VSiN Analytics College Football Report for Week 1

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VSiN Analytics College Football Report for Week 1

The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 1. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team go through when handicapping each week’s college football board.

 

College Football Stability Score plays for Week 1

These college football Stability Scores provide a quantitative way to determine each team’s level of stability compared with how they finished the prior season. It is one of the foremost strategies Makinen employs every year to find value early. The thought is that teams in more stable year-to-year situations are better bets early while those that have undergone a lot of change in the offseason should be faded.

Steve keeps a handy chart on the Stability Scores of each FBS team and publishes them weekly for Weeks 0-3. He has found that a Stability Mismatch score of 8 is the minimum on which he will consider a play for this thought process. Here are this week’s qualifying plays. There is a separate article on VSiN.com that goes in depth about these plays.

THURSDAY

KENT STATE at UCF (-37)

Stability Advantage: UCF by 14

NC STATE at CONNECTICUT (+14.5)

Stability Advantage: CONNECTICUT by 9

NEBRASKA at MINNESOTA (-7)

Stability Advantage: MINNESOTA by 14

FRIDAY

STANFORD at HAWAII (+3.5)

Stability Advantage: HAWAII by 17

SATURDAY

TEXAS STATE at BAYLOR (-27.5)

Stability Advantage: BAYLOR by 11

ARKANSAS STATE at OKLAHOMA (-35)

Stability Advantage: OKLAHOMA by 8

NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+8.5) at BOSTON COLLEGE

Stability Advantage: NORTHERN ILLINOIS by 10

OLD DOMINION at VIRGINIA TECH (-16)

Stability Advantage: VIRGINIA TECH by 10

UTAH STATE at IOWA (-25.5)

Stability Advantage: IOWA by 8

TOLEDO (+9.5) at ILLINOIS

Stability Advantage: TOLEDO by 8

COLORADO at TCU (-20.5)

Stability Advantage: TCU by 11

MASSACHUSETTS (+35) at AUBURN

Stability Advantage: MASSACHUSETTS by 9

NEW MEXICO at TEXAS A&M (-38)

Stability Advantage: TEXAS A&M by 11

SOUTH FLORIDA at WESTERN KENTUCKY (-11.5)

Stability Advantage: WESTERN KENTUCKY by 9

CALIFORNIA (-6.5) at NORTH TEXAS

Stability Advantage: CALIFORNIA by 8

Strategies using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits data

VSiN.com’s BETTING SPLITS pages are among our most touted features and a fantastic resource for bettors. We have built these pages using the data DraftKings provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines and totals. In an article published in the 2023 College Football Betting Guide, Makinen outlined 13 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the ’22 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Tuesday. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

DK Betting Splits system #1: When 80% or more of the HANDLE was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 40-47 ATS (46%). In other words, if you saw the big GREEN lights on the VSiN betting splits HANDLE page 80% or higher, it was best to fade it.

System matches (FADE ALL): MICHIGAN, OKLAHOMA, TENNESSEE, TEXAS, WASHINGTON, WISCONSIN, COLORADO ST, UTSA, ALABAMA, RUTGERS, LSU

DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of BETS were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 66-76 ATS (46.5%). Again, if you see the big GREEN lights on the VSiN betting splits # of BETS page 75% or higher, it was best to fade it.

System matches (FADE ALL): MICHIGAN, PURDUE, OHIO STATE, TEXAS, WASHINGTON, WISCONSIN, ALABAMA, TEXAS TECH, RUTGERS, LSU 

DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the HANDLE was on ROAD FAVORITES for an ATS wager, this majority group was just 58-85 ATS (40.6%). More recreational bettors love road favorites because they are usually the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer.

System matches (FADE ALL): OHIO STATE, UTSA, ARMY, TEXAS TECH, OREGON STATE, CLEMSON

DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, when the majority NUMBER of BETS was on ROAD FAVORITES for an ATS wager, this majority group was just 59-75 ATS (44.0%). Bet volume usually covers more public action, and again, recreational bettors love road favorites but don’t typically fare well long term.

System matches (FADE ALL): OHIO STATE, UTSA, ARMY, TEXAS TECH, OREGON STATE, CLEMSON

DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority of the HANDLE was on ROAD UNDERDOGS for an ATS wager, this majority group was 100-82 ATS (54.9%). Now, 54.9% is less than the usual systems we like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates and goes to show that being on the “smart” side of the majority handle can pay off. Remember, higher handle feels less “public” than higher bet counts.

System matches (PLAY ALL): NORTHERN ILLINOIS, LOUISIANA TECH, AKRON, UMASS, SOUTH ALABAMA, SAM HOUSTON STATE, COASTAL CAROLINA

DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority NUMBER of BETS was on ROAD UNDERDOGS for an ATS wager, this majority group was 98-75 ATS (56.6%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #5 actually and suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.

System matches (PLAY BOTH): UTAH STATE, COLORADO

DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of NUMBER of BETS backed a team in an ATS wager in NON-SATURDAY games, their 2022 season record was 72-46 (61%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.

System matches (PLAY ALL): RUTGERS, OREGON STATE, LSU, CLEMSON

DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority of the HANDLE backed a team in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager but the line moved toward the OPPOSITE team, this majority group was just 38-49 ATS (43.7%). This can be a tricky one to avoid, as it can be referred to as a trap in booking circles. The theory is that the more money a team gets on it, the more likely the line moves toward that team. This is the opposite scenario, and usually the public loses.

System matches (FADE ALL): NORTHERN ILLINOIS, KENTUCKY, MICHIGAN, PURDUE, LOUISIANA TECH, TENNESSEE, LIBERTY, TEMPLE, WASHINGTON, WESTERN KENTUCKY, ILLINOIS, TEXAS TECH, LSU

DK Betting Splits system #10: The average college football total last year was 54.5. In games in which the totals reached 57 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority HANDLE bettors favored the UNDER, they were relatively sharp, going 35-21 (62.5%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 56 of 776 games.

System matches (PLAY UNDER): COLORADO/TCU (O/U at 63), USF-WESTERN KENTUCKY (O/U at 70), TEXAS STATE-BAYLOR (O/U at 59)

DK Betting Splits system #11: On games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority HANDLE bettors siding with the UNDER were 15-8 (65.2%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting UNDER’s, this didn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority were sharp.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER): UTAH STATE-IOWA (O/U at 43.5), NORTHWESTERN-RUTGERS (O/U at 39.5)

DK Betting Splits system #13: On games in which the HANDLE has a majority on totals and the # of BETS has the opposite majority, the majority HANDLE plays went 112-93 (54.6%). This could be described as more sharp action being displayed by the majority handle.

System matches:

PLAY OVER: LOUISIANA TECH-SMU (O/U at 66.5), ARMY-LOUISIANA MONROE (O/U at 56.5)

PLAY UNDER: FRESNO ST-PURDUE (o/u at 47), BSGU-LIBERTY (o/u at 49.5), TOLEDO-ILLINOIS (o/u at 45.5), WVU-PENN ST (o/u at 49), TX TECH-WYOMING (o/u at 50.5), SAM HOUSTON-BYU (o/u at 46.5), CLEMSON-DUKE (o/u at 55.5)

CFB opening week(s) concepts to consider

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Eight college football opening week(s) concepts to consider detailing systems that only apply for Weeks 0 and 1.

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #1: HUGE FAVORITES (-37.5 points or more) have been automatic in the opening week(s) of college football since 2013, going 11-0 SU and ATS!

System matches: PLAY ALABAMA (-39.5 vs. Middle Tennessee State), PLAY TEXAS A&M (-38 vs. New Mexico), PLAY USC (-38 vs. Nevada)

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #2: Home-field advantage means a lot in early season games between unfamiliar Power 5 non-conference foes. The hosts in these matchups have gone 24-12 SU and 21-12-3 ATS over the last decade.

System matches: PLAY TENNESSEE (-28 vs Virginia), PLAY PENN STATE (-20.5 vs West Virginia), PLAY TCU (-20.5 vs Colorado), PLAY UTAH (-6.5 vs Florida)

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #3: Small favorites win the early NEUTRAL field showdowns between non-conference Power 5 foes, as those laying less than a touchdown are on a 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS (75%) run since ’13.

System matches: PLAY NORTH CAROLINA (-2.5 vs. South Carolina), PLAY LSU (-2.5 vs. Florida State)

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #4: There is a massive swing in expectation to win and/or cover when Group of 5 teams square off with Power 5 teams in Weeks 0/1 over the last decade. As hosts, the Group of 5 teams have gone 27-15 ATS (64.3%). On the road or in neutral games, these Group of 5 teams are 72-101 ATS (41.6%) in that same time span. Bet accordingly.

System matches: PLAY HOME TEAMS (in CAPS): Stanford at HAWAII, California at NORTH TEXAS, Washington State at COLORADO STATE, Oregon State at SAN JOSE STATE, Texas Tech at WYOMING, NC State at CONNECTICUT

System matches: FADE ROAD TEAMS (in CAPS): MASSACHUSETTS at Auburn, MIDDLE TENN STATE at Alabama, NEW MEXICO at Texas A&M, NEVADA at USC, RICE at Texas, EAST CAROLINA at Michigan, KENT STATE at UCF, ARKANSAS STATE at Oklahoma, SAN JOSE STATE at USC, BALL STATE at Kentucky, TEXAS STATE at Baylor, BUFFALO at Wisconsin, UTAH STATE at Iowa, SAM HOUSTON STATE at BYU, HAWAII at Vanderbilt, MIAMI (Ohio) at Miami (Fla.), COASTAL CAROLINA at UCLA, CENTRAL MICHIGAN at Michigan State, BOISE STATE at Washington, OLD DOMINION at Virginia Tech, TOLEDO at Illinois, NORTHERN ILLINOIS at Boston College, FRESNO STATE at Purdue, TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO at Houston

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #5: FAVORITES have been far more reliable at HOME and in NEUTRAL games in the opening week(s) of college football since 2013 (166-138 ATS 54.6%), than on the ROAD (38-55 ATS 40.9%).

System matches: PLAY FAVORITES at HOME/NEUTRAL, FADE FAVORITES on the ROAD

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #6: Oddsmakers are leading you to water on low-totaled games in Weeks 0/1, especially with bigger favorites, as in games with totals of 48 or less and a favorite of 4 points or more, UNDER the total is 25-10 (71.4%) since 2013.

System matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): Miami (Ohio)-Miami (Fla.), Central Michigan-Michigan State, Northwestern-Rutgers, Utah State-Iowa, Nebraska-Minnesota, NC State-Connecticut, Florida-Utah, Fresno State-Purdue, Army-Louisiana Monroe, Toledo-Illinois, Sam Houston State-BYU

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #7: Non-conference games between Group of 5 opponents involving home underdogs in Weeks 0/1 have been explosive, particularly when not expected to be. In fact, since ’13, when totals on these games involving home dogs (or pick-’ems) are 64 or less, the result has been 22 OVERs, six UNDERs (78.6%).

System matches: PLAY OVER in Army-Louisiana Monroe (O/U set at 46.5)

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #8: Non-conference games between Group of 5 opponents featuring a home favorite have been unexpectedly lower scoring, producing 31 UNDERs, 17 OVERs (64.6%) since ’13.

System matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): Louisiana Tech-SMU (O/U at 66.5), South Florida-Western Kentucky (O/U at 70), Bowling Green-Liberty (O/U at 49.5), Akron-Temple (O/U at 56.5), South Alabama-Tulane (O/U at 52.5)

College football Game 2 reactionary systems

These systems take into account a team’s season opener and how it affects their second game.

CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #1 — FCS letdown: Teams that faced an FBS foe in Game 1 and are favored by 30 points or more versus an FCS opponent for Game 2 have gone just 72-90-5 ATS (44.5%) since 2012.

System matches: FADE NOTRE DAME (vs. Tennessee State), FADE SAN DIEGO STATE (vs. Idaho State), FADE VANDERBILT (vs. Alabama A&M)

CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #2 — FCS Game 2 foes not an easy rebound: Teams coming off an FBS loss in Game 1 and favored big (>=24 points) over an FCS team in Game 2 have gone just 36-58-1 ATS (38.3%) since 2012.

System match: FADE OHIO (vs. Long Island)

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. This material was taken from an article published in late August. REVENGE is defined as a team having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

Best and Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since ’16)

Best

* LSU is 14-5 SU and 12-5 ATS (71%) in revenge mode since ’16

System match: PLAY LSU (-2.5 vs Florida State)

* UTAH is 13-7 SU and 14-6 ATS (70%) in revenge mode since ’16

System match: PLAY UTAH (-6.5 vs Florida)

College football revenge systems

Home/road revenge line range angle that has thrived

Teams playing as huge underdogs at home in revenge games have been almost automatic covers, as those catching 30 points or more have gone 1-19 SU but 16-4 ATS (80%) in their last 20 tries.

System match: PLAY INDIANA (+30 vs. Ohio State)

This week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN WEEKLY RATINGS page under the College Football tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS, according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. VIRGINIA +28 (+7.4), 2. KENT STATE +37 (+4.4), NORTHWESTERN +6.5 (+4.3), 4. ARKANSAS STATE +35 (+2.7), 5. DUKE +13 (+2.7), 6. RICE +35 (+2.5), 7. BUFFALO +27.5 (+2.3), 8. EAST CAROLINA +36 (+2.0), 9. INDIANA +30 (+1.8), 10. OLD DOMINION +16 (+1.6)

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES, according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. BYU -20 (+5.1), 2. LIBERTY -9.5 (+2.7), 3. TEMPLE -10 (+2.6), 4. WASHINGTON STATE -12 (+2.1), 5. TULANE -6.5 (+2.0), 6. LOUISVILLE -7.5 (+1.8), 7(tie). UCLA -14.5 (+1.6) and PURDUE -4 (+1.6), 9. ILLINOIS -9.5 (+1.5), 10. MICHIGAN STATE -14.5 (+1.0)

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS, according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. SAM HOUSTON STATE +20 (+6.2), 2(tie). NEW MEXICO +38 (+5.7) and COLORADO STATE +12 (+5.7), 4. DUKE +13 (+5.6), 5(tie). UMASS +35 (+4.5) and NORTHWESTERN +6.5 (+4.5), 7. LOUISIANA-MONROE +10 (+3.9), 8. OLD DOMINION +16 (+3.5), 9. INDIANA +30 (+3.3), 10. BUFFALO +27.5 (+3.1)

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES, according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. OKLAHOMA -35 (+7.9), 2. STANFORD -3.5 (+6), 3. LIBERTY -9.5 (+4.6), 4. TCU -20.5 (+3.8), 5. WESTERN KENTUCKY -11.5 (+3.5), 6. NORTH CAROLINA -2.5 (+2.1), 7. IOWA -25.5 (+1.9), 8. LSU -2.5 (+1.8), 9. PURDUE -4 (+1.7), 10(tie). MICHIGAN STATE -14.5 (+1.3) and TEMPLE -10 (+1.3)

This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER, according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1(tie). CAL-NORTH TEXAS OVER 54 (+5.9) and NORTHWESTERN-RUTGERS OVER 40.5 (+5.9), 3. KENT STATE-UCF OVER 56.5 (+3.9), 4. LOUISVILLE-GEORGIA TECH OVER 48.5 (+3.6), 5. TOLEDO-ILLINOIS OVER 46 (+3.5), 6. NEBRASKA-MINNESOTA OVER 43.5 (+3.4), 7. BUFFALO-WISCONSIN OVER 54.5 (+3.2), 8(tie). UTAH STATE-IOWA OVER 45 (+3.1) and TEXAS TECH-WYOMING OVER 50.5 (+3.1) and MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE-ALABAMA OVER 50.5 (+3.1)

This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER, according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. UTSA-HOUSTON UNDER 60.5 (-6.1), 2. COLORADO-TCU UNDER 64 (-5.9), 3. COASTAL CAROLINA-UCLA UNDER 65.5 (-5.2), 4. NORTH CAROLINA-SOUTH CAROLINA UNDER 64.5 (-4.8), 5. TEXAS STATE-BAYLOR UNDER 62 (-4.4), 6. BALL STATE-KENTUCKY UNDER 49 (-2.7), 7. UMASS-AUB UNDER 52.5 (-2.6), 8. NEVADA-USC UNDER 66 (-2.5), 9. AKRON-TEMPLE UNDER 56.5 (-2.3), 10. STANFORD-HAWAII UNDER 59 (-1.6)

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS, according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. WYOMING +14 (+7.4), 2. NEW MEXICO -38 (+5.9), 3. CENTRAL MICHIGAN +14.5 (+4.2), 4. RICE +35 (+3.5), 5. HOUSTON +1 (+3.4), 6. EAST CAROLINA +36 (+3.1), 7. DUKE +13 (+2.9), 8. ARKANSAS STATE +35 (+2.6), 9. LOUISIANA-MONROE +10 (+2.1), 10. OLD DOMINION +16 (+1.9)

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES, according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. OHIO STATE -30 (+8.1), 2. STANFORD -3.5 (+7.7), 3. BYU -20 (+5.9), 4(tie). MIAMI (FLA.) -17 (+4.2) and LIBERTY -9.5 (+4.2), 6. NORTH CAROLINA -2.5 (+4.1), 7. LOUISVILLE -7.5 (+3.8), 8. WASHINGTON STATE -12 (+3.3), 9. TEMPLE -10 (+3.2), 10. PURDUE -4 (+2.6)

This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER, according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. FLORIDA-UTAH OVER 45.5 (+8.9), 2. CAL-NORTH TEXAS OVER 54 (+6.9), 3. SAM HOUSTON STATE-BYU OVER 46.5 (+5.1), 4. OREGON STATE-SAN JOSE STATE OVER 54.5 (+4.2), 5. LOUISVILLE-GEORGIA TECH OVER 48.5 (+3.8), 6. FRESNO STATE-PURDUE OVER 48 (+3.7), 7. ARMY-LOUISIANA MONROE OVER 47.5 (+3.5), 8. TEXAS TECH-WYOMING OVER 50.5 (+3.4), 9. NEBRASKA-MINNESOTA OVER 43.5 (+3.3), 10. KENT STATE-UCF OVER 56.5 (+3.1)

This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER, according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. STANFORD-HAWAII UNDER 59 (-5.3), 2. UMASS-AUB UNDER 52.5 (-4.4), 3. TEXAS STATE-BAYLOR UNDER 62 (-3.9), 4. NORTH CAROLINA-SOUTH CAROLINA UNDER 64.5 (-3.4), 5. COLORADO-TCU UNDER 64 (-3.3), 6. BUFFALO-WISCONSIN UNDER 54.5 (-3.0), 7. NEVADA-USC UNDER 66 (-2.9), 8. OLD DOMINION-VIRGINIA TECH UNDER 48.5 (-2.4), 9. COASTAL CAROLINA-UCLA UNDER 65.5 (-2.0), 10. AKRON-TEMPLE UNDER 56.5 (-1.9)

Top College Football Team Situational Trends

These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

* AIR FORCE is 28-12 (70.0%) ATS in Non-Conference games since ’14

System match: PLAY AIR FORCE (vs. Robert Morris)

* BOWLING GREEN is 9-27 (25.0%) ATS as an Underdog since ’19 and only 1-11 (8.3%) ATS in Non-Conference games since ’19

System match: FADE BOWLING GREEN (+9.5 at Liberty)

* CLEMSON is 17-6 (73.9%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since ’20

System match: PLAY CLEMSON (-13 at Duke)

* FLORIDA STATE is 5-15 (25.0%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since ’19

System match: FADE FLORIDA STATE (+2.5 vs. LSU)

* FRESNO STATE is 21-7 (25.0%) UNDER the total since ’21

System match: PLAY UNDER Fresno State-Purdue (O/U at 48)

* JAMES MADISON is 12-3 (80.0%) ATS as Favorite since ’20

System match: PLAY JAMES MADISON (vs. Bucknell)

* KANSAS is 0-7 (0.0%) ATS as Favorite since ’18

System match: FADE KANSAS (vs. Missouri State)

* LSU is 19-7 (73.1%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since ’19

System match: PLAY LSU (-2.5 vs. Florida State)

* MARYLAND is 13-4 (76.5%) ATS in Non-Conference games since ’17

System match: PLAY MARYLAND (vs. Towson)

* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 19-7 (26.9%) UNDER the total since ’21 and they are 11-3 (78.6%) ATS at Home since ’21

System match: PLAY OVER in SE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI STATE, PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE (vs SE Louisiana)

* SAM HOUSTON STATE is 8-0 (100.0%) ATS as Underdog since ’17

System match: PLAY SAM HOUSTON STATE (+20 at BYU)

* SAN DIEGO STATE is 34-13 (72.3%) UNDER the total since ’19

System match: PLAY UNDER in Idaho State-San Diego State

* TEXAS A&M is 15-3 (83.3%) ATS in Non-Conference games since ’18

System match: PLAY TEXAS A&M (-38 vs. New Mexico)

* TULANE is 35-14 (71.4%) ATS as Favorite since ’14

System match: PLAY TULANE (-6.5 vs. South Alabama)

* UAB is 14-3 (82.4%) ATS at Home since ’20

System match: PLAY UAB (vs. NC A&T)

* UCLA is 6-16 (27.3%) ATS in Non-Conference games since ’15

System match: FADE UCLA (-14.5 vs. Coastal Carolina)

* UNLV is 15-5 (75.0%) ATS in Non-Conference games since ’17

System match: PLAY UNLV (vs. Bryant)

* UTEP is 3-14 (17.6%) ATS at Home since ’20

System match: FADE UTEP (vs. Incarnate Word)

* W KENTUCKY is 5-16 (23.8%) ATS as Favorite since ’19

System match: FADE WESTERN KENTUCKY (-11.5 VS. USF)

Top College Football Head-to-Head Series Trends

These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:

AKRON at TEMPLE

* TEMPLE is 6-0 SU and ATS versus Akron since ’07

System match: PLAY TEMPLE (-10 vs. Akron)

OHIO STATE at INDIANA

* OVER the total has converted in the last six Ohio State-Indiana matchups

System match: PLAY OVER in OHIO STATE-INDIANA (O/U at 59.5)