Week 1 College Football Predictions:

The element of the unknown is prevalent in Week 1, as college football bettors put money down on their preseason opinions. Betting odds for this week’s games have been up for quite a while now, but we’re seeing some noteworthy line moves with increased betting limits and a whole lot more interest. The truth is that no matter how much you prepare for the season, gather news, and make assumptions, this isn’t like the NFL where we mostly know all the players and teams.

At the same time, while uncertainty can be a mental hurdle to firing on games, the oddsmakers are learning right along with us, so this is not a very efficient market for the first few weeks of the season. Hopefully we can all capitalize on it.

 

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I’ll be looking to do that with these Week 1 college football picks and predictions.

Miami (OH) Redhawks at Northwestern Wildcats (-3, 39.5)

3:30 p.m. ET, BTN

We’re ushering in a new era of Wildcat football in Evanston with this game. Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium takes over for Ryan Field, as Northwestern invests in a refurbished version of home. They’ll play games right next to Lake Michigan in front of an intimate crowd. Fortunately, it isn’t cold in the Windy City yet, but those days will come.

More importantly, the Northwestern offense may have some new life this year. South Dakota State OC/QB Coach Zach Lujan is now the offensive coordinator and he brings a very impressive resume. The Jackrabbits have been one of the top FCS offenses in recent years and Northwestern head coach David Braun had a front row seat as the DC at North Dakota State prior to taking the DC job with the Wildcats last year. He was elevated to head coach when Pat Fitzgerald was fired and the Wildcats had a solid defense.

Now, I think they can pair a solid offense with that. Mike Wright, who spent time at Vanderbilt and Mississippi State takes over at QB. Vandy has a rough time in just about every game and Mississippi State was a mess last season after the tragic death of Mike Leach, so I think there’s some potential here.

Miami is perennially solid under Chuck Martin and has 12th-year starter Brett Gabbert back, but this is a tough opening task against a very well-coached Wildcats crew. The Redhawks do return a lot of talent, which is rare for a good Group of Five program, but I believe Northwestern is undervalued with the changes that they’ve made.

Pick: Northwestern -3

North Texas Mean Green at South Alabama Jaguars (-5, 64.5)

5 p.m. ET, ESPN+

North Texas is a team that I found myself bullish on after writing up the AAC Preview for our College Football Betting Guide. South Alabama is a team I found myself bearish on when writing up the Sun Belt Preview. And, now, the two teams collide in Week 1.

UNT brought in former TCU and Oklahoma QB Chandler Morris to run the Air Raid offense of Eric Morris (no relation) and OC Jordan Davis. He’s got a former TCU teammate Zach Evans to spearhead the running game and a talented, but raw group of pass catchers. Moving the football was no problem for the Mean Green last season, as they were a top 10 offense in yards per game and top 15 in passing yards per game.

But, the defense was atrocious. Now that DC Matt Caponi is in Year 2 with the 3-3-5 and the Mean Green hit the portal hard, hopefully we see some gains on that side of the ball. Plus, the players that were in the scheme last year should have a better grasp of it.

Also, South Alabama lost a lot of offensive production when Caullin Lacy went to Louisville and LaDamian Webb ran out of eligibility. Furthermore, Carter Bradley and Desmond Trotter are both gone, leaving behind short-statured Gio Lopez at QB.

Those aren’t the only losses. The Jaguars return only three starters on defense and also no longer have DC Corey Batoon (Missouri) or head coach Kane Wommack (Alabama DC). That’s a lot of brainpower to lose going into this one against a high-octane offense. I’m not a big Major Applewhite guy and I don’t think his offense will be able to keep up.

Pick: North Texas +5 (with a moneyline sprinkle)

Wyoming Cowboys at Arizona State Sun Devils (-7, 47.5)

10:30 p.m. ET, FS1

A night game at home isn’t a bad idea for the Arizona State students to celebrate the return of college football. However, I think this is a tricky opponent for the Sun Devils out of the gate. The Cowboys are a physical bunch that will run the football a lot, but new OC Jay Johnson does want to spread opponents out and use QB Evan Svoboda’s big arm and big body to try and create explosive plays.

RB Harrison Waylee is likely out, but UNC transfer D.J. Jones should get a crack at he was a three-star coming out of high school as a top-40 running back in his class per 247. With ASU’s rebuilt defense and a lot of inexperience in the front seven, I think Wyoming can gain some ground in the turf war.

Arizona State will also roll with redshirt freshman Sam Leavitt at QB and he has to deal with some injuries on the offensive line as well. This is an Arizona State team that opened for Kenny Dillingham last season with a 24-21 win over Southern Utah and lost to Oklahoma State and Fresno State by a combined 56-15. I expect Wyoming to keep this close. In my College Football Power Ratings, I have Wyoming only +3.5.

Pick: Wyoming +7

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