Week 10 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Wes Reynolds:

Let’s take a look at my Week 10 college football best bets:

 

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Air Force at No. 21 Army (-22.5; 41)

Army continues to be undefeated and on the short list for the Group of 5 spot in the CFP. This week, the Black Knights get rival Air Force in a Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy battle that will culminate with Army and Navy meeting in December.

While Army is not only unbeaten SU, they are also without a blemish ATS (7-0). On the other hand, Air Force is 0-7 ATS in what is a rebuilding year for Troy Calhoun in Colorado Springs.

Recall last year that it was Air Force that was 8-0 and lost to a 2-6 Army club as a 17.5-point favorite, so upsets can happen in this series, and underdogs are on a good run, going close to 61% over the last two decades in service academy matchups.

Army is 7-0, but they have played a schedule of opponents (Lehigh, at Florida Atlantic, Rice, at Temple, Tulsa, UAB, and East Carolina) with a combined record of 9-33.

Both teams are off a bye, but the off week should likely benefit Air Force more, considering they are 1-6 and the season is essentially lost. This is basically the Falcons’ bowl game for the season.

Navy certainly put it to Air Force last month with a 34-7 victory, but the Midshipmen are running many different wrinkles in their new offense while Army is running their base triple option that Air Force runs and faces in practice every day.

The number is just a tad high, and Army is at its market peak.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: Air Force +22.5

Vanderbilt at Auburn (-7.5; 48)

Vanderbilt, even in a 27-24 defeat to Texas last week, continues to be one of college football’s better stories, and the Commodores are one victory away from bowl eligibility. Diego Pavia has carried Vanderbilt on his back, but the weight is starting to be heavy as he deals with various injuries.

Auburn stopped the bleeding of a four-game losing streak last week, playing its most complete game of the season in a 24-10 win at Kentucky. The Tigers piled up just under 500 yards (498, with 326 on the ground) against an excellent Kentucky defense.

The Tigers also get another crack at Pavia, tight end and leading receiver Eli Stowers (36 catches, 496 yards, 3 TD), and current coaching consultant Jerry Kill, who led New Mexico State to a 31-10 victory on the plain at Auburn last year as a 26-point underdog.

Auburn is just 3-5, largely due to a -9 TO margin, but are outgaining their opponents by 108 yards per game (90 per game vs. SEC opponents). They are a bit undervalued, and the market has come in on them. I personally laid -6.5, so this would be smaller at the current number.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: Auburn -7 (-120)

Louisville at No. 11 Clemson (-10.5; 62)

Clemson looked done for in the opening week of the season after being beaten down vs. Georgia. However, they have won six straight and are unbeaten in the ACC. It is a winning streak, but competition (Appalachian State, NC State, Stanford, at Florida State, at Wake Forest, and Virginia) for the Tigers has not exactly been stiff.

On the other hand, Louisville has had a tough schedule over the last month. They lost by just 7 at Notre Dame, by 7 vs. SMU, won at Virginia and at Boston College, plus another 7-point loss vs. Miami.

Clemson is in the better spot here off a bye, but Louisville has clearly been more battle-tested.

Jeff Brohm is 26-18-1 ATS in his career as an underdog and 18-9 ATS as an underdog of 6 or more.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: Louisville +10.5

No. 10 Texas A&M (-3; 44) at South Carolina

Texas A&M trailed 17-7 at the half last week to LSU. Then, Mike Elko pulled QB Connor Weigman and inserted Marcel Reed. Reed only threw two passes in the second half but ran for three touchdowns to give the Aggies a 38-23 victory.

Elko said (in an obvious shot at his predecessor, Jimbo Fisher) after the game, “This is a real program; it’s not fake. It’s not a politician running this program, talking fast and BS-ing everybody. This is a real program, and for all the recruits out there, this is a real place.” 

Now, the Aggies are a viable CFP contender, but they have a tricky trip to Columbia, facing a South Carolina team that is a little better than its 4-3 record might indicate.

The Gamecocks come off a bye and have another opportunity to knock off a big boy here after close losses to LSU (questionable officiating went against them down the stretch) and at Alabama, where they held the Tide to just 104 yards on 38 carries.

Unlike LSU, South Carolina should be prepared to face the more mobile Reed at QB. Furthermore, the Aggies, while on a seven-game win streak, have been a bit fortunate. They held on to beat Bowling Green only by six as a three-touchdown favorite. In addition, they were +3 in turnovers for a 21-17 victory over Arkansas, where they were outgained by 82 yards. They also only won by ten at Mississippi State as nearly three-touchdown favs.

South Carolina’s Lanorris Sellers is also showing improvement as a passer, going 39-for-55 for 413 yards and three touchdown passes combined in his last two starts at Alabama and at Oklahoma.

This should prove to be a tough spot for the Aggies.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: South Carolina +3

No. 18 Pittsburgh at No. 20 SMU (-7.5; 57.5)

Turnovers were the story for both of these clubs last week. Pitt defeated Syracuse 41-13 despite only gaining 217 yards. The Panthers had three pick-sixes for touchdowns in the first half and gained five turnovers for a +5 margin. Meanwhile, SMU was -6 in the turnover margin and needed a blocked field goal to end regulation and failed 2-point attempt in OT to hold off Duke, 28-27.

Pitt QB Eli Holstein left last week’s game with an injury but will get the start Saturday. Whether he is 100% or not, Holstein will have to make plays in the passing game because SMU ranks Top 10 nationally in both yards/rush (2.9) and rushing yards/game (96.1).

SMU has not played at home in over a month but just won three straight on the road in October (at Louisville, at Stanford, at Duke). Both teams are still unbeaten in conference play and looking to join Miami and Clemson as viable conference contenders. Pitt has been living dangerously lately and will not be able to match SMU score for score.

Week 10 College Football Best Bet: SMU -7.5

BEST OF THE REST
Memphis/UTSA OVER 60.5
Purdue -1 vs. Northwestern
Florida/Georgia UNDER 52.5
Rice +12 vs. Navy
Washington +3 (-120) vs. USC

For more College Football Week 10 predictions, visit the College Football Week 10 Hub at VSiN.com.

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