VSiN Analytics College Football Report for Week 12
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 12. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.
Strategies using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits data
VSiN.com’s Betting Splits pages are among our most touted features and a fantastic resource for bettors. We have built these pages using the data DraftKings provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines and totals. In an article published in the 2023 College Football Betting Guide, Makinen outlined 13 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the ’22 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.
Here are the DK Betting Splits College Football Systems and their updated performance records (as of Monday):
CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season through Saturday Nov. 4, when 80% or more of the HANDLE was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 72-84 ATS (46%). This angle has matched the same 46% record in ’23 as it did in ’22. If you see the big GREEN lights on the VSiN betting splits HANDLE page 80% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System matches (FADE ALL): WESTERN MICHIGAN, PITTSBURGH, TULANE, MICHIGAN, OLE MISS, OHIO STATE, GEORGIA, WEST VIRGINIA, LIBERTY, OKLAHOMA, JAMES MADISON, JACKSONVILLE STATE, TEXAS STATE, TULSA, UNLV, CALIFORNIA, TROY, AUBURN, LSU, SAN JOSE STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of BETS were on a particular side of an ATS wager from start of ’22 season to Nov. 5, this majority group was just 138-158 ATS (46.6%). Last season it was 46.5%, this year it is 46.7%, maintaining incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big GREEN lights on the VSiN betting splits # of BETS page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI OHIO, TULANE, IOWA, MICHIGAN, LOUISVILLE, OLE MISS, OHIO STATE, GEORGIA, WEST VIRGINIA, LIBERTY, OREGON, OKLAHOMA, MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WYOMING, JAMES MADISON, JACKSONVILLE STATE, RICE, TEXAS STATE, COLORADO STATE, DUKE, OKLAHOMA STATE, CALIFORNIA, TCU, TROY, MISSOURI, WASHINGTON, KENTUCKY, GEORGIA TECH, LSU, SAN JOSE STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the HANDLE was on ROAD FAVORITES for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group is just 134-160 ATS (45.6%). More recreational bettors love road favorites because they are usually the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors have improved on this system in ’23, but there is still plenty of season to go.
System matches (FADE ALL): TOLEDO, TULANE, KANSAS STATE, MICHIGAN, SMU, LOUISVILLE, GEORGIA, OREGON, OKLAHOMA, TEXAS STATE, DUKE, OKLAHOMA STATE, CALIFORNIA, KENTUCKY
CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, when the majority NUMBER of BETS was on ROAD FAVORITES for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone 146-157 ATS (48.2%). Again, an improvement for bettors has been seen in 2023. Still, bet volume usually covers more public action, and again, recreational bettors love road favorites but don’t typically fare well long term.
System matches (FADE ALL): TOLEDO, COASTAL CAROLINA, TULANE, KANSAS STATE, MICHIGAN, SMU, LOUISVILLE, GEORGIA, OREGON, OKLAHOMA, RICE, TEXAS STATE, DUKE, OKLAHOMA STATE, CALIFORNIA, KENTUCKY
CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority of the HANDLE has been on ROAD UNDERDOGS for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone 130-119 ATS (52.2%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates and goes to show that being on the “smart” side of the majority handle can pay off. Remember, higher handle feels less “public” than higher bet counts.
System matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): WESTERN MICHIGAN, COLORADO, EAST CAROLINA, KENT STATE, HAWAII, NEVADA, NEW MEXICO, UCLA, UNLV, NORTH CAROLINA, NC STATE, SAM HOUSTON STATE, MARSHALL, FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority NUMBER of BETS has backed ROAD UNDERDOGS for an ATS wager over the past season and a half, this majority group has gone 118-102 ATS (53.6%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #5 actually, and though down a bit for ’23, it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System matches (PLAY ALL): WESTERN MICHIGAN, COLORADO, UTAH, UNLV, NORTH CAROLINA, NC STATE, WASHINGTON
CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of NUMBER of BETS has backed a team in an ATS wager in NON-SATURDAY games, their 2022 and 2023 season record has been 110-72 (60.4%). This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday. Keep this in mind as continuing weekday MACtion and the ever-popular Thanksgiving Friday games are still on tap.
System matches (PLAY ALL): TOLEDO, EASTERN MICHIGAN, WESTERN MICHIGAN, MIAMI OHIO, OHIO, PITT, UTSA, COLORADO
CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: When the majority of the HANDLE backed the team with more season wins in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager over the past season and a half, this majority group has gone just 235-282 ATS (43.7%), generally maintaining consistency from ’22 to ’23. More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is the eternal equalizer.
System matches (FADE ALL): TOLEDO, EASTERN MICHIGAN, OHIO, MIAMI OHIO, UTSA, MICHIGAN, OLE MISS, PENN STATE, LOUISVILLE, OKLAHOMA, TULANE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, NORTHWESTERN, LIBERTY, JACKSONVILLE STATE, JAMES MADISON, WEST VIRGINIA, DUKE, TEXAS STATE, GEORGIA, NOTRE DAME, IOWA, NORTH CAROLINA, NC STATE, TCU, TROY, OHIO STATE, OREGON, OKLAHOMA STATE, GEORGIA SOUTHERN, CALIFORNIA, MISSOURI, FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL, KENTUCKY, LSU, SAN JOSE STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: The average college football total has steadied at about 54. In games since the start of the ’22 season when the totals reached 57 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority HANDLE bettors favored the UNDER, they have been relatively sharp, going 49-34 (59%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 83 of 1321 games.
System matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): USF-UTSA, LOUISIANA MONROE-OLE MISS, UMASS-LIBERTY, TEXAS STATE-ARKANSAS STATE, NORTH TEXAS-TULSA, UCLA-USC, OKLA STATE-HOUSTON, BAYLOR-TCU, OLD DOMINION-GEORGIA SOUTHERN, BOISE STATE-UTAH STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #11: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority HANDLE bettors siding with the UNDER have gone 24-10 (70.6%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting UNDER’s, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays but the super handle majority are sharp.
System matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): COASTAL CAROLINA-ARMY, ILLINOIS-IOWA, EAST CAROLINA-NAVY, RUTGERS-PENN STATE, KENT STATE-BALL STATE, NC STATE-VIRGINIA TECH, NEBRASKA-WISCONSIN
CFB DK Betting Splits system #12: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of BETS bettors bucking the low total and siding with the OVER have gone 43-25 (63.2%). This system has actually gone up in win percentage this season. Again, not a ton of plays here, but the more public option of the number of BETS has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System matches (PLAY OVER ALL): UTAH-ARIZONA, HAWAII-WYOMING
College Football Regular-Season Finale Systems
These are betting systems involving teams playing in their regular-season finale games
CFB Regular-Season Finale System #3
In season finale games since 2015, TEAMS SCORING more than 43 PPG are 34-8 SU and 26-15-1 ATS (63.4%) versus teams scoring less.
System match: PLAY USC (-6.5 vs. UCLA)
College Football Revenge Handicapping
The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. This material was taken from an article published in late August. REVENGE is defined as having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.
Best and Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since ’16)
Best
* LOUISIANA is 10-9 SU and 13-6 ATS (68.4%) in revenge mode since ’16
System match: PLAY LOUISIANA (+16 at Troy)
* KENT STATE is 9-16 SU and 16-9 ATS (64%) in revenge mode since ’16
System match: PLAY KENT STATE ATS (+12.5 at Ball State)
* KENTUCKY is 15-15 SU and 19-11 ATS (63.3%) in revenge mode since ’16
System match: PLAY KENTUCKY (-1.5 at South Carolina)
* OREGON STATE is 16-28 SU and 27-16 ATS (63%) in revenge mode since ’16
System match: PLAY OREGON STATE (-1 vs. Washington)
Worst
* NEW MEXICO is 6-34 SU and 13-25 ATS (34.2%) in revenge mode since ’16
System match: FADE NEW MEXICO (+24 at Fresno State)
* MASSACHUSETTS is 3-19 SU and 9-13 ATS (40.9%) in revenge mode since ’16
System match: FADE UMASS (+27.5 at Liberty)
* UTAH STATE is 8-16 SU and 7-17 ATS (29%) in revenge mode since ’16
System match: FADE UTAH STATE (+3.5 vs. Boise State)
* APPALACHIAN STATE is 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS (33.3%) in revenge mode since ’16
System match: FADE APPALACHIAN STATE (+11 at James Madison)
College football revenge systems
Home/Road revenge line range angles that have thrived
Double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 46-33 ATS (58.2%) since 2016.
System match: PLAY TOLEDO (-10 at Bowling Green)
Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out
Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 96-114 ATS (45.7%) since 2016.
System matches: FADE TOLEDO (-10 at Bowling Green), FADE MICHIGAN STATE (+4.5 at Indiana), FADE EAST CAROLINA (+3 at Navy), FADE RICE (-2 at Charlotte)
Current won-lost records are a good indicator of revenge chances
College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 87-14 SU and 67-30-4 ATS (69.1%) since 2016.
System match: PLAY MIAMI OHIO (-9 vs. Buffalo)
Key stats of the team seeking revenge matter
Better defensive teams are more successful in exacting revenge than prolific offense. Since the start of the 2016 season, teams allowing 24 PPG or less have gone 597-535 ATS (52.7%) as compared to those scoring 35 PPG or more, 354-383 ATS (48%).
System matches (GOOD DEFENSIVE TEAMS ALLOWING <= 24 PPG): TOLEDO, MIAMI OHIO, ARMY, TENNESSEE, MARYLAND, VIRGINIA TECH, RUTGERS, EAST CAROLINA, NORTHWESTERN, IOWA, ARIZONA, OREGON STATE, UCLA, IOWA STATE, MISSOURI, NEBRASKA
Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is allowing 35 PPG or more have been very successful, going 203-159 ATS (56.1%) since 2016.
System match: PLAY STANFORD (+6.5 vs. California)
College Football Systems based on AP poll rankings
The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll
CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 — Games featuring two ranked teams
In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, HOME TEAMS are 167-80 SU and 142-97-8 ATS (59.4%).
System matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA, TENNESSEE, OREGON STATE
CFB AP Poll Rankings System #2 — Road ranked teams vs. non-ranked hosts
In games Week 12 or later in the season, RANKED ROAD TEAMS are 94-26 SU and 68-50-2 ATS (57.6%) vs. non-ranked home teams since 2017.
System matches (PLAY ALL): MICHIGAN, OREGON, TEXAS, LOUISVILLE, OKLAHOMA, TULANE, NORTH CAROLINA, KANSAS STATE, OKLAHOMA STATE
Digging deeper into this data, you will find that when these RANKED ROAD TEAMS are favored by more than six points against non-ranked hosts, they have gone 80-10 SU and 54-34-2 ATS (61.4%%) in that same span: Week 12 and later.
System matches (PLAY ALL): MICHIGAN, OREGON, TEXAS, OKLAHOMA, TULANE, KANSAS STATE, OKLAHOMA STATE
CFB AP Poll Rankings System #3 — Home ranked teams vs. non-ranked visitors
In games Week 12 or later in the season, there has been a huge discrepancy in the performance of RANKED HOME TEAMS against non-ranked visitors at the 12-point favorite line mark. As favorites of 12 points or more, they have gone 84-12 SU but just 37-53-2 ATS (41.1%), but at any other line, including underdog, they are 30-4 SU and 23-11 ATS (67.6%) since ’17.
System matches (FADE ALL ATS): OHIO STATE, FLORIDA STATE, ALABAMA, PENN STATE, OLE MISS, LSU, JAMES MADISON (if -12 or higher), NOTRE DAME, LIBERTY
System match (PLAY): MISSOURI
Extreme stat next-game CFB betting systems
Upset losses as huge favorites snowball
Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 38-63 SU and 34-63-4 ATS (35.1%) in the follow-up contest since 2012.
System match: FADE AIR FORCE (-3 vs. UNLV)
Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams
Both college football teams coming off a game that was decided by a margin 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next game, going just 125-170 ATS (42.4%) over the last decade-plus.
System matches: FADE AUBURN (-22 vs. New Mexico State), FADE ARKANSAS (-30.5 vs. FIU), FADE UCF (+2.5 at Tx Tech), FADE OKLAHOMA STATE (-7 at Houston)
Conference wins while struggling offensively are momentum-builders
Over the last decade, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 71-41 ATS (63.4%) in the follow-up contest.
System matches: PLAY MIAMI OHIO (-9 vs. Buffalo), PLAY ARIZONA STATE (+22.5 vs. Oregon), PLAY OHIO (-10.5 vs. Central Michigan), PLAY EAST CAROLINA (+3 at Navy)
This week’s College Football Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN WEEKLY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. WAKE FOREST +24.5 (+9.2), 2. SOUTH CAROLINA +2 (+6.1), 3 (tie). BOWLING GREEN +10 (+4.1) and SYRACUSE +6.5 (+4.1), 5. EAST CAROLINA +3 (+3.6), 6. WASHINGTON +2.5 (+3.0), 7. MIAMI FLA +1 (+2.9), 8. SAM HOUSTON STATE +12 (+2.7), 9 (tie). NEVADA +11.5 (+2.4) and NC STATE +2.5 (+2.4)
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. BALL STATE -12.5 (+5.1), 2. MICHIGAN -19 (+4.6), 3. MIAMI OHIO -8.5 (+4.5), 4. TROY -16 (+3.9), 5 (tie). BOISE STATE -3 (+3.7) and SAN JOSE STATE -14.5 (+3.7), 7. CALIFORNIA -6.5 (+3.6), 8. NORTH TEXAS -2 (+3.3), 9. MIDDLE TENN STATE -7.5 (+3.0), 10. JACKSONVILLE STATE -8.5 (+2.7)
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. ARIZONA STATE +23.5 (+9.0), 2. SOUTH CAROLINA +2 (+6.2), 3. TENNESSEE +10.5 (+4.8), 4. GEORGIA STATE +31 (+4.6), 5. NORTH CAROLINA +7 (+3.8), 6. BOWLING GREEN +10 (+3.5), 7. FL ATLANTIC +9.5 (+3.4), 8. NORTHWESTERN +2 (+3.3), 9 (tie). SAN DIEGO STATE +14.5 (+3.2) and SYRACUSE +6.5 (+3.2)
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. OKLAHOMA -24.5 (+6.1), 2. MICHIGAN -19 (+4.8), 3. OLE MISS -37.5 (+4.4), 4. NOTRE DAME -24.5 (+4.3), 5. PENN STATE -20.5 (+4.1), 6. AIR FORCE -3 (+3.4), 7. TEXAS -7.5 (+2.7), 8. OHIO STATE -27.5 (+2.5), 9 (tie). RICE -2.5 (+1.7) and LIBERTY -27.5 (+1.7)
This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. ILLINOIS-IOWA OVER 30.5 (+9.9), 2. BUFFALO-MIAMI OHIO OVER 39.5 (+7.8), 3. ECU-NAVY OVER 32.5 (+5.7), 4. GEORGIA-TENNESSEE OVER 59.5 (+3.8), 5. BOSTON COLLEGE-PITT OVER 47 (+3.6), 6. BAYLOR-TCU OVER 58.5 (+3.5), 7. LOUISVILLE-MIAMI FLA OVER 46.5 (+3.3), 8 (tie). KENT STATE-BALL STATE OVER 42 (+3.2) and HAWAII-WYOMING OVER 45 (+3.2), 10. UCF-TEXAS TECH OVER 60 (+3.1)
This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. SMU-MEMPHIS UNDER 66.5 (-3.7), 2. GEORGIA STATE-LSU UNDER 71 (-3.4), 3. WESTERN MICHIGAN-NORTHERN ILLINOIS UNDER 56.5 (-3.0), 4. USF-UTSA UNDER 67 (-2.5), 5. LOUISIANA MONROE-OLE MISS UNDER 62 (-2.5), 6. WASHINGTON-OREGON STATE UNDER 63.5 (-2.1) and TEMPLE-UAB UNDER 64.5 (-2.1), 8. UCLA-USC UNDER 65.5 (-1.8), 9. CAL-STANFORD UNDER 58 (-1.5), 10. NORTH TEXAS-TULSA UNDER 66.5 (-1.4)
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. LOUISIANA TECH +8.5 (+9.5), 2. UMASS +27.5 (+8.9), 3. BYU +24.5 (+7.5), 4. MIAMI FLA +1 (+7.2), 5. FLORIDA +12 (+5.7), 6. WASHINGTON +2.5 (+5.6), 7. MICHIGAN STATE +4.5 (+4.8), 8 (tie). KANSAS +8 (+4.7) and NEW MEXICO STATE +23.5 (+4.7), 10. LOUISIANA +16 (+4.5)
This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. AIR FORCE -3 (+13.2), 2. MISSISSIPPI STATE -14 (+9.4), 3. TEXAS -7.5 (+8.3), 4. TEXAS STATE -3.5 (+7.8), 5. WISCONSIN -5 (+7.6), 6. NORTHERN ILLINOIS -4.5 (+5.9), 7. WYOMING -13.5 (+4.7), 8. TULANE -9.5 (+4.2), 9. WASHINGTON STATE -4.5 (+3.0), 10. UTSA -15.5 (+2.9)
This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. KANSAS STATE-KANSAS OVER 56.5 (+5.9), 2. UTAH-ARIZONA OVER 45 (+5.1), 3. TULANE-FAU OVER 47 (+4.4), 4. UNC-CLEMSON OVER 58 (+4.0), 5. TEXAS-IOWA STATE OVER 48 (+3.8), 6. PURDUE-NORTHWESTERN OVER 46.5 (+2.6), 7. WAKE FOREST-NOTRE DAME OVER 47 (+2.5), 8(tie). ECU-NAVY OVER 32.5 (+2.3) and LOUISIANA TECH-JACKSONVILLE STATE OVER 54.5 (+2.3), 10. ILLINOIS-IOWA OVER 30.5 (+2.1)
This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings matches: 1. OKLAHOMA STATE-HOUSTON UNDER 59 (-4.8), 2. FLORIDA-MISSOURI UNDER 59 (-4.7), 3. TEMPLE-UAB UNDER 64.5 (-4.0), 4. OKLAHOMA-BYU UNDER 57 (-3.5), 5. COASTAL CAROLINA-ARMY UNDER 43 (-3.4), 6. NORTH TEXAS-TULSA UNDER 66.5 (-3.0), 7. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL-ARKANSAS UNDER 51.5 (-2.5), 8. LOUISIANA MONROE-OLE MISS UNDER 62 (-2.3), 9 (tie). MARSHALL-SOUTH ALABAMA UNDER 51 (-2.1) and NEBRASKA-WISCONSIN UNDER 37 (-2.1)
Top College Football Head-to-Head Series Trends
These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:
BUFFALO at MIAMI OHIO
* FAVORITES are 12-2-1 ATS in last 15 games between Buffalo and Miami Ohio
System match: PLAY MIAMI OHIO ATS
NC STATE at VIRGINIA TECH
* VIRGINIA TECH is on a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS run vs. NC State
System match: PLAY VIRGINIA TECH ATS
PURDUE at NORTHWESTERN
* ROAD TEAMS are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of Purdue-Northwestern series
System match: PLAY PURDUE ATS
TEXAS at IOWA STATE
* The last eight games of the TEXAS-ISU rivalry went UNDER the total
System match: PLAY UNDER the total
EAST CAROLINA at NAVY
* NAVY is on a seven-game SU and ATS winning streak vs. East Carolina
System match: PLAY NAVY ATS
ILLINOIS at IOWA
* ROAD TEAMS are 8-1 ATS in the last nine of Illinois-Iowa Big Ten series
System match: PLAY ILLINOIS ATS
