Week 1 College Football Best Bets:

Western Michigan (+24) at Wisconsin

Friday, 9:00 p.m ET (FS1)

The Broncos bring in two new coordinators – Walt Bell (previously at Indiana) on offense and Scott Power (previously at Louisiana Tech) on defense. The player roster has a bit more continuity as 17 starters (nine offense, eight defense) return, including starting QB Hayden Wolff. Last year’s MAC Freshman of the Year RB Jalen Buckley, who ran for over 1000 yards last season, also returns, along with three Power 4 transfers on defense. Most of the MAC was decimated by the transfer portal, but WMU actually had a net gain.

 

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Wisconsin is in its second year of the Luke Fickell era and in the second year of trying to change its offensive identity with offensive coordinator Phil Longo. The problem is that the Badgers are trying to run Longo’s version of the Air Raid with personnel that is old-school Wisconsin, which is more run-heavy.

Tyler Van Dyke transfers in from Miami to Madison, but has regressed in the last two seasons throwing 29 touchdowns with 17 interceptions after a 25-6 TD-INT ratio as a freshman.

The Wisconsin defense should be solid as usual, but they still lack the playmakers necessary to succeed in this offense. Wisconsin failed to beat any team by more than 21 last year, including a three-win Buffalo team out of the MAC.

An improved Western Michigan team should hang in here.

College Football Best Bet: Western Michigan +24

New Mexico at Arizona (-31)

Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Last week, the market faded New Mexico in a major way against FCS No. 4 Montana State as the line moved up to nearly +14 that the Lobos were receiving at home. New Mexico led 31-14 after three quarters and led wire-to-wire until :10 left in the game when Montana State finally put it away to win 35-31.

However, New Mexico was clearly outplayed as they benefited from two defensive touchdowns and were outgained 567-324.

This week, the Lobos travel to Arizona to face the Wildcats in the first game of the Brent Brennan era.

Brennan and new offensive coordinator Dino Babers, most recently the head coach at Syracuse, inherit eight starters. QB Noah Fifita, who threw for a 25-6 TD-INT ratio in just nine starts (finished the season winning seven in a row), returns, as does WR Tetairoa McMillan, who caught 90 passes for 1,396 yards and 10 touchdowns. Plus, the Wildcats add RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, a nearly 1200-yard rusher who gets to face his former school in his Arizona debut.

Croskey-Merritt is not the only Lobo added to the Wildcats program as Danny Gonzales, the New Mexico head coach for the last four seasons, joins Brennan’s staff as special teams coordinator/linebackers coach.

Bronco Mendenhall will get the New Mexico program on track, but they are short on talent and personnel and are likely to get run over in a major way here.

College Football Best Bet: Arizona -31

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