Week 1 College Football Odds, Power Ratings and Projections

Week 1 College Football

An eventful “week” of the college football season is in the books. I personally prefer the Week 0 moniker, but the mainstream sports sites have mostly just considered the five games we saw last week as an extension of Week 1. What I really liked about it was that it provided a good opportunity to ease into the season and get back into the rhythms of processes, a welcomed event because I spent most of Sunday working on the Refreshed NFL 2.0 Betting Guide that comes out on Tuesday.

As I mentioned last week, rating and ranking these teams with such an extreme amount of turnover is a challenge, but once we get some data points, the picture gets a tad clearer. Getting eyes on the teams is important, but there are a lot of resources we can use to see how things really played out because our eyes can lie to us. Statistics can, too. For example, Kansas State and Iowa State won’t be that sloppy or inefficient most of the season, but the opener in terrible weather in Ireland was messy…literally and figuratively.

Along with box score study, sites like Game On Paper, College Football Data, and BCF Toys are akin to the Ken Pomeroy, Bart Torvik, and Erik Haslam sites we rely on for college basketball data. So, I’m definitely working more of that into my team and box score analysis each week this season in hopes of getting better representations of the teams before making adjustments to my power ratings.

So, with that, a quick reminder of my three-step process for updating power ratings:

1. Compare my line to the closing line

We saw a decent amount of market movement, despite the limited number of games. But, we also saw a lot of see-sawing back and forth, especially with that Western Kentucky/Sam Houston total. We also saw some Stanford money hit the market before kickoff, which wound up losing because Frank Reich doesn’t understand game state or game management. But, my first step is to see where my number was relative to the market’s final number after all of the action concluded.

2. Check the box score

ESPN, theScore, CBS, FOX, whatever you use to look at results. Like I said above, I’m also incorporating more Game On Paper, College Football Data, and BCF Toys this season to get an even better picture of how the game played out. There are so many games going at the same time and it’s impossible to get eyes on all of them. I’ll trust the data over my eyes, especially since I won’t watch every game start to finish.

3. Seek out injury information

This is honestly the hardest part. Coaches are protective of their players and there’s obviously some gamesmanship in there. Injury reports and updates aren’t standardized like they are in the NFL. Some coaches give updates on Monday, some on Tuesday, some on Wednesday, some not at all.

Based on those things, I make my adjustments and produce my lines for the next week’s games.

Week 1 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Ohio State	91	3.5
2	Texas	91	3.5
3	Penn State	90	3.5
4	Georgia	89.5	3
5	Alabama	89.5	3.5
6	Clemson	87	2.5
7	Notre Dame	86.5	3
8	Oregon	86	3.5
9	LSU	85.5	3.5
10	Michigan	84	3
11	Texas A&M	83.5	2
12	Florida	82.5	2
13	Oklahoma	82	3
14	Tennessee	81.5	3.5
15	Mississippi	80.5	3
16	South Carolina	79.5	2.5
17	Arizona State	79.5	2
18	Indiana	79	2.5
19	Miami (Florida)	79	2
20	Louisville	79	3.5
21	Auburn	78.5	2
22	Kansas State	78.5	3.5
23	USC	77.5	3
24	SMU	77	3.5
25	Baylor	77	2
26	TCU	77	3
27	Texas Tech	76.5	3
28	Illinois	76.5	2
29	Iowa State	75	2
30	Missouri	75	3.5
31	Nebraska	75	2
32	Washington	74.5	3.5
33	Iowa	74	3
34	Utah	74	3
35	Georgia Tech	73.5	2
36	Arkansas	73	2
37	Kansas	72.5	2.5
38	Boise State	72	3.5
39	BYU	72	2
40	Minnesota	72	2
41	Wisconsin	72	2
42	Virginia Tech	71.5	2
43	Vanderbilt	71.5	1.5
44	Florida State	71	2
45	UCLA	69.5	2
46	Pittsburgh	69.5	2
47	Colorado	69	2
48	Cincinnati	69	1.5
49	Duke	69	3.5
50	Boston College	68.5	2
51	Houston	68.5	2
52	Tulane	68	2.5
53	Kentucky	68	2
54	Rutgers	68	2
55	UTSA	67.5	3.5
56	North Carolina State	67	2
57	North Carolina	67	2
58	Navy	67	2
59	Mississippi State	67	2
60	UCF	66	2
61	Syracuse	66	2.5
62	West Virginia	66	2
63	Michigan State	66	2
64	Virginia	65	2
65	Arizona	65	2
66	Memphis	64.5	2.5
67	California	64	2
68	James Madison	64	3
69	Maryland	63.5	2
70	Oklahoma State	63	2
71	South Florida	63	1.5
72	Northwestern	62.5	1.5
73	San Jose State	62	2.5
74	Louisiana-Lafayette	61	2
75	Oregon State	60.5	3.5
76	Army	60	2.5
77	Liberty	60	3
78	Toledo	60	3
79	Fresno State	60	2
80	UNLV	59.5	2.5
81	North Texas	59.5	2
82	Texas State	59	2
83	Wake Forest	59	2
84	Old Dominion	59	1.5
85	East Carolina	59	2
86	Ohio	59	3.5
87	Buffalo	59	2
88	Connecticut	58.5	2.5
89	Georgia Southern	58	3.5
90	South Alabama	58	2
91	Air Force	58	2
92	Western Kentucky	58	2.5
93	Stanford	57	1
94	Hawai’i	56.5	2
95	Washington State	56	3
96	Colorado State	56	2
97	Coastal Carolina	56	2
98	Appalachian State	55.5	2
99	Miami (Ohio)	55	2.5
100	Northern Illinois	55	1
101	Arkansas State	55	2
102	Wyoming	54.5	2
103	Troy	54	3
104	Bowling Green	54	2
105	Purdue	54	1
106	Louisiana Tech	52.5	2
107	San Diego State	52.5	2
108	Louisiana-Monroe	52	2
109	Marshall	52	3
110	Georgia State	52	1
111	Western Michigan	52	2
112	Nevada	51	1
113	Jacksonville State	51	3.5
114	Florida Atlantic	51	2
115	Southern Mississippi	51	2
116	Rice	50.5	3
117	Utah State	50.5	2
118	UAB	48.5	2.5
119	Temple	48.5	2
120	Central Michigan	48.5	2
121	Sam Houston State	48	1.5
122	New Mexico	48	2
123	Florida International	48	2
124	UTEP	48	2
125	Missouri State	47.5	2
126	Charlotte	47.5	1
127	Eastern Michigan	47.5	2
128	Delaware	47	3
129	Middle Tennessee	46.5	2
130	Akron	46	2
131	New Mexico State	45.5	2.5
132	Tulsa	44	1
133	Ball State	43.5	2.5
134	Massachusetts	42	1
135	Kennesaw State	42	1.5
136	Kent State	37.5	1

Here are my Week 1 power ratings adjustments:

Up: Western Kentucky +2, Hawaii +1, Kansas State +1

Down: Iowa State -1, Stanford -3, Sam Houston State -2, UNLV -2

No earth-shattering moves. I had Stanford favored (-2.5) over Hawaii and they lost outright. Probably should have won if Reich coached a better game, but that doesn’t take away from how awful Ben Gulbranson was.

For reference, my lines were Kansas State -1.5, Kansas -15, Western Kentucky -8.5, Stanford -2.5. Those games closed -3, -14, -10, and +2.5 compared to my numbers. So, as you can see, there are some adjustments to the market, but also some adjustments to how the game played out. For example, Kansas State lost, but they were clearly the better team in the box score.

Normally I’ll give more context to the biggest movers in this section, but there really weren’t that many this week.

As a reminder, I do not line FBS vs. FCS games. For the purposes of calculating win totals, I used Jeff Sagarin’s FCS ratings, but I do not line those games.

My Week 1 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
8/28	East Carolina	NC State	-10
	Boise State	South Florida	+7.5
	Jacksonville State	UCF	-17
	Wyoming	Akron	+6.5
	Ohio	Rutgers	-11
	Nebraska	Cincinnati (N – Kansas City)	+6
	Buffalo	Minnesota	-15
	Miami (OH)	Wisconsin	-19
8/29	Central Michigan	San Jose State	-16
	App State	Charlotte (BOFA Stadium)	+8
	Kennesaw State	Wake Forest	-19
	Auburn	Baylor	-0.5
	UNLV	Sam Houston State	+10
	Georgia Tech	Colorado	+2.5
	Western Michigan	Michigan State	-16
8/30	Ball State	Purdue	-11.5
	Nevada	Penn State	-42.5
	Old Dominion	Indiana	-22.5
	New Mexico	Michigan	-39
	Temple	UMass	+5.5
	Syracuse	Tennessee (N – Atlanta)	-15.5
	FAU	Maryland	-14.5
	Coastal Carolina	Virginia	-11
	Texas	Ohio State	-3.5
	Marshall	Georgia	-40.5
	Toledo	Kentucky	-10
	UTEP	Utah State	-4.5
	Colorado State	Washington	-22
	Hawaii	Arizona	-10.5
	Georgia Southern	Fresno State	-4
	Utah	UCLA	+2.5
	Northwestern	Tulane	-8
	Mississippi State	Southern Miss	+14
	Georgia State	Ole Miss	-31.5
	Eastern Michigan	Texas State	-13.5
	Alabama	Florida State	+16.5
	UTSA	Texas A&M	-18
	Rice	Louisiana	-12.5
	Missouri State	USC	-33
	LSU	Clemson	-4
	Cal	Oregon State	PK
8/31	Virginia Tech	South Carolina (N – Atlanta)	-8
	Notre Dame	Miami (FL)	+5.5
9/1	TCU	North Carolina	+8

Some pretty big discrepancies for me here in Week 1. Remember, there are a lot of fact-finding missions going on at this time of the year. Some teams are harder to rate than others, but if you’ve put in the research, you certainly want to follow through, even if it isn’t for a full bet size with so much early-season volatility and variance.

I’ve always respected the expression that every team plays their best game of the season and their worst game of the season at some point. And one of them might come in Week 1.

Early in the season, I like a bigger discrepancy between my line and the market line to play the game, since I know that my power ratings are far from peak efficiency and so is the betting market. Key numbers, while less important in college football, are still targets for me when deciding which games to play based off of my numbers.

Games to consider based on my lines vs. the betting market:

San Jose State -12 (-16) vs. Central Michigan: Based on CMU’s hire of former Army OL coach Matt Drinkall, I think we’re in for a bit of a scheme change there that could be tough to grasp early. That said, SJSU not having Nick Nash anymore is a little scary. But, the market is already moving my way for this Friday game.

Western Michigan +20.5 (+16) at Michigan State: Guess the Mitten State is popular for me. I really like WMU this season, bet their win total Over, and expected to be higher on them than the market. But, do I trust them against Sparty? Let’s see if I can squeeze a 21 or better here.

Temple -2.5 (-5.5) at UMass: I think KC Keeler provides some pretty quick legitimacy to Temple, even if they’ve been bad for a while. This is one of the few winnable games for them and they have flipped to a favorite.

Hawaii +16.5 at Arizona: I think we saw a pretty big reaction here to Micah Alejado’s injury more than anything, as he hobbled around on a bad ankle in the second half. If we get a positive injury report, I expect this line to come back a bit.

Fresno State PK (-4) vs. Georgia Southern: Georgia Southern is a team I knew I’d be lower on than the market. This is not a team that will push the Bulldogs around and I like that Matt Entz’s team has played a game, even if it was a bad one. Long, weird trip for the Eagles.

UCLA +6.5 (+2.5) vs. Utah: The market adores Utah. Lots of love for them to win the Big 12. I’m probably a little too low on the Utes. Guess I’ll find out right away.

Georgia State +38.5 (+31.5) vs. Ole Miss: Hmmm. Am I wrong on one team or both? This is one of those where I have a big discrepancy, but the Rebels can hang a million if they want to. I tend to stay away from these with dynamic offenses, unlike the Western Michigan vs. Michigan State game, where Sparty is nowhere near as explosive.

Notre Dame -2.5 (-5.5) at Miami: Mario Cristobal vs. Marcus Freeman, eh? I get the worries about CJ Carr, but I’m lower on Miami than most. Just not sure Carson Beck is a dude, especially coming off of the injury.

TCU -3.5 (-8) at North Carolina: The first Bill Belichick game. I have no idea how this is going to work in Chapel Hill, but I know I love Josh Hoover. Even if the furry thing off the field is a little random. TCU could be very live in the Big 12 along with Baylor and Texas Tech.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.