It goes without saying that we were all excited to see college football back, as sloppy as Week 0 was. We’re likely to see a lot of messy action here in Week 1, but it is definitely good to see the pigskin being thrown around the field following the long offseason. And, while the games weren’t aesthetically pleasing in Week 0, we got some late drama in two of them.
There are some mammoth games in Week 1, including Texas vs. Ohio State, LSU vs. Clemson, and Notre Dame vs. Miami, but with the expanded playoff there are some other games that may have some noteworthy implications moving forward, like Alabama vs. Florida State, Auburn vs. Baylor, and even Boise State vs. South Florida on Thursday night.
Just like last week, these Week 1 odds have been up for a very long time. We’ve seen plenty of line movements and will see plenty more as limits increase and bettors start to take some stronger positions. For now, let’s look at the notable games and movers.
Week 1 College Football Odds Report
Lines as of Sunday, August 24 at 7:30 p.m. PT
Boise State (-6, 63.5) vs. South Florida
Thursday, 5:30 p.m. ET
A sweltering 90 degrees with a heat index of 99 and a chance of rain awaits the boys from Boise, as the Broncos take the long trip to Tampa to face the Bulls. Different circumstances, I guess, but Boise State opened with Dillon Gabriel and UCF back in 2021, as that line went from -4 to as high as -6.5 with Boise covering the close in a 36-31 loss, but they were outscored 22-7 in the second half and 36-17 after the first quarter in Orlando. Last season, the Broncos started in Statesboro against Georgia Southern where they went from -10 to as high as -13.5 and won by 11 in a 56-45 slugfest. There will be A LOT of interested parties in this game, as USF has taken money down from +9.5 to +6.
Ohio at Rutgers (-14, 46.5)
Thursday, 6 p.m. ET
A line move against a MAC school here, as Ohio with first-year head coach Brian Smith takes on Rutgers. Some anti-Bobcats sentiment makes sense with a coaching change and a fair amount of losses. Also, it is very tough for a MAC team to hold up for four quarters against a physical, run-heavy Big Ten program. That said, with a total in the mid-40s, I’m not sure we go any higher than this and some buyback would not surprise me.
Wyoming (-7, 50) at Akron
Thursday, 7 p.m. ET
Not all line moves are created equal. A line move in a very public game with a high handle is one thing. A line move in a game only a mother could love like this one is another. It’s a random roadie for the lads from Laramie as they take on a Zips team with no bowl hopes due to low APR scores. But, we’ve seen Akron money down from -9.5 to -7. Any time a team as awful as Akron is catching some steam, it catches my eye.
UNLV (-10.5, 60.5) at Sam Houston State
Friday, 9:30 p.m. ET
It is always fascinating to see how teams are viewed early in the season, particularly those coming off of bad performances. UNLV never sniffed a cover against Idaho State and had to come from behind to even win the game laying more than four touchdowns. Sam Houston State was beaten worse than the score would indicate against Western Kentucky. My guess is that this line ticks back up a little bit on Monday or Tuesday, as misleading box scores often lead to line moves. The Bearkats were terrible on offense against WKU.
Texas at Ohio State (-2, 47.5)
Saturday, Noon ET
The Big Noon Kickoff in Columbus could be a preview of the National Championship Game. It is a rematch of last year’s Cotton Bowl, as Ohio State won 28-14 in a game that was hanging in the balance before Jack Sawyer made himself a Columbus legend. This is No. 1 vs. No. 3 and a game that has enormous hype. To be honest, it may not impact the playoff picture that much, as the loser can still win their conference and get a top-four seed. Nevertheless, with Julian Sayin in his first college game, the Buckeyes have fallen off the key number of -3 and are down to -2 across most of the market. The total has also fallen a little bit as well.
Toledo at Kentucky (-7.5, 48.5)
Saturday, 12:45 p.m. ET
A random start time here for a MAC vs. SEC clash. Toledo is taking the money in this game, though, with a move down from double digits to -7.5. The Wildcats are not expected to be much of a factor in the SEC, but this was a move that took place gradually from May to June to July and then into the first week of August. The game briefly touched -7 at Circa, but that was a target number and a point of resistance for someone or some group, as the game was back to 7.5 in just over an hour.
Alabama (-13.5, 50.5) at Florida State
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
A lot of bettors seem to have it in their minds that last season was merely a blip in Tuscaloosa. Jalen Milroe wasn’t a great fit in Kalen DeBoer’s offense and he had to put his own personal stamp on the team, as he basically just inherited a lot of Nick Saban’s roster. We’ll see if Ty Simpson is a star in the making. I’ve also seen some Seminole support with Thomas Castellanos now in Tallahassee. My power ratings tend to agree with the move towards Alabama from -12.5 to -13.5, but I’m mostly highlighting this game for the magnitude of it. The spread hasn’t moved since early August.
Temple (-2.5, 49.5) at UMass
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
The “Akron Theory” applies here. When a team as bad as Temple is taking money, pay attention. The Owls flipped from a summer dog to a game-week road favorite against UMass. Two new head coaches here, so plenty of uncertainty, but it would appear that bettors believe one team sucks less than the other one.
Hawaii at Arizona (-16.5, 55.5)
Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET
A lot of cool things happened for VSiN and for the Rainbow Warriors this past weekend, but bettors flocked to take Arizona as Micah Alejado hobbled around the field in the second half of Hawaii’s win over Stanford. Stanford also just might be terrible, creating this line move after a game that the Cardinal very well could have won. But, this is probably just a reactionary move to Alejado’s injury. If we get a positive update from Timmy Chang on his status, I bet this line goes back down a bit.
Utah (-6.5, 50.5) at UCLA
Saturday, 11 p.m. ET
Former Pac-12 rivals meet in a non-conference clash in the season lid lifter. Utah went from -3.5 to -6.5 gradually over the summer, as more and more sportsbooks opened their numbers. The 3.5 was a soft number from DraftKings and it is important to note on your odds screen that DK opened the market and did so with lower limits, so it didn’t take much to move a number. The opening line on these games is probably better to look at from late June and early July as more sportsbooks opened their numbers. Nevertheless, Utah is a team with a lot of momentum in the futures market and it could be reflected in these early-season games.
Virginia Tech (-7.5, 50) vs. South Carolina
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET
This one on the fast track at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta has seen a noteworthy move on the total. DraftKings originally opened 45.5, but as other books opened up shop, the total was quickly adjusted to 48.5. That still didn’t stop the movement up to 50.5 where Circa currently stands and the consensus is more or less 50 with some shops still sitting 49.5. Hokies money has hit the spread side of things, but I wouldn’t take note of that too much unless the game hits or goes through 7.
TCU (-3.5, 58.5) at North Carolina
Monday, 8 p.m. ET
The Bill Belichick era in Chapel Hill opens up with a standalone Monday night game. This is one where the odds team at DraftKings seriously overestimated the roster and the Belichick impact, as other shops opened TCU -3 or thereabouts and that’s pretty much where this line has stood. In fact, before those other shops opened, the writing was on the wall, as DK bettors did push TCU into a favorite role by early June. Be careful analyzing these line moves off of openers this week because DK’s May numbers were not representative of the market as a whole on some of these games. Timestamps matter when analyzing line movement.
Keep an eye out for more line movements by tracking our VSiN College Football Betting Splits.
