VSiN Analytics College Football Report for Week 2

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VSiN Staff
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VSiN Analytics College Football Report for Week 2

The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 2. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

 

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College Football Stability Score plays for Week 2

These college football Stability Scores provide a quantitative way to determine each team’s level of stability compared with how they finished the prior season. It is one of the foremost strategies Makinen employs every year to find value early. The thought is that teams in more stable year-to-year situations are better bets early while those that have undergone a lot of change in the offseason should be faded.

Steve keeps a handy chart on the Stability Scores of each FBS team and publishes them weekly for Week 0-3. He has found that a Stability Mismatch score of 8 is the minimum on which he will consider a play for this thought process. Last week went 9-6 ATS (60%). Here are this week’s qualifying plays.

FRIDAY

ILLINOIS at KANSAS (-2)

Stability Advantage: KANSAS by 9

SATURDAY

CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH (-7.5)

Stability Advantage: PITTSBURGH by 11

PURDUE at VIRGINIA TECH (+1)

Stability Advantage: VIRGINIA TECH by 15

OKLAHOMA STATE (-3) at ARIZONA STATE

Stability Advantage: OKLAHOMA STATE by 8

TULSA at WASHINGTON (-35.5)

Stability Advantage: WASHINGTON by 16

UNLV at MICHIGAN (-36)

Stability Advantage: MICHIGAN by 10

IOWA (-4) at IOWA STATE

Stability Advantage: IOWA by 8

TEXAS STATE at TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO (-11.5)

Stability Advantage: TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO by 12

KENT STATE at ARKANSAS (-38.5)

Stability Advantage: ARKANSAS by 10

EASTERN MICHIGAN at MINNESOTA (-19.5)

Stability Advantage: MINNESOTA by 8

ARIZONA (+9) at MISSISSIPPI STATE

Stability Advantage: ARIZONA by 10

APPALACHIAN STATE at NORTH CAROLINA (-15.5)

Stability Advantage: NORTH CAROLINA by 9

NEW MEXICO STATE (+13) at LIBERTY

Stability Advantage: NEW MEXICO STATE by 9

OHIO (+5) at FLORIDA ATLANTIC

Stability Advantage: OHIO by 13 (still at 9 if QB Rourke doesn’t play)

UAB at GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-5.5)

Stability Advantage: GEORGIA SOUTHERN by 9

LOUISIANA (-7.5) at OLD DOMINION

Stability Advantage: LOUISIANA by 8

NORTH TEXAS at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (+14)

Stability Advantage: FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL by 13

JACKSONVILLE STATE (+13) at COASTAL CAROLINA

Stability Advantage: JACKSONVILLE STATE by 10

TEXAS (+7.5) at ALABAMA

Stability Advantage: TEXAS by 11

CHARLOTTE at MARYLAND (-25.5)

Stability Advantage: MARYLAND by 11

STANFORD at USC (-29)

Stability Advantage: USC by 18

Strategies using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits data

VSiN.com’s BETTING SPLITS pages are among our most touted features and a fantastic resource for bettors. We have built these pages using the data DraftKings provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines and totals. In an article published in the 2023 College Football Betting Guide, Makinen outlined 13 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the ’22 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games (records are shown heading into the 2023 season) as of Tuesday. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

DK Betting Splits system #1: When 80% or more of the HANDLE was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 40-47 ATS (46%). In other words, if you saw the big GREEN lights on the VSiN betting splits HANDLE page 80% or higher, it was best to fade it.

System matches (FADE ALL): UTAH, COLORADO, BALL STATE, KANSAS STATE, NOTE DAME, SYRACUSE, OLE MISS, TULSA, OKLAHOMA, GEORGIA SOUTHERN, OLD DOMINION, CINCINNATI, MIZZOU, HOUSTON, OREGON, UCONN, MINNESOTA, MISSISSIPPI STATE, UCLA, AIR FORCE, FLORIDA STATE, OKLAHOMA STATE

DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of BETS were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 66-76 ATS (46.5%). Again, if you see the big GREEN lights on the VSiN betting splits # of BETS page 75% or higher, it was best to fade it.

System matches (FADE ALL): UTAH, COLORADO, BALL STATE, KANSAS STATE, NOTRE DAME, TEXAS A&M, MICHIGAN, UNC, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, OKLAHOMA, LIBERTY, UCF, HOUSTON, OREGON, UCONN, MISSISSIPPI STATE, RUTGERS, WISCONSIN, FLORIDA STATE, OKLAHOMA STATE, AUBURN, USC

DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the HANDLE was on ROAD FAVORITES for an ATS wager, this majority group was just 58-85 ATS (40.6%). More recreational bettors love road favorites because they are usually the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer.

System matches (FADE ALL): UTAH, NOTRE DAME, JAMES MADISON, TEXAS A&M, UTEP, OLE MISS, MEMPHIS, UCF, HOUSTON, OREGON, UCLA, AIR FORCE, OKLAHOMA STATE, AUBURN

DK Betting Splits system #4: Similar to #3 above, when the majority NUMBER of BETS was on ROAD FAVORITES for an ATS wager, this majority group was just 59-75 ATS (44.0%). Bet volume usually covers more public action, and again, recreational bettors love road favorites but don’t typically fare well long term.

System matches (FADE ALL): UTAH, NOTRE DAME, IOWA, TEXAS A&M, UTEP, OLE MISS, MIAMI (OHIO), MARSHALL, LOUISIANA, NORTH TEXAS, MEMPHIS, UCF, HOUSTON, OREGON, UCLA, WISCONSIN, AIR FORCE, OKLAHOMA STATE, AUBURN

DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority of the HANDLE was on ROAD UNDERDOGS for an ATS wager, this majority group was 100-82 ATS (54.9%). Now, 54.9% is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates and goes to show that being on the “smart” side of majority handle can pay off. Remember, higher handle feels less “public” than higher bet counts.

System matches (PLAY ALL): VANDERBILT, BALL STATE, KENT STATE, TULSA, NEW MEXICO STATE, CINCINNATI, TEXAS, UCONN, CHARLOTTE

DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority NUMBER of BETS was on ROAD UNDERDOGS for an ATS wager, this majority group was 98-75 ATS (56.6%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #5 actually and suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.

System matches (PLAY ALL): BALL STATE, TEXAS STATE, CINCINNATI, UCONN, CHARLOTTE

DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of NUMBER of BETS backed a team in an ATS wager in NON-SATURDAY games, their 2022 season record was 72-46 (61%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.

System matches: ILLINOIS-KANSAS split 50-50 on handle currently (check again closer to Friday)

DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority of the HANDLE backed a team in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager but the line moved towards the OPPOSITE team, this majority group was just 38-49 ATS (43.7%). This can be a tricky one to avoid, as it can be referred to as a trap in booking circles. The theory is that the more money a team gets on it, the more likely the line moves toward that team. This is the opposite scenario, and usually the public loses.

System matches (FADE ALL): NOTRE DAME, TEXAS A&M, MICHIGAN, EAST CAROLINA, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, OREGON, MISSISSIPPI STATE, WASHINGTON STATE, FLORIDA STATE, USC

DK Betting Splits system #10: The average college football total last year was 54.5. In games in which the totals reached 57 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority HANDLE bettors favored the UNDER, they were relatively sharp, going 35-21 (62.5%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 56 of 776 games.

System matches (PLAY UNDER): VANDERBILT-WAKE FOREST (o/u at 57.5), NEBRASKA-COLORADO (o/u at 59.5), UNLV-MICHIGAN (o/u at 57.5), APPALACHIAN STATE-NORTH CAROLINA (o/u at 58.5)

DK Betting Splits system #11: On games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority HANDLE bettors siding with the UNDER were 15-8 (65.2%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting UNDER’s, this didn’t produce a lot of plays but the super handle majority were sharp.

System matches (PLAY UNDER): JAMES MADISON-VIRGINIA (o/u at 40.5), MARSHALL-EAST CAROLINA (o/u at 44.5), TEMPLE-RUTGERS (o/u at 44)

DK Betting Splits system #12: On games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of BETS bettors bucking the low total and siding with the OVER were 22-13 (62.9%). Again, not a ton of plays here, but the more public option of number of BETS was pretty good when going against the grain.

System matches (PLAY OVER): JAMES MADISON-VIRGINIA (o/u at 40.5), MIAMI (OHIO)-UMASS (o/u at 44.5), AIR FORCE-SAM HOUSTON STATE (o/u at 37.5)

DK Betting Splits system #13: On games where the HANDLE has a majority on totals and the # of BETS has the opposite majority, the majority HANDLE plays went 112-93 (54.6%). This could be described as more sharp action being displayed by the majority handle.

(PLAY OVER when there are opposite majorities and HANDLE favors OVER)

(PLAY UNDER when there are opposite majorities and HANDLE favors UNDER)

College football Game 2 reactionary systems

These systems take into account traits about a team’s season opener and how they affect their second game.

CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #1 – FCS letdown: Teams that faced an FBS foe in Game 1 and are favored by 30 points or more versus an FCS opponent for Game 2 have gone just 73-93-5 ATS (44%) since 2012.

System match (FADE ALL): LOUISVILLE, INDIANA (if favored by 30+), ARMY, BYU (if favored by 30+), CLEMSON, DUKE, FLORIDA, GEORGIA TECH, KENTUCKY, LSU, NAVY, OHIO STATE, PENN STATE, TCU, TENNESSEE, TOLEDO, WEST VIRGINIA, WYOMING (if favored by 30+), WESTERN KENTUCKY

CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #2 – FCS game 2 foes not an easy rebound: Teams coming off an FBS loss in Game 1 and favored big (>=24 points) over an FCS team in Game 2 have gone just 36-59-1 ATS (37.9%) since 2012.

System match (FADE ALL): INDIANA, ARMY, CLEMSON, FLORIDA, GEORGIA TECH, LSU, NAVY, TCU, TOLEDO, WEST VIRGINIA, UTAH STATE (if favored by 24+)

CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #4 – Home cooking not enough to revive struggling offense: Teams that scored 10 points or fewer in a season-opening loss of 17 points or more have responded with just a 34-52-2 ATS (39.5%) record when playing at home in Game 2 over the last decade.

System match: FADE NAVY (vs. Wagner), FADE CENTRAL MICHIGAN (vs. New Hampshire), FADE MARSHALL (+3 vs. Marshall), FADE ARKANSAS STATE (+21.5 vs. Memphis), FADE INDIANA (vs. Indiana State), FADE RICE (+9.5 vs. Houston), FADE NEW MEXICO (vs. Tennessee Tech), FADE NORTHWESTERN (+1.5 vs. UTEP), FADE CLEMSON (vs. Charleston Southern)

CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #5 — Oddsmakers don’t have a true grasp on some teams early: Teams whose lines swing huge amounts from Game 1 to Game 2 have performed predictably, with 52 points being the benchmark. Those teams whose lines are 52 points or more worse in Game 2 than their opener are on a 34-16 ATS (68%) run. Teams whose lines are >=52 points better than the opener have gone just 16-23-2 ATS (41%) over the last 11 seasons.

Lines 52 points or worse (PLAY ALL): TULSA (+34.5 at Washington), UNLV (+36 at Michigan), SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI (+30.5 at Florida State)

Lines 52 points or better (FADE ALL): INDIANA (if -21.5 or more vs. Indiana State), GEORGIA TECH (only if -44.5 or more vs. South Carolina State), NAVY (if -31.5 or more vs. Wagner), WYOMING (if -38.5 vs. Portland State), BUFFALO (if -23.5 or more vs. Fordham), NEW MEXICO (if -14 or more vs. Tennessee Tech)

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. This material was taken from an article published in late August. REVENGE is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

Best and Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since ’16)

Best

* WISCONSIN is 9-3 SU and ATS (75%) in revenge mode since ’16

System match: PLAY WISCONSIN (-6 at Washington State)

Worst

* APPALACHIAN STATE is 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS (17%) in revenge mode since ’16

System match: FADE APPALACHIAN STATE (+18 at UNC)

College football revenge system

Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out

·       Teams looking to avenge outright losses in which they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 83-106 ATS (43.9%) since 2016.

System matches: FADE WISCONSIN (-6 at Washington State), FADE LIBERTY (-10 vs. New Mexico State)

College Football Systems based on AP poll rankings

The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams

·        In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, HOME TEAMS are 143-71 SU and 122-86-6 ATS (58.7%).

System match: PLAY TULANE (+7.5 vs. Ole Miss)

·        Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 83-15 SU and 60-35-3 ATS (63.2%).

·        Adding another point-spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 42-12 SU and 38-14-2 ATS (73.1%) since ’17.

Systems match: PLAY ALABAMA (-7.5 vs. Texas)

Extreme stat next-game CFB betting systems

Huge week-to-week point spread movement

·       CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up game since 2012, going 81-54 ATS (60%).

System matches (PLAY ALL): TULSA (+34.5 at Washington), UNLV (+36 at Michigan), SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI (+30.5 at Florida State)

Upset losses as huge favorites snowball

·       Teams that lose in a game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 36-60 SU and 33-60-3 ATS (35.5%) in the follow-up contest since 2012.

System matches: FADE BAYLOR (+7.5 vs. Utah), FADE TCU (vs. Nicholls State)

Ride teams off uber-dominant performances

·       Over the course of the last decade, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried the momentum well in the next outing, going 125-86 ATS (59.2%).

System matches (PLAY ALL): OREGON (-6.5 at Texas Tech), OLE MISS (-7.5 at Tulane), OKLAHOMA (-15.5 vs. SMU), SYRACUSE (-23.5 vs. Western Michigan)

This week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN WEEKLY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. JACKSONVILLE STATE +13.5 (+7.4), 2. NEBRASKA +3 (+5.5), 3. UAB +6.5 (+5.2), 4. EAST CAROLINA +3 (+4.9), 5 (tie). PURDUE +2.5 (+4.0) and CALIFORNIA +6.5 (+4.0), 7. NORTHWESTERN +1.5 (+3.7), 8. VIRGINIA +7 (+3.6), 9. SAM HOUSTON STATE +14.5 (+3.0), 10. CINCINNATI +7 (+2.1)

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. MISSISSIPPI STATE -10.5 (+5.9), 2. USC -29.5 (+4.8), 3. OKLAHOMA -16 (+4.4), 4 (tie). MICHIGAN -36 (+4.0) and TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO -13 (+4.0), 6. UCF -3.5 (+3.5), 7. FLORIDA ATLANTIC -4.5 (+3.0), 8. LOUISIANA -6.5 (+2.9), 9. MIAMI (OHIO) -7 (+2.8), 10. MARYLAND -25 (+2.4)

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. SAM HOUSTON STATE +14.5 (+10.2), 2. CALIFORNIA +6.5 (+9.0), 3. NORTHWESTERN +1.5 (+5.4), 4. JACKSONVILLE STATE +13.5 (+5.3), 5. WESTERN MICHIGAN +23.5 (+4.0), 6. TEXAS STATE +13 (+3.9), 7. CINCINNATI +7 (+3.5), 8 (tie). ARKANSAS STATE +21.5 (+3.3) and EAST CAROLINA +3 (+3.3), 10. MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +20.5 (+2.3)

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. MINNESOTA -20.5 (+5.5), 2. UCF -3.5 (+5.0), 3. USC -29.5 (+4.9), 4. MARYLAND -25 (-4.0), 5. MICHIGAN -36 (+2.9), 6. UTAH -7.5 (+2.1), 7. OREGON -6.5 (+2.0), 8. VIRGINIA TECH -2.5 (+1.7), 9. FLORIDA ATLANTIC -4.5 (+1.6), 10. RUTGERS -9.5 (+1.5)

This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. ILLINOIS-KANSAS OVER 56.5 (+4.7), 2. AIR FORCE-SAM HOUSTON STATE OVER 37.5 (+4.4), 3. TEXAS-ALABAMA OVER 54.5 (+3.5), 4. APPALCHIAN STATE-NORTH CAROLINA OVER 58.5 (+3.1), 5. UTEP-NORTHWESTERN OVER 38.5 (+3.0), 6 (tie). PURDUE-VIRGINIA TECH OVER 49.5 (+2.9) and MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE-MISSOURI OVER 47.5 (+2.9), 8. UCONN-GEORGIA STATE OVER 54.5 (+2.8), 9. NEW MEXICO STATE-LIBERTY OVER 54 (+2.5), 10. MIAMI (OHIO)-UMASS OVER 44.5 (+2.3)

This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. TULSA-WASHINGTON UNDER 64.5 (-8.2), 2. TEXAS STATE-UTSA UNDER 66.5 (-7.7), 3. OHIO-FLORIDA ATLANTIC UNDER 58.5 (-4.6), 4. NOTRE DAME-NC STATE UNDER 51 (-4.3), 5. OLE MISS-TULANE UNDER 65 (-4.2), 6. TROY-KANSAS STATE UNDER 50 (-3.1), 7. AUBURN-CALIFORNIA UNDER 54.5 (-2.7), 8. UNLV-MICHIGAN UNDER 57.5 (-2.1), 9. SOUTHERN MISS-FLORIDA STATE UNDER 53 (-2.0), 10. BALL STATE-GEORGIA UNDER 52.5 (-1.9)

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. NORTHWESTERN +1.5 (+7.0), 2. UAB +6.5 (+6.9), 3. EAST CAROLINA +3 (+6.5), 4. CALIFORNIA +6.5 (+5.7), 5. MIAMI (FLA.) +4.5 (+4.7), 6. VIRGINIA +7 (+4.0), 7. SAM HOUSTON STATE +14.5 (+3.6), 8. JACKSONVILLE STATE +13.5 (+3.4), 9. CINCINNATI +7 (+2.6), 10. ARKANSAS STATE +21.5 (+2.4)

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. SYRACUSE -23.5 (+7.5), 2. MIAMI (OHIO) -7 (+7.2), 3. USC -29.5 (+6.6), 4. MISSISSIPPI STATE -10.5 (+6.5), 5. UCF -3.5 (+5.9), 6. OREGON -6.5 (+4.8), 7. MICHIGAN -36 (+4.7), 8. LIBERTY -10 (+4.6), 9. UCLA -13.5 (+4.0), 10. GEORGIA STATE -3 (+3.1)

This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. JAMES MADISON-VIRGINIA OVER 40.5 (+8.0), 2. TEXAS-ALABAMA OVER 54.5 (+7.3), 3. ILLINOIS-KANSAS OVER 56.5 (+6.6), 4. NOTRE DAME-NC STATE OVER 51 (+5.5), 5. MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE-MISSOURI OVER 47.5 (+4.6), 6. TROY-KANSAS STATE OVER 50 (+4.4), 7. NEW MEXICO STATE-LIBERTY OVER 54 (+4.2), 8. PURDUE-VIRGINIA TECH OVER 49.5 (+4.1), 9. NORTH TEXAS-FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL OVER 53.5 (+3.9), 10. UCF-BOISE STATE OVER 57.5 (+3.6)

This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. UNLV-MICHIGAN UNDER 57.5 (-8.2), 2. TULSA-WASHINGTON UNDER 64.5 (-6.6), 3. OHIO-FLORIDA ATLANTIC UNDER 58.5 (-6.1), 4. TEXAS STATE-UTSA UNDER 66.5 (-5.2), 5. APPALCHIAN STATE-NORTH CAROLINA UNDER 58.5 (-3.4), 6. UTAH-BAYLOR UNDER 47.5 (-3.2), 7. NEBRASKA-COLORADO UNDER 59.5 (-2.2), 8. UAB-GEORGIA SOUTHERN UNDER 59.5 (-2.0), 9. WISCONSIN-WASHINGTON STATE UNDER 58.5 (-1.3), 10. MEMPHIS-ARKANSAS STATE UNDER 58.5 (-1.2)

Top College Football Team Situational Trends

These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

* AIR FORCE is 28-13 (68.3%) ATS in Non-Conference games since ’14

System match: PLAY AIR FORCE (-15 at Sam Houston State)

* AKRON is 11-25 (30.6%) ATS at Home since ’16

System match: FADE AKRON (vs. Morgan State)

* ARIZONA is 12-24 (33.3%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since ’16

System match: FADE ARIZONA (+10 at Mississippi State)

* ARIZONA STATE is 18-8 (69.2%) ATS as Underdog since ’18

System match: PLAY ARIZONA STATE (+3.5 vs. Oklahoma State)

* ARKANSAS is 0-8 (0.0%) ATS coming off SU Win since ’20

System match: FADE ARKANSAS (-38 vs. Kent State)

* BOWLING GREEN is 1-12 (7.7%) ATS in Non-Conference games since ’19

System match: FADE BOWLING GREEN (vs. Eastern Illinois)

* BUFFALO is 17-4 (81.0%) ATS at Home since ’19

System match: PLAY BUFFALO (vs. Fordham)

* CALIFORNIA is 21-9 (70.0%) ATS as Underdog since ’18

System match: PLAY CALIFORNIA (+6.5 vs.  Auburn)

* DUKE is 28-10 (73.7%) ATS in Non-Conference games since ’14

System match: PLAY DUKE (vs. Lafayette)

* E MICHIGAN is 32-13 (71.1%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since ’16

System match: PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN (+20 at Minnesota)

* FRESNO STATE is 21-8 (72.4%) UNDER the total since ’21 and is 15-4 (78.9%) ATS coming off SU Win since ’21

System match: PLAY UNDER, PLAY FRESNO STATE (vs. Eastern Washington)

* HAWAII is 8-23 (25.8%) ATS as Favorite since ’15

System match: FADE HAWAII (vs. Albany)

* IOWA STATE is 12-4 (75.0%) ATS as Underdog since ’21

System match: PLAY IOWA STATE (+4 vs. Iowa)

* JAMES MADISON is 12-4 (75%) ATS as Favorite since ’20

System match: PLAY JAMES MADISON (-7 at Virginia)

* KANSAS is 0-8 (0.0%) ATS as Favorite since ’18

System match: FADE KANSAS (-3.5 vs. Illinois (on FRIDAY))

* LOUISVILLE is 1-8 (11.1%) ATS in Non-Conference games since ’21

System match: FADE LOUISVILLE (vs. Murray State (on THURSDAY))

* MARYLAND is 13-5 (72.2%) ATS in Non-Conference games since ’17

System match: PLAY MARYLAND (-24.5 vs. Charlotte)

* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 20-7 (74.1%) UNDER the total since ’21 and is 12-3 (80%) ATS at Home since ’21

System match: PLAY UNDER in ARIZONA STATE-MISSISSIPPI STATE (o/u at 58), PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE (-10 vs. Arizona)

* NEW MEXICO is 2-14 (12.5%) ATS as Favorite since ’18

System match: FADE NEW MEXICO (vs. Tennessee Tech)

* OLD DOMINION is 4-14 (22.2%) ATS at Home since ’19

System match: FADE OLD DOMINION (+6.5 vs. Louisiana)

* OREGON STATE is 21-7 (75.0%) ATS coming off SU Win since ’16

System match: PLAY OREGON STATE (vs. UC Davis)

* PENN STATE is 23-9 (71.9%) ATS coming off SU Win since ’19

System match: PLAY PENN STATE (vs. Delaware)

* PURDUE is 14-4 (77.8%) ATS as Underdog since ’20

System match: PLAY PURDUE (+3 at Virginia Tech)

* SAM HOUSTON STATE is 9-0 (100.0%) ATS as Underdog since ’17

System match: PLAY SAM HOUSTON STATE (+15 vs. Air Force)

* SAN DIEGO STATE is 34-14 (70.8%) UNDER the total since ’19

System match: PLAY UNDER in UCLA-SDSU (o/u at 49.5)

* TEXAS A&M is 16-3 (84.2%) ATS in Non-Conference games since ’18

System match: PLAY TEXAS A&M (-4 at Miami)

* TROY is 11-2 (84.6%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since ’21

System match: PLAY TROY (+16.5 at Kansas State)

* TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO is 1-10 (9.1%) ATS at Home since ’21

System match: FADE UTSA (-11.5 vs. Texas State)

* UCLA is 6-17 (26.1%) ATS in Non-Conference games since ’15

System match: FADE UCLA (-13.5 at San Diego State)

* UNLV is 16-5 (76.2%) ATS in Non-Conference games since ’17

System match: PLAY UNLV (+36 at Michigan)

* WESTERN KENTUCKY is 6-16 (27.3%) ATS as Favorite since ’19

System match: PLAY WESTERN KENTUCKY (vs. Houston Christian)

Top College Football Head-to-Head Series Trends

These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:

IOWA at IOWA STATE

* UNDER the total is 14-4 in Iowa-ISU rivalry since ’04

System match: PLAY UNDER 36.5

MEMPHIS at ARKANSAS STATE

* UNDERDOGS are 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 of Memphis-Arkansas State series

System match: PLAY ARKANSAS STATE +21.5

NORTH TEXAS at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

* FAVORITES have won last 7 SU and ATS in North Texas-Florida International series

System match: PLAY NORTH TEXAS -12.5

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