Week 10 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:

It’s often better to stick to your strengths as a bettor. I play mostly underdogs, and my strongest conferences as a handicapper are the Big Ten and Mountain West. Five home ‘dogs from my two favorite conferences make my Week 10 college football best bets list:

Ohio State (-3.5) at Penn State

Banking on James Franklin in a big game is risky business. The Penn State coach has lost seven straight games against Ohio State and is 1-9 in the one-sided rivalry. The third-ranked Nittany Lions (7-0) own quality road wins over USC, West Virginia and Wisconsin, but the No. 4 Buckeyes (6-1) represent by far the toughest test on Franklin’s schedule. Franklin is a bully who normally beats bad and unranked opponents yet fails miserably when stepping up in class. He should not be outclassed in this matchup this year.

 

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Aside from a one-point loss at Oregon, Ohio State has not been whipping elite competition. Last week, the Buckeyes finished with 11 first downs and 285 total yards, including only 64 rushing yards, and needed a fourth-quarter rally to defeat Nebraska 21-17. It’s possible Ohio State’s weak output was an aberration caused in part by offensive line injuries, and the truth is veteran quarterback Will Howard is surrounded by plenty of playmakers, so the potential for more is there. But the Penn State defense is obviously no pushover.

The Nittany Lions also face some quarterback questions this week. Drew Allar has a knee injury and could be a game-time decision to start, but he’s practicing and seems likely to go. If not, backup Beau Pribula showed an ability to trigger the offense by leading two touchdown drives against the Badgers last week. Pribula can throw with accuracy and runs well, and two of the nation’s top running backs — Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton — are ready to roll. Franklin hired offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki away from Kansas to help him get over the hump in big games such as this. Franklin could screw this up, so I’m well aware of the risks while taking the points.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: Penn State +3.5

Indiana (-8) at Michigan State

Curt Cignetti’s instant rebuild of a tradition-poor Indiana program puts him among the Coach of the Year favorites, along with Mike Elko of Texas A&M and Clark Lea of Vanderbilt. Cignetti must be an incredible motivator because his 8-0 team has been bulletproof to letdown spots. The Hoosiers are no longer hapless, winning their five Big Ten games by an average margin of 24.6 points. Kurtis Rourke (74.6 percent completions, 15 touchdown passes) will return from thumb surgery to start for Indiana, which has Michigan and Ohio State next on the schedule. Every team eventually hits an emotional flat spot, and the Hoosiers are past due for one in East Lansing.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: Michigan State +8

Oregon (-14.5) at Michigan

It’s certainly possible quarterback Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks possess too much firepower for the Wolverines, who find themselves in a constant struggle to score. Michigan quarterbacks have combined for seven touchdown passes and nine interceptions. Davis Warren, who has completed 67 percent of his passes, gets the start. But with the defending national champions being two-touchdown home ‘dogs, this game is about respect, and the Wolverines will show up to fight with a defense that’s strong enough to slow Gabriel.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: Michigan +14.5

USC (-2) at Washington

After blowout losses at Iowa and Indiana, the Huskies return home, where coach Jedd Fisch is 4-0 in his first season in Seattle. Fisch is stressing the importance of qualifying for a bowl, and a victory over USC is essential in reaching that goal. Veteran quarterback Will Rogers is putting up good numbers (72.3 percent completions, 2,022 yards and 13 touchdowns) along with running back Jonah Coleman (785 yards, 6.7 per carry and five TDs), so that duo can be counted on to move the ball against a USC defense showing attrition and wear and tear. With a team that appears uninspired, Trojans coach Lincoln Riley is winless in three Big Ten road games.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: Washington +2

Colorado State (-2.5) at Nevada

Boise State and Colorado State are tied atop the Mountain West standings at 3-0, but that’s about all the two teams have in common. The Broncos are the real deal and the Rams are not. Without injured leading receiver Tory Horton, Colorado State’s offense has been in decline, averaging 19 points in the past two games against weak Air Force and New Mexico teams. Brendon Lewis, a dynamic dual-threat quarterback, is returning from a head injury to boost the Nevada offense. First-year coach Jeff Choate is dealing with a long list of injured starters, but Lewis is back and Choate should have the Wolf Pack ready to roll in the home underdog role.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: Nevada +3 (-130)

Last week: 2-4-1 against the spread
Season: 23-21-2

For more Week 10 college football analysis, visit the Week 10 College Football Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.

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