College Football Picks
While there aren’t a whole lot of college football picks for Week 0, we’ve still managed to find some here at VSiN. Steve Makinen has a big mismatch with his Stability Scores system for a best bet and Tyler Shoemaker had some early-week college football picks as well.
As I mentioned in my Week 0 College Football Power Ratings article, there is just such an immense amount of turnover year in and year out that we’re all flying blind to some degree, but that doesn’t mean we can’t dive down the rabbit hole and look for the best bets based on our research.
Based on my research, power ratings, and other handicapping factors, there are a couple of games that I like in Week 0.
Here are my Week 0 College Football Picks:
Odds as of Wednesday, August 20, 8:30 p.m. PT
Fresno State vs. Kansas Prediction (-12.5, 50.5)
Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET
New beginnings are the story for both teams here. Fresno State has a new head coach in Matt Entz and Kansas has a new-look stadium to go along with a gigantic donation of money into their NIL collective. But, there are two noteworthy constants in this game and they are Lance Leipold and Jalon Daniels.
Leipold failed to follow up the 9-4 season that he captained in 2023, as the Jayhawks only went 5-7 last season, including a home loss to UNLV in the non-conference. The offense did seem to suffer without OC Andy Kotelnicki, who took the same job at Penn State. Daniels only posted a 14/12 TD/INT ratio and the team didn’t have a backup like Jason Bean to save the day.
Daniels should have a much more athletic group of wide receivers this season, including one-time top running back recruit Emmanuel Henderson from Alabama and a Ball State standout in Cam Pickett. Even Columbia transfer Bryson Canty looks like an upgrade over what the Jayhawks had at the position last season. While all-time leading rusher Devin Neal is gone, the offensive line should be able to open holes for others.
To me, the advantage at the wide receiver position becomes a larger one with Kansas’ perceived edge in the trenches. Two of their three highest-graded transfer recruits were linemen and they also had some experienced holdovers to build around. Fresno State, meanwhile, basically has a brand new offensive line for Entz and first-year OC Josh Davis.
I do really like the hire of DC Nick Benedetto by the Bulldogs, but returning production outside of CB Alzillion Hamilton is hard to find. Add in that QB EJ Warner is on his third school and Fresno State has a rebuilt WR corps, making the job potentially that much harder on the defense if they are on the field a lot.
My line here is Kansas -15, so there isn’t a whole lot of power ratings value, but I think the Jayhawks are just stronger at the line of scrimmage and can control this one with a high efficiency rate on offense.
Pick: Kansas -12.5
Stanford vs. Hawaii Prediction (-2.5, 50.5)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Our own Tim Murray and Matt Youmans will be in Honolulu with a good look at this one, as they’ll do a couple of special broadcasts for us on Friday evening and Saturday early afternoon. Check out VSiN Primetime (7-11 p.m. ET) on Friday and their rendition of VSiN Weekend Morning Line (1-4 p.m. ET) on Saturday from Hawaii.
As for the game itself, there is plenty of skepticism regarding Stanford this season, as one-year head coach Frank Reich is there to help stabilize the program under first-year GM Andrew Luck. If nothing else, Reich has always been known as a sharp play caller and should be able to help out transfer QB Ben Gulbranson, who is plenty experienced and probably a safe space for a guy like Reich. Sure, this team doesn’t have a ton to work with at the skill positions, but Ashton Daniels had a 10/12 TD/INT ratio and Gulbranson should take better care of the ball than that.
Most of the OL has starting experience and it’s a big group against something of an undersized defensive line for the Rainbow Warriors. Stanford also hit the portal hard for defensive help, particularly in the secondary, as they only had nine interceptions.
Hawaii’s Micah Alejado might be a player, but he is a young one with only one start to his name. Hawaii improved by leaps and bounds defensively last season, but has a new DC in Dennis Thurman and is also breaking in a new OC, though Timmy Chang has his fingerprints all over the offense.
My read is that Hawaii is overrated based on returning production. The reality is that Chang is 4-9 in games decided by seven or fewer points and I think a guy as savvy as Reich has a good chance to outfox him in a close game. My power ratings show Stanford favored, so I think getting points is a plus.
Pick: Stanford +2.5
For more best bets and Week 0 College Football content, click here.
