Week 1 College Football Predictions
Well, it wasn’t quite the Week 0 I hoped for, but that would’ve been much easier to swallow if not for the monsoon and plethora of weather-related miscues in the Iowa State/Kansas State game, and Sam Houston keeping the game tight all game… until it wasn’t. Nonetheless, that’s what happens when betting on college football so it was a good warmup week for my emotional roller coaster that is college football Saturdays.
We finally have a full slate after all these months, and I’m ready to fire away. Here are some of my favorite plays so far for Week 1:
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.
Cincinnati +6.5 vs. Nebraska
I think I may be alone on the Nebraska season win total Under bandwagon, because everyone seems to be enamored with the Huskers and second-year signal-caller, Dylan Raiola and we’ve heard all about Matt Rhule’s turnaround jobs – which have been fantastic at previous stops. But TSI is definitely lower on Nebraska than most, and that shows here as TSI projects Nebraska -3.5 at this neutral-site game. Both teams were outside the top 90 in points per play last year on offense, and both defenses were outside the top 45 in opponent points per play. TSI has this matchup as the #61 offense of Cincinnati vs the #22 defense of Nebraska, and on the flip side, the #64 offense of Nebraska vs the #38 defense of Cincinnati. I think these teams are actually much closer than people think, and I don’t even have to look up Nebraska’s record in single-score games recently – even under Matt Rhule.
Bet: Cincinnati +6.5 or better
Michigan State -19.5 vs. Western Michigan
This is one I jumped on early, when Michigan State was laying just 17 earlier in the summer, but I still would take this at anything at 21 or better. Michigan State showed signs last year that they had some pieces that could be very high-level players, especially receiver Nick Marsh, who averaged almost 16 yards per catch last year en route to 649 yards and 3 TDs, not to mention QB Aidan Chiles, who threw for 2,400 yards but has to keep the turnovers in check this season. Western Michigan should be very bad this year, ranked just #120 in TSI, while the Spartans are #39. Matchup-wise, this is the 56th-ranked offense of Michigan State vs the #126 defense of Western Michigan. On the other side of the ball, it’s #108 offense of the Broncos vs #33 defense of the Spartans. All of that to say, TSI projects Michigan State -26, so it’s all green in this game.
Bet: Michigan State -21 or better
Southern Miss +11.5 vs. Mississippi State
Southern Miss was one of the worst teams in the country last year, no doubt about it. Mississippi State is an SEC team with real dudes on the roster, so why is this line 11.5 and moving towards USM? Enter the Marshall transfer brigade, including Sun Belt player of the year, Braylon Braxton, and head coach Charles Huff. Southern Miss Over 5.5 wins was one of my favorite season win total bets, and I’m investing in them early here before the secret is out that they’re going to be playing some real ball this year. TSI projects the Bulldogs by just 4.5 on the road in what figures to be one of the biggest home games in Hattiesburg in quite some time. I’ll take the Eagles at anything above 10 here, and don’t be in utter shock if they manage to pull off some Week 1 magic here and spring the upset.
Bet: Southern Miss +10 or better
For more Week 1 college football predictions and analysis, visit the College Football Week 1 Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
