Week 1 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
Here are my Week 1 college football best bets:
Texas (+1) at Ohio State
A Hollywood screenwriter could not set up a scene any better than what will go down Saturday in Columbus, Ohio. Arch Manning, arguably the most hyped quarterback prospect in college football history, will lead No. 1 Texas against No. 3 Ohio State, the reigning national champion, in what is essentially a pick’em game.
It’s the last Saturday in August, not the final game of the season, so no championship will be won or lost. But for now, this is as good as it gets. Sportsbooks from coast to coast will host standing-room-only crowds and massive amounts of money will be wagered on a heavyweight showdown that captures the imagination. Hopefully, it lives up to the hype, yet that’s asking a lot.
Manning, who made two starts and attempted only 90 passes last season, is projected to be the NFL’s No. 1 overall pick when he decides to enter the draft in either 2026 or 2027. In his debut as the Longhorns’ full-time starter, Manning’s every move will be under a microscope, but a phenom from a royal family seems suited to handle the pressure.
The Buckeyes’ quarterback, freshman Julian Sayin, is another five-star recruit who will be making his first career start. Sayin will be able to lean on Jeremiah Smith, regarded as the nation’s top wide receiver, so he’s got that going for him.
Much has changed for both teams since early January, when Ohio State defeated Texas 28-14 in a playoff semifinal in Arlington, Texas. The Buckeyes’ changes are more concerning because they lost offensive coordinator Chip Kelly to the NFL and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles left for Penn State. The downgrade in coordinators is significant, plus fifth-year senior quarterback Will Howard was one of 14 players picked in the NFL Draft. The Longhorns must replace several stars on both sides of the ball, including all four defensive line starters.
The biggest upgrade on either side should be Manning, who replaces seventh-round pick Quinn Ewers. I never was a fan of Ewers — and neither were the pro scouts who let him fall in the draft — yet I’m buying stock in Manning being the real deal.
The betting public’s lopsided support of the Longhorns is not ideal. After Ohio State opened as a 3-point favorite this summer, the consensus line is Buckeyes -1. Circa Sports took a $550,000 bet Thursday on Texas +1 and moved the line to Longhorns -1 before settling at pick’em. The bookmakers will need the Buckeyes, so I’m not thrilled about being on the other side. It’s also worth noting the total has dipped from 50.5 to 47, and the move to the Under makes sense.
I made a play two months ago on Manning at 8-1 odds to win the Heisman Trophy, in addition to bets on the Longhorns at +2.5 and +120. While all of those plays have become too popular, I’m sticking with that side and expecting Manning to win the popularity contest.
College Football Best Bet: Texas +1
UNLV (-9.5) at Sam Houston State
“Friday Night Lights” is the best book I’ve read. H.G. Bissinger spent a season following the 1988 Permian High School football team in Odessa, Texas, and the characters within the story were incredible. It might not be a stretch to claim those Permian Panthers could cause this UNLV defense some problems.
Dan Mullen’s coaching debut with the Rebels last week was an inauspicious one. As a 30-point favorite, UNLV barely survived in a 38-31 comeback victory over Idaho State, which rolled up 555 total yards. Sam Houston lost its opener at Western Kentucky, but its run defense was solid and dual-threat quarterback Hunter Watson and running back Alton McCaskill were impressive. This line opened at 13.5 and dropped for obvious reasons. I took 10.5 with the Bearkats, who could pull the upset under the Friday night lights in Houston.
College Football Best Bet: Sam Houston +9.5
LSU at Clemson (-4)
It’s risky to bet on Brian Kelly, who’s 0-3 in season openers as LSU coach. However, Kelly appears to have the slightly better team in this matchup of Tigers. Fifth-year quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is a Heisman candidate, and LSU’s defense, which ranked 59th in scoring (24.3 ppg) last season, will be improved with help from the nation’s top-ranked transfer class.
Clemson’s defense is legit, and so is senior quarterback Cade Klubnik, who had 36 touchdown passes with six interceptions a year ago. Clemson went 10-4, but that record was less impressive when considering the lack of marquee wins, blowout losses to Georgia and Texas and home losses to Louisville and South Carolina. I prefer to take the points in a duel that should go to the wire. Kelly needs a breakthrough win and will be motivated to tighten up his team’s preparation after sloppy performances in previous openers.
College Football Best Bet: LSU +4
Utah (-5.5) at UCLA
A loaded Saturday schedule will conclude at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, where the sun will be setting over the San Gabriel Mountains for this 8 p.m. PT kickoff. Utah is a popular pick to win the Big 12, and Kyle Whittingham is one of my favorite bet-on coaches, but I rarely play road favorites early in the season. I also have questions about Utes quarterback Devon Dampier, who’s a dynamic runner yet must show he can beat better defenses through the air. The New Mexico transfer completed 58% of his passes last season with 12 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
The Bruins showed improvement late last season, winning four of their final six games, and will get a boost from Tennessee transfer quarterback Nico Iamaleava.
College Football Best Bet: UCLA +5.5
Notre Dame (-3) at Miami
The Fighting Irish feature a dominant defense, elite offensive line and a star running back in Jeremiyah Love. Notre Dame’s only real mystery is redshirt freshman quarterback CJ Carr, who didn’t play great in camp and will likely be more of a game manager in his first start Sunday night. The Hurricanes are not an easy sell because I don’t like Carson Beck as a quarterback or Mario Cristobal as a coach. Miami did go 10-3 last season, with the three losses by a total of 10 points, and the Canes should be strong on the offensive and defensive lines.
College Football Best Bet: Miami +3
Last week: 2-0 against the spread
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