Week 0 College Football Predictions
This week always feels like the scene in “Rocky” when Sylvester Stallone triumphantly climbs the concrete stairs all the way to the top and does his little celebratory dance with both hands raised high above his head. This week, of course, is Week 0, the kickoff to the college football season.
I appreciate all of the support and interactions throughout the year with college basketball, NFL and WNBA, but I got my start in this industry as a predominantly college football guy, so this season is always near and dear to my heart. Celebrations aside, there is actual football to be played this weekend, so let’s take a look at where the T Shoe Index indicates there’s some betting value on this small slate.
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.
Kansas State (-3) vs Iowa State, O/U 49.5
We’ve seen this line bounce around from 3 to 3.5 throughout the summer, as the #20 TSI team (Kansas State) will take on the #34 TSI team (Iowa State) in an Irish edition of “Farmageddon”, played in Dublin, Ireland. Despite the implied field goal difference here, TSI actually has Kansas State as a projected 7-point winner here, so laying the 3 without the hook feels like a great value bet to make. Kansas State is returning electric QB Avery Johnson on top of adding some offensive line reinforcements via the portal and a receiving threat from Boston College in Jerand Bradley.
Kansas State boasts the #14 TSI offense, taking on the #49 ranked defense of the Cyclones. On the other side of the ball, it’ll be the 29th-ranked Wildcats defense trying to contain the #26 offense of Iowa State. TSI does project a total of 57, but admittedly, I think totals are much harder to calibrate in the first couple weeks of the season, so play that Over at your own peril. I will lay the points with the Wildcats, though.
Bet: Kansas State -3 or better
Western Kentucky (-10) vs Sam Houston State, O/U 61
Sam Houston is no longer an FBS newbie, and by a lot of accounts are expected to be much improved this season. Western Kentucky is a household G5 program, thanks to their past offenses that electrified crowds and scoreboards for much of the 2010s and early 2020s.
This game really features a “bad on bad” matchup of the Bearkats’ offense (#132) vs the Hilltopper defense (#114). On the other side of the ball, the best unit on the field is the Sam Houston defense (#101 in TSI) taking on the Hilltopper offense, which is just #114. The interesting piece to me is how new Bearkats HC Phil Longo will be able to turn this dreadful offense around. If they’re even competent on that side of the ball, this could be a very competitive team in Conference USA this year.
These ratings net out to a projected 5-point Hilltopper win, with a total of just 47.5 – again, totals are based largely on last year’s tempo and efficiency numbers, so take with a grain of salt the first couple weeks.
Bet: Sam Houston State +10 or better
For more Week 0 college football predictions and analysis, visit the College Football Week 0 Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
