VSiN Analytics College Football Report for Week 4

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VSiN Analytics College Football Report for Week 4

The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 4. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

 

Strategies using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits data

VSiN.com’s BETTING SPLITS pages are among our most touted features and a fantastic resource for bettors. We have built these pages using the data DraftKings provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines and totals. In an article published in the 2023 College Football Betting Guide, Makinen outlined 13 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the ’22 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games (records are shown heading into the 2023 season). These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.

College Football Betting Splits | College Football Odds

DK Betting Splits system #1: When 80% or more of the HANDLE was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 40-47 ATS (46%). In other words, if you saw the big GREEN lights on the VSiN betting splits HANDLE page 80% or higher, it was best to fade it.

System matches (FADE ALL): COASTAL CAROLINA, NC STATE, OKLAHOMA, FLORIDA STATE, RUTGERS, TROY, KENTUCKY, WESTERN MICHIGAN, ILLINOIS, MARYLAND, TENNESSEE, ARIZONA, WYOMING, SOUTH CAROLINA, NORTH CAROLINA, UNLV, USC, WASHINGTON

DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of BETS were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 66-76 ATS (46.5%). Again, if you see the big GREEN lights on the VSiN betting splits # of BETS page 75% or higher, it was best to fade it.

System matches (FADE ALL): NC STATE, OKLAHOMA, FLORIDA STATE, KENTUCKY, DUKE, ILLINOIS, MARYLAND, COLORADO, MIAMI FLA., TENNESSEE, JACKSONVILLE STATE, LIBERTY, FLORIDA, ARIZONA, TEXAS STATE, TEXAS, LOUISIANA, MISSOURI, MINNESOTA, SOUTH CAROLINA, NORTH CAROLINA, JAMES MADISON, UNLV, USC, WASHINGTON, HAWAII

DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the HANDLE was on ROAD FAVORITES for an ATS wager, this majority group was just 58-85 ATS (40.6%). More recreational bettors love road favorites because they are usually the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer.

System matches (FADE ALL): WISCONSIN, NC STATE, BOISE STATE, OKLAHOMA, FLORIDA STATE, KENTUCKY, GEORGIA SOUTHERN, DUKE, MARYLAND, MIAMI FLA., TEXAS TECH, RICE, LIBERTY, ARIZONA, OREGON STATE, TEXAS, OHIO STATE, NORTH CAROLINA, JAMES MADISON, UNLV, USC

DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to No. 3 above, when the majority NUMBER of BETS was on ROAD FAVORITES for an ATS wager, this majority group was just 59-75 ATS (44.0%). Bet volume usually covers more public action, and again, recreational bettors love road favorites but don’t typically fare well long term.

System matches (FADE ALL): WISCONSIN, NC STATE, BOISE STATE, AIR FORCE, OKLAHOMA, FLORIDA STATE, KENTUCKY, GEORGIA SOUTHERN, OHIO, DUKE, MARYLAND, MIAMI FLA., TEXAS TECH, RICE, LIBERTY, SOUTHERN MISS, ARIZONA, OREGON STATE, TEXAS, MINNESOTA, OHIO STATE, NORTH CAROLINA, JAMES MADISON, UNLV, USC

DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority of the HANDLE was on ROAD UNDERDOGS for an ATS wager, this majority group was 100-82 ATS (54.9%). Now, 54.9% is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates and goes to show that being on the “smart” side of majority handle can pay off. Remember, higher handle feels less “public” than higher bet counts.

System matches (PLAY ALL): VIRGINIA TECH, RUTGERS, TULSA, WESTERN MICHIGAN, OLE MISS, BYU, BOSTON COLLEGE, COLORADO, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, GEORGIA TECH, SAM HOUSTON STATE, AKRON, UCF, KENT STATE

DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority NUMBER of BETS was on ROAD UNDERDOGS for an ATS wager, this majority group was 98-75 ATS (56.6%). This is even better than the handle numbers in No. 5 actually and suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.

System matches (PLAY ALL): VIRGINIA TECH, RUTGERS, WESTERN MICHIGAN, OLE MISS, BYU, BOSTON COLLEGE, COLORADO, OKLAHOMA STATE, COLORADO STATE, KENT STATE

DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of NUMBER of BETS backed a team in an ATS wager in NON-SATURDAY games, their 2022 season record was 72-46 (61%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.

System matches (PLAY ALL): COASTAL CAROLINA, WISCONSIN, NC STATE, BOISE STATE, AIR FORCE

DK Betting Splits system #8: When the majority of the HANDLE backed the team with more season wins in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager, this majority group was just 100-131 ATS (43.3%). More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is the eternal equalizer.

System matches (FADE ALL): WISCONSIN, NC STATE, OKLAHOMA, FLORIDA STATE, SYRACUSE, KENTUCKY, GEORGIA SOUTHERN, OLE MISS, DUKE, MARYLAND, MIAMI FLA., RICE, TENNESSEE, FLORIDA, HOUSTON, MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE, ARIZONA, TEXAS STATE, TEXAS, GEORGIA, LOUISIANA, UCF, NORTH CAROLINA, JAMES MADISON, UNLV, USC, WASHINGTON

DK Betting Splits system #9: When the majority of the HANDLE backed a team in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager, but the line moved toward the OPPOSITE team, this majority group was just 38-49 ATS (43.7%). This can be a tricky one to avoid, as it can be referred to as a trap in booking circles. The theory is that the more money a team gets on it, the more likely the line moves toward that team. This is the opposite scenario, and usually the public loses.

System matches (FADE ALL): COASTAL CAROLINA, WISCONSIN, BOISE STATE, SAN JOSE STATE, TEXAS A&M, TROY, TCU, COLORADO, BYU, MIAMI FLA., OLE MISS, DUKE, BOWLING GREEN, UTAH, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, LIBERTY, LSU, FLORIDA, ARKANSAS STATE, LOUISIANA, MISSOURI, KENT STATE

DK Betting Splits system #10: The average college football total last year was 54.5. In games in which the totals reached 57 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive when majority HANDLE bettors favored the UNDER, they were relatively sharp, going 35-21 (62.5%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 56 of 776 games.

System matches (PLAY UNDER): OKLAHOMA-CINCINNATI, WESTERN KENTUCKY-TROY, OLE MISS-ALABAMA, GEORGIA TECH-WAKE FOREST, CAL-WASHINGTON, NEW MEXICO STATE-HAWAII

DK Betting Splits system #11: On games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority HANDLE bettors siding with the UNDER were 15-8 (65.2%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting UNDERs, this didn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority were sharp.

System matches (PLAY UNDER): BOISE STATE-SAN DIEGO STATE, MINNESOTA-NORTHWESTERN, OKLAHOMA STATE-IOWA STATE

DK Betting Splits system #12: On games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of BETS bettors bucking the low total and siding with the OVER were 22-13 (62.9%). Again, not a ton of plays here, but the more public option of number of BETS was pretty good when going against the grain.

System matches (PLAY OVER): BOISE STATE-SAN DIEGO STATE, VIRGINIA TECH-MARSHALL, RUTGERS-MICHIGAN, SAM HOUSTON STATE-HOUSTON, APPALACHIAN STATE-WYOMING

DK Betting Splits system #13: On games where the HANDLE has a majority on totals and the # of BETS has the opposite majority, the majority HANDLE plays went 112-93 (54.6%). This could be described as more sharp action being displayed by the majority handle.

System matches:

PLAY UNDER when opposite majorities and HANDLE favors UNDER

PLAY OVER when opposite majorities and HANDLE favors OVER

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. This material was taken from an article published in late August. REVENGE is defined as having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

Best and Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since ’16)

Best

* UTAH is 14-7 SU and 15-6 ATS (71.4%) in revenge mode since ’16

System match: PLAY UTAH (-4.5 vs. UCLA)

* CENTRAL MICHIGAN is 14-8 SU and 14-7 ATS (67%) in revenge mode since ’16

System match: PLAY CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+15 at South Alabama)

* KENTUCKY is 14-13 SU and 18-9 ATS (67%) in revenge mode since ’16

System match: PLAY KENTUCKY (-14 at Vanderbilt)

* CALIFORNIA is 15-16 SU and 20-11 ATS (65%) in revenge mode since ’16

System match: PLAY CALIFORNIA (+21 at Washington)

Worst

* OLE MISS is 9-20 SU and 10-18 ATS (36%) in revenge mode since ’16

System match: FADE OLE MISS (+7 at Alabama)

College football revenge systems

1. Double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 44-32 ATS (57.9%) since 2016.

System matches: PLAY KENTUCKY

Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out

2. Teams looking to avenge outright losses in which they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 87-108 ATS (44.6%) since 2016.

System matches: FADE LOUISVILLE, FADE KENTUCKY, FADE COLORADO STATE 

Key stats of the team seeking revenge matter

3. Better defensive teams are more successful in exacting revenge than prolific offenses. Since the start of the 2016 season, teams allowing 24 PPG or less have gone 565-510 ATS (52.6%) as compared with those scoring 35 PPG or more, 354-383 ATS (48%).

System matches (good defensive teams allowing <=24 PPG): WEST VIRGINIA, LOUISVILLE, FLORIDA STATE, PITTSBURGH, RUTGERS, TOLEDO, IOWA STATE, NORTHWESTERN, UTAH, CALIFORNIA, WASHINGTON STATE, MICHIGAN STATE, KENTUCKY, SMU, OLE MISS, BAYLOR, ARKANSAS, TEXAS A&M, NOTRE DAME

Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes

4. Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been very successful, going 201-150 ATS (57.3%) since 2016.

System matches: PLAY TOLEDO, PLAY TEXAS STATE 

College Football Systems based on AP poll rankings

The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams

·        In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, HOME TEAMS are NOW 143-73 SU and 122-88-6 ATS (58.1%).

System matches (PLAY ALL): OREGON, UTAH, ALABAMA, WASHINGTON STATE, NOTRE DAME, PENN STATE

·        Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 83-16 SU and 60-36-3 ATS (62.5%).

System matches (PLAY ALL): OREGON, UTAH, ALABAMA, PENN STATE

·        Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 42-13 SU and 38-15-2 ATS (71.7%) since ’17.

System matches: PLAY UTAH (-4.5 vs. UCLA), PLAY ALABAMA (-7 vs. Ole Miss)

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #4

In college football games featuring TWO RANKED TEAMS with the home team being a double-digit favorite, UNDER the total boasts an impressive 32-12 (72.7%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season. When adding a qualifier of totals higher than 56 to that system, the UNDER record jumps to 19-6 (76%).

System matches: PLAY UNDER in Colorado-Oregon (o/u at 71.5), PLAY UNDER in Iowa-Penn State (o/u at 40.5)

Extreme stat next game CFB betting systems

Huge week-to-week point spread movement

5. CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up contest since 2012, going 87-58 ATS (60%).

System matches (PLAY BOTH): TEMPLE (+23.5 vs. Miami Fla.), BAYLOR (+15 vs. Texas)

Dismal offensive performances carry over

6. College football teams that gained 100 yards or fewer in a game have not bounced back well in the next, going just 22-32 ATS (40.7%) in their last 54 tries.

System match: FADE SAM HOUSTON STATE (+12.5 at Houston)

Not taking advantage enough of turnovers can be a red flag

7. CFB FBS teams that benefited from a +5 turnover differential or greater but failed to score 44+ points in that game have responded by going just 32-50 ATS (39%) in their next contest since ’12.

System matches: FADE WISCONSIN (-6 at Purdue), FADE FRESNO STATE (-27.5 vs. Kent State), FADE PENN STATE (-14.5 vs. Iowa)

Ride teams off of uber-dominant performances

8. Over the course of the last decade, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 132-87 ATS (60.3%).

System matches: PLAY SMU (+6.5 at TCU), PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA (-6.5 vs. Georgia State), PLAY OHIO STATE  (-3 at Notre Dame), PLAY UCLA (+4.5 at Utah), PLAY RICE (-2.5 at USF)

This week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN WEEKLY RATINGS page under the college football tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. MICHIGAN STATE  +7.5 (+6.4), 2. BYU +9 (+6.0), 3. BOWLING GREEN +12.5 (+5.2), 4. BALL STATE  +6.5 (+4.7), 5. ARIZONA STATE  +34 (+4.0), 6. NEVADA +17 (+3.6), 7. EASTERN MICHIGAN +6.5 (+3.1), 8. AUBURN +7.5 (+3.0), 9. NEW MEXICO +3.5 (+2.6), 10. TEMPLE +23.5 (+2.3)

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. FLORIDA -28 (+6.2), 2. WAKE FOREST -4 (+4.2), 3. OKLAHOMA -14.5 (+4.0), 4. SOUTH ALABAMA -15 (+3.8), 5. LA-LAFAYETTE -8.5 (+3.4), 6(tie). WISCONSIN -6 (+3.1) and TOLEDO -20 (+3.1), 8(tie). OHIO STATE  -3 (+2.7) and TEXAS -15 (+2.7), 10. INDIANA -16 (+2.4)

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. SAM HOUSTON STATE  +12.5 (+7.3), 2. NEVADA +17 (+7.2), 3. LOUISIANA TECH +19.5 (+6.6), 4. MICHIGAN STATE +7.5 (+5.6), 5. CALIFORNIA +21 (+4.0), 6. TEMPLE +23.5 (+3.8), 7. VIRGINIA +9.5 (+3.3), 8. NEW MEXICO +3.5 (+3.2), 9(tie). SAN JOSE STATE +3.5 (+3.0) and VANDERBILT +14 (+3.0)

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1 (tie). WAKE FOREST -4 (+5.8) and SYRACUSE -13.5 (+5.8), 3. LOUISVILLE -14 (+4.0), 4. LIBERTY -10 (+3.8), 5. MARSHALL -5 (+3.7), 6. JAMES MADISON -6.5 (+2.6), 7. PENN STATE -14.5 (+2.5), 8. OKLAHOMA -14.5 (+2.4), 9. UTAH -4.5 (+2.3), 10. OREGON -21 (+2.2)

This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. DUKE-UCONN OVER 45.5 (+6.4), 2. MISSISSIPPI STATE-SOUTH CAROLINA OVER 50 (+6.2), 3. CHARLOTTE-FLORIDA OVER 49.5 (+5.7), 4. SAM HOUSTON STATE-HOUSTON OVER 38 (+5.3), 5. OHIO-BOWLING GREEN OVER 46 (+5.1), 6. UNC-PITT OVER 50 (+4.5), 7. NEVADA-TEXAS STATE OVER 59.5 (+4.2), 8. OKLAHOMA STATE-IOWA STATE OVER 36.5 (+3.3), 9 (tie). FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL-ILLINOIS OVER 45.5 (+3.1) and MIAMI FLA-TEMPLE OVER 51 (+3.1)

This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. BUFFALO-LOUISIANA UNDER 58 (-4.0), 2. GEORGIA SOUTHERN-BALL STATE UNDER 59.5 (-3.8), 3. KENT STATE-FRESNO STATE UNDER 50.5 (-2.9), 4. JAMES MADISON-UTAH STATE UNDER 52 (-2.6), 5 (tie). FLORIDA STATE-CLEMSON UNDER 56.5 (-2.4) and WESTERN KENTUCKY-TROY UNDER 59 (-2.4), 7. CENTRAL MICHIGAN-SOUTH ALABAMA UNDER 50.5 (-2.3), 8 (tie). CAL-WASHINGTON UNDER 60.5 (-2.1) and AUBURN-TEXAS A&M UNDER 52.5 (-2.1), 10. USC-ARIZONA STATE UNDER 62 (-2.0)

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. MICHIGAN STATE +7.5 (+6.6), 2. NEVADA +17 (+5.5), 3. NEW MEXICO +3.5 (+5.3), 4. SAN JOSE STATE +3.5 (+5.2), 5. BYU +9 (+4.9), 6. BALL STATE +6.5 (+3.9), 7 (tie). LOUISIANA TECH +19.5 (+3.8) and UTAH STATE +6.5 (+3.8), 9. ARIZONA STATE +34 (+3.7), 10. EASTERN MICHIGAN +6.5 (+2.7)

This week’s Top 10 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. WAKE FOREST -4 (+5.6), 2. FLORIDA -28 (+5.5), 3. OREGON STATE -3 (+4.6), 4. OHIO STATE -3 (+4.5), 5. WISCONSIN -6 (+4.1), 6 (tie). SOUTH ALABAMA -15 (+3.2) and HOUSTON -12.5 (+3.2), 8. RICE -2.5 (+3.1), 9 (tie). TOLEDO -20 (+3.0) and ARIZONA -11.5 (+3.0)

This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. DUKE-UCONN OVER 45.5 (+10.5), 2 (tie). TEXAS TECH-WEST VIRGINIA OVER 55 (+6.8) and OLE MISS-ALABAMA OVER 57 (+6.8), 4. SAM HOUSTON STATE-HOUSTON OVER 38 (+6.6), 5. OHIO STATE-NOTRE DAME OVER 54.5 (+6.5), 6. IOWA-PENN STATE OVER 40.5 (+5.1), 7. OREGON STATE-WASHINGTON STATE OVER 56 (+4.9), 8 (tie). AKRON-INDIANA OVER 46.5 (+4.8) and GEORGIA SOUTHERN-BALL STATE OVER 59.5 (+4.8), 10. NORTH CAROLINA-PITT OVER 50 (+4.7)

This week’s Top 10 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings matches: 1. CAL-WASHINGTON UNDER 60.5 (-4.8), 2. BOSTON COLLEGE-LOUISVILLE UNDER 54.5 (-4.6), 3. NEW MEXICO-UMASS UNDER 49.5 (-4.4), 4. OKLAHOMA-CINCINNATI UNDER 60.5 (-4.0), 5. CENTRAL MICHIGAN-SOUTH ALABAMA UNDER 50.5 (-3.9), 6. EASTERN MICHIGAN-JACKSONVILLE STATE UNDER 52.5 (-3.6), 7. LIBERTY-FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNDER 52.5 (-3.3), 8. NEW MEXICO STATE-HAWAII UNDER 58.5 (-2.5), 9. KENT STATE-FRESNO STATE UNDER 50.5 (-2.1), 10. UAB-GEORGIA UNDER 54 (-2.0)

Top College Football Team Situational Trends

These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

* ARIZONA is 13-24 (35.1%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since ’16

System match: FADE ARIZONA (-11.5 at Stanford)

* ARIZONA STATE is 18-10 (64.3%) ATS as Underdog since ’18

System match: PLAY ARIZONA STATE (+35 vs. USC)

* BOSTON COLLEGE is 18-6 (75%) ATS in Conference games since ’20

System match: PLAY BOSTON COLLEGE (+14 at Louisville)

* BOWLING GREEN is 10-28 (26.3%) ATS as Underdog since ’19

System match: FADE BOWLING GREEN (+12.5 vs. Ohio)

* CALIFORNIA is 22-9 (71%) ATS as Underdog since ’18

System match: PLAY CALIFORNIA (+21 at Washington)

* DUKE is 29-11 (71.8%) ATS in Non-Conference games since ’14

System match: PLAY DUKE (-21.5 at UConn)

* E MICHIGAN is 33-13 (71.7%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since ’16

System match: PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN (+6.5 at Jacksonville State)

* FLORIDA STATE is 6-16 (27.2%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since ’19

* FLORIDA STATE is 3-13 (18.8%) ATS in Conference games since ’21

System match: FADE FLORIDA STATE (-2.5 at Clemson)

* FRESNO STATE is 22-9 (71%) UNDER the total since ’21

* FRESNO STATE is 16-5 (76.2%) ATS coming off SU Win since ’21

System match: PLAY UNDER in Kent State-Fresno State (o/u at 50.5), PLAY FRESNO STATE (-27.5 vs. Kent State)

* HAWAII is 9-23 (28.1%) ATS as Favorite since ’15

System match: FADE HAWAII (-3 vs. New Mexico State)

 * JAMES MADISON is 12-5 (70.6%) ATS as Favorite since ’20

System match: PLAY JAMES MADISON (-6.5 at Utah State)

* KANSAS is 1-9 (10%) ATS as Favorite since ’18

System match: FADE KANSAS (-9 vs. BYU)

* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 21-8 (72.4%) UNDER the total since ’21

System match: PLAY UNDER in MISSISSIPPI STATE-South Carolina (o/u at 50)

* NEBRASKA is 1-7 (12.5%) ATS at Home in last 8 games

System match: FADE NEBRASKA (-19.5 vs. LA Tech)

* OLD DOMINION is 6-14 (30%) ATS at Home since ’19

System match: FADE OLD DOMINION (vs. Texas A&M-Commerce)

* OLE MISS is 3-12 (20.0%) ATS in Conference games since ’21

System match: FADE OLE MISS (+7 at Alabama)

* OREGON STATE is 22-8 (73.3%) ATS coming off SU Win since ’16

System match: PLAY OREGON STATE (-3 at Washington State)

* PENN STATE is 25-9 (73.5%) ATS coming off SU Win since ’19

System match: PLAY PENN STATE (-14.5 vs. Iowa)

* PURDUE is 14-5 (73.7%) ATS as Underdog since ’20

System match: PLAY PURDUE (+6 vs. Wisconsin)

* S ALABAMA is 13-31 (29.5%) ATS coming off SU Win since ’14

System match: FADE SOUTH ALABAMA (-15 vs. Central Michigan)

* SAM HOUSTON STATE is 10-0 (100.0%) ATS as Underdog since ’17

System match: PLAY SAM HOUSTON STATE (+12.5 at Houston)

* SAN DIEGO STATE is 36-14 (72%) UNDER the total since ’19

System match: PLAY UNDER in Boise State-San Diego state (o/u at 45)

* TULANE is 37-14 (72.5%) ATS as Favorite since ’14

System match: PLAY TULANE (vs. Nicholls State)

* UNLV is 18-5 (78.3%) ATS in Non-Conference games since ’17

System match: PLAY UNLV (-2.5 at UTEP)

* UTEP is 4-14 (22.2%) ATS at Home since ’20

System match: FADE UTEP (+2.5 vs. UNLV)

Top College Football Head-to-Head Series Trends

These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:

WISCONSIN at PURDUE

* WISCONSIN has gone 9-0 SU and ATS in its last nine trips to Purdue

System match: PLAY WISCONSIN (-6 at Purdue)

MARYLAND at MICHIGAN STATE

* UNDER the total is 7-0-1 in last 8 games of Maryland-Michigan State series

System match: PLAY UNDER in Maryland-Michigan State (o/u at 52.5)

RUTGERS at MICHIGAN

* OVER the total is 8-1 in last nine of Rutgers-Michigan series

System match: PLAY OVER in Rutgers-Michigan (o/u at 44.5)

SMU at TCU

* ROAD TEAMS have won last 8 ATS in SMU-TCU rivalry

System match: PLAY SMU ATS (+6.5 at TCU)