Week 0 College Football Power Ratings and Predictions

Week 0 College Football Power Ratings:

Well, folks. We’ve made it!

Meaningful college football games will be played this week, as we have seven games in total and four that feature FBS teams. Obviously Florida State vs. Georgia Tech will draw the most attention and the biggest billing, but every data point matters in terms of putting together college football power ratings and lines on the games.

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Before I share my lines for Week 0 and some additional thoughts, here are the links to my College Football Betting Guide articles on how I create my power ratings and how I came up with my home-field advantage values.

Using my power ratings and HFA, I come up with my own lines on every FBS vs. FBS game. Unlike some of my much smarter colleagues in the industry, I don’t power-rate the FCS teams, so I won’t have lines on those. However, I may find some of those lines really interesting and suggest taking a deeper look at them, much like I did in my Week 0 Odds Report article.

So, I’ll be doing this weekly power ratings article every Sunday night/Monday morning. Next week, I’ll outline my process from a week-to-week standpoint in deeper detail – how I adjust teams, how I evaluate results, and how I try to keep a level head with outlier performances.

This is basically meant to serve as an intro to what you can expect from me during the season. Starting with Week 1, and really starting with Week 2, I’ll list all of my power ratings adjustments by team and shed some light on my rationale behind the biggest ups and downs of the week. I’ll also share my lines for every game on the schedule.

Even though there are only six FBS teams in action, I’ll share my ratings for all of the teams.

Here are my Week 0 College Football Power Ratings:

Basically, take the difference between two teams and add home-field advantage to create a line on the game. So, if Kennesaw State (43) played at Temple (44), the difference between the two teams is one point and home-field advantage for Temple is worth two points, so I’d have Temple -3.

Week 0 Lines:

Week 0 Thoughts:

Florida State (-11) vs. Georgia Tech: My line is 13.5, which is where this one predominantly opened over the summer. Florida State has been rebuilt on both sides of the ball and won’t have OC Alex Atkins here, as he’s suspended for the first three games. Still, as much as I like Georgia Tech with returning QB Haynes King, the opener in Dublin is a tough sell for me.

SMU (-27) at Nevada: Even though my number is 26 and close to the market line, I lean slightly towards the Wolf Pack. I think it’s a big ask for SMU to be super efficient on both sides of the ball in a game played at 4,500 feet of elevation. Not that I think Nevada will be any good. This would be a “hey, it’s Week 0!” kind of play. I’m still not sure about it.

But, I will have stronger bets and opinions as the season goes along, so keep it locked in right here at VSiN!