College Football Picks
We’ve got a whole lot of college football coming up and plenty of ways to go with our Week 1 college football picks. There are so many unknowns about each and every one of these teams. Both sides of the counter are flying a little blind right now, but those who have done their research and analyzed the matchups to the best of their capabilities have the chance at coming out ahead early in the season.
The College Football Betting Guide is a good place to start and was a good place for all of us VSiN writers, hosts, and analysts to catch up on what has gone on from the transfer portal to the coaching carousel and everything in between.
There are a few Week 1 college football picks I like, so let’s get to it. Whether you agree or not, you can check out our Week 1 College Football Hub to see what others are taking and also to explore all of our college football tools, power ratings, and more.
Here are my Week 1 College Football Picks:
Odds as of Wednesday, August 27, 5:30 p.m. PT
Jacksonville State vs. UCF Prediction (-20.5, 53.5)
Thursday, 7 p.m. ET
This one has been on my radar all week, as the line kept moving until it hit a stopping point at 20.5. Scott Frost is back at UCF after his failed tenure at Nebraska and I can’t help but think he wants to let out some frustration and lay it on somebody right away. Cam Fancher will start at QB, but I think both Jacurri Brown and Tayven Jackson will play. If that’s the case, you’ll get three experienced QBs instead of one or maybe two in a game with this sort of blowout expectation.
Jacksonville State lost a ton from last season, including QB Tyler Huff and HC Rich Rodriguez. Huff had just shy of 4,000 total yards, including 29 total TDs. His right-hand man, RB Tre Stewart, had 25 rushing scores, ranking third in the nation and he was also fifth in rushing yards. Clint Trickett is more of a pass-first OC, which might be a good thing with a less mobile QB and a lesser running game, but still. I don’t expect much from this offense.
The defense has sustained heavy losses as well, including nearly all of their 25 sacks and two 100+ tackle machines. UCF has better athletes, better QBs, and a highly-motivated coach who spent last year as an analyst with Sean McVay and the Rams. I think he’ll be better for it.
If the Knights didn’t have as much depth at QB, I’d maybe shy away from laying the number, but all three guys are D-I caliber QBs that have at least seen the field a little bit.
Pick: UCF -20.5
Also, check out my Boise State vs. South Florida and Nebraska vs. Cincinnati previews for Thursday games.
UTEP vs. Utah State Pick (-6, 60.5)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
A new era in Logan begins with former BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall now leading one of his former archrivals. Utah State has high hopes for a return to prominence with the longtime head coach, whose teams are almost always tough and ready for a battle. Meanwhile, it is Year 2 of the Scotty Walden era in El Paso and the Miners are looking to move off of last season’s second-half improvement.
Former five-star recruit Malachi Nelson beat out incumbent Skyler Locklear and fellow returnee Cade McConnell for the QB job. He immediately raises the ceiling of the position. While he hasn’t really latched on at USC or Boise State, he gets a new lease on life at a program that doesn’t have the expectations that those other two have. The bar is very low here, as Locklear had a 10/6 TD/INT ratio with just under 1,600 yards last season.
The bar is similarly low at RB, where Charlotte transfer Hahsaun Wilson, who had over six yards per carry with the 49ers, should share some carries with holdovers looking for more reps after the Miners had just 3.3 yards per carry last season. Nelson has last season’s top two targets back at WR, including Kenny Odom, who came with Walden from Austin Peay and had over 16 yards per catch.
Walden is viewed as a sharp young offensive mind, so he made a move to bring in a better defensive mind in Bobby Daly, who was the DC at FCS stalwart Montana State. The Bobcats made the FCS National Championship Game last season.
The Aggies have a dual-threat QB in Bryson Barnes, but lost Rahsul Faison, who was just granted another year of eligibility at South Carolina after running for over 1,100 yards. Utah State has more than 70 new players in the program, so returning production is not a big strength for this team. The guys who are back on defense got gashed for 5.4 yards per carry and 6.5 yards per play.
While Utah State added some beef up front on the defensive line, UTEP wants to play with tempo and spread out the defense with an offense based off of Kendal Briles’ system. That will slow down the Utah State pass rush and probably tire out those big boys as everybody tries to get into midseason shape. UTEP is a live dog for the upset, let alone getting a six-point head start.
Pick: UTEP +6
Georgia Southern vs. Fresno State Prediction (+1.5, 51.5)
9:30 p.m. ET
Well, we have a data point for Fresno State. It wasn’t a good one, but we have one. Matt Entz’s debut was a dud against Kansas, but his players got to go out there and hit somebody other than each other. Georgia Southern was still working out the final kinks before taking the long trip west.
I think the wrong team is favored here, as we’ve seen Georgia Southern money hit the board after an opening-line adjustment based off of the Bulldogs’ bad look last Saturday. Georgia Southern is not a Big 12 team. While they do return a starting QB for the first time in Clay Helton’s tenure, JC French led the team to their worst numbers in YPP, PPG, and yards per carry. The defense gave up over 6.4 yards per play to teams with losing records.
Defensive Player of the Year Marques Watson-Trent is no longer in the Sun Belt, so they lost an award winner back there and their best defensive player. This is not a team that gets after the QB effectively and doesn’t create many negative plays.
Also, while the 31-7 score was quite ugly, Fresno State did score on their scripted drive, the first for new QB EJ Warner before giving up 24 unanswered points. Kansas’s only scoring drive of the second half was 49 yards. Their fourth-quarter drives averaged 3.3, 1.0, and 3.0 yards per play before kneeling out the final possession. Obviously they were running the ball a lot, but Entz, who was the DC at North Dakota State before spending a year at USC, seemingly made some good halftime adjustments.
This is a sizable step down in class and Entz and his staff had the chance to evaluate what they saw on film. Plus, I’m a big fan of DC Nick Benedetto, who spent the last three seasons at Northern Illinois with a team that knocked off Boston College and Notre Dame on his watch.
Pick: Fresno State +1.5
Notre Dame vs. Miami Prediction (+3, 49.5)
Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET
The Fighting Irish and Hurricanes meet in a very big game that gets a standalone Sunday night window. This line has finally moved to -3 in ND’s favor across most of the market, but 2.5s were still available at time of writing. In my Power Ratings, I have Notre Dame -5.5 here and I’m perfectly content with being on the Marcus Freeman side against Mario Cristobal.
While ND has some QB questions with CJ Carr, who emerged from a summer-long QB competition, I’m not sure Carson Beck is the answer at The U either. He’s coming off of UCL surgery and I really believe he benefitted from the running game and the field position advantages of being at Georgia. If Miami can give him those things, he can have success, but Notre Dame is a very stout, well-coached defensive team.
Not only that, but Beck’s opportunities may be limited by an elite Fighting Irish running game led by Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. We may even see the coming-out party for Aneyas Williams this season and in a game like this. The heat and humidity of Coral Gables could be an issue for the Irish, but this is a late enough start that I think they’ll be able to get by.
If you can get -2.5, that’s great. If you have to take -3, I still think that’s fine. One team is just better than the other in my opinion and one coach is vastly better than the other.
Pick: Notre Dame -3
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