Week 10 College Football Odds, Power Ratings and Projections

Week 10 College Football

We’re into double digits for the college football season now. Week 10 college football power ratings sure have changed a lot from where they were back in Week 1. Obviously that’s to be expected, especially in an era with such extreme roster turnover, but there have been some big surprises and some really big disappointments.

In terms of some of my biggest movements, here are the five largest:

Up: Vanderbilt +12.5, Indiana +11, San Diego State +11, Utah +9, South Florida +9

Down: Oklahoma State -15, Clemson -14, Boston College -13, Liberty -13, Penn State -12.5, Buffalo -12.5

All of those seem pretty warranted if you ask me. We’ll continue to see teams rise up and fall back over the final few weeks of the regular season. We’re in a really weird time of the season where some teams and coaches are planning for the future because they want to play some of their underclassmen in hopes that they stay. We’re also going to see some more head coaches let go and that will send ripples through the program. Power ratings are still valuable, but as we get deeper into the season, there can be more and more unquantifiable factors to a handicap, and we’re not really going to be privy to them because we’re not in the locker room.

All we can handicap is what we see and what we think. And I like having power ratings because they keep me more grounded instead of overreacting to different things. That’s why I keep doing them and also why I share them in hopes that they provide some help to the audience.

Week 10 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Ohio State	92.5	3.5
2	Oregon	90.5	3.5
3	Indiana	90	2.5
4	Alabama	88	3.5
5	Georgia	87.5	3
6	Notre Dame	87	3
7	Texas A&M	85.5	2
8	Vanderbilt	84	1.5
9	Texas	83.5	3.5
10	Miami (Florida)	83	2
11	Texas Tech	83	3
12	Utah	83	3
13	Mississippi	81.5	3
14	USC	81	3
15	Oklahoma	80.5	3
16	Tennessee	80.5	3.5
17	Michigan	79.5	3
18	Missouri	77.5	3.5
19	Penn State	77.5	3.5
20	Cincinnati	77	1.5
21	Florida	77	2
22	Georgia Tech	77	2
23	Iowa	77	3
24	Auburn	76.5	2
25	LSU	76.5	3.5
26	Washington	76.5	3.5
27	Arizona State	75	2
28	BYU	75	2
29	Iowa State	75	2
30	Louisville	75	3.5
31	Clemson	74	2.5
32	TCU	74	3
33	Duke	73	3.5
34	Houston	73	2
35	Mississippi State	73	2
36	Pittsburgh	73	2
37	Arizona	72.5	2
38	Illinois	72.5	2
39	Nebraska	72.5	2
40	South Florida	72	1.5
41	SMU	71.5	3.5
42	South Carolina	71.5	2.5
43	Florida State	71	2
44	Boise State	70.5	3.5
45	Memphis	70.5	2.5
46	Arkansas	70	2
47	Kentucky	69.5	2
48	Minnesota	69.5	2
49	Baylor	69	2
50	Kansas State	69	3.5
51	Rutgers	68.5	2
52	Virginia	68.5	2
53	Northwestern	67.5	1.5
54	James Madison	67	3
55	North Carolina State	67	2
56	Tulane	67	2.5
57	Colorado	66.5	2
58	Kansas	66.5	2.5
59	North Texas	66.5	2
60	Wake Forest	66.5	2
61	UCLA	66	2
62	East Carolina	65.5	2
63	Maryland	65.5	2
64	UCF	65.5	2
65	Navy	64.5	2
66	Michigan State	64	2
67	Purdue	63.5	1
68	San Diego State	63.5	2
69	Virginia Tech	63.5	2
70	Wisconsin	63	2
71	California	61.5	2
72	Toledo	61	3
73	Hawai’i	60.5	2
74	Old Dominion	60.5	1.5
75	Connecticut	60	2.5
76	New Mexico	60	2
77	Southern Mississippi	60	2
78	UNLV	60	2.5
79	Temple	59.5	2
80	Utah State	59	2
81	Army	58.5	2.5
82	Syracuse	58.5	2.5
83	Miami (Ohio)	58	2.5
84	North Carolina	58	2
85	UTSA	58	3.5
86	West Virginia	58	2
87	Fresno State	57	2
88	San Jose State	57	2.5
89	Air Force	56.5	2
90	Kennesaw State	56.5	1.5
91	Ohio	56.5	3.5
92	Texas State	56.5	2
93	Troy	56	3
94	Washington State	56	3
95	Boston College	55.5	2
96	Stanford	55.5	1
97	South Alabama	55	2
98	Wyoming	55	2
99	Louisiana Tech	54.5	2
100	Florida Atlantic	53.5	2
101	Western Michigan	53.5	2
102	Marshall	53	3
103	Oregon State	52.5	3.5
104	Jacksonville State	52	3.5
105	Western Kentucky	52	2.5
106	Central Michigan	51.5	2
107	Louisiana-Lafayette	51.5	2
108	Tulsa	51.5	1
109	UAB	51	2.5
110	Arkansas State	50.5	2
111	Georgia Southern	50.5	3.5
112	Delaware	50	3
113	Rice	50	3
114	Appalachian State	49.5	2
115	Colorado State	49.5	2
116	Florida International	49.5	2
117	Bowling Green	48	2
118	Oklahoma State	48	2
119	Georgia State	47	1
120	Liberty	47	3
121	Missouri State	47	2
122	Nevada	47	1
123	Northern Illinois	47	1
124	Buffalo	46.5	2
125	Coastal Carolina	46.5	2
126	Eastern Michigan	46	2
127	UTEP	46	2
128	Louisiana-Monroe	44	2
129	Middle Tennessee	44	2
130	Akron	42.5	2
131	New Mexico State	42.5	2.5
132	Kent State	42	1
133	Sam Houston State	42	0.5
134	Ball State	41.5	2.5
135	Charlotte	39	1
136	Massachusetts	33.5	1

Here are my Week 10 power ratings adjustments:

Up: Kennesaw State +4, Middle Tennessee +2.5, North Texas +1.5, West Virginia +2, Indiana +1.5, Stanford +1.5, North Carolina +1.5, NC State +1.5, Troy +1.5, Kent State +3, Western Michigan +3, Northwestern +1.5, New Mexico +2.5, San Diego State +5, Texas A&M +1.5, Vanderbilt +2.5, Houston +2.5, FAU +1.5, Washington State +3, Wyoming +1.5, South Alabama +1.5, Georgia State +1.5, Georgia Tech +1.5, Memphis +2, Iowa +1.5, Temple +2, Missouri State +2.5, Wake Forest +2.5, Duke +2.5, Iowa State +3, Cincinnati +1.5

Down: FIU -2.5, Delaware -3.5, Charlotte -1.5, Buffalo -2, Central Michigan -1.5, Miami (FL) -1, Michigan -1, Pitt -1, Eastern Michigan -1.5, Bowling Green -4, Arkansas -3.5, Old Dominion -2, Kansas -2.5, LSU -1.5, Missouri -5.5 (Pribula inj.), BYU -2.5, Alabama -1.5, Texas Tech -2, Arizona State -3.5, Navy -1.5, Toledo -1.5, Colorado State -1.5, Colorado -2.5, Clemson -2.5, Baylor -2.5, Western Kentucky -2.5

Some notes on the biggest movers:

San Diego State +5: I’ve been a little bit slow to adjust the Aztecs, but after another resounding win, it was time to do something a little more drastic than just a couple of points.

Kennesaw State +4: This is both a market adjustment and also a bit of respect for the Owls, who have been playing really well for Jerry Mack in what I expected to be a very tough year.

Western Michigan +3: Not a great showing for the Broncos this week, but their defense does have an impressive set of numbers and I think I’ve been neglecting that a little too much.

Washington State +3: Bit of a market correction here, as I was way off on Toledo/Washington State. I’m still low on the Cougars it appears based on this week’s line against Oregon State.

Iowa State +3: I’ve had a hard time gauging this team over the course of the season. I had BYU a road favorite last week and while the Cougars did win, the Cyclones largely gave them the game.

Missouri -5.5: An ugly leg injury suffered by Beau Pribula definitely hurts the team moving forward. We’ll see if 5.5 is right or not.

Bowling Green -4: The MAC has been a moving target for me, as none of these teams are any good, but some will look good one week and not the next. Bowling Green is a team I’ve been too high on for a couple of weeks now.

Arkansas -3.5: Taylen Green is good. The rest of the team is not.

Arizona State -3.5: I’ve been too optimistic on ASU for a while now. I dug my heels in following the win over Baylor, but this is the week I’ve decided to stop being stubborn. Also, Jordyn Tyson might be the most valuable WR not named Jeremiah Smith in CFB this season.

Delaware -3.5: A team I got a little eager on. I still think they’re decent, but they are not good on defense at all.

My Week 10 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
10/28	UTEP	Kennesaw State	-12
	James Madison	Texas State	+8.5
10/29	Jacksonville State	Middle Tennessee	+6
	FIU	Missouri State	+0.5
10/30	Marshall	Coastal Carolina	+4.5
	Tulane	UTSA	+5.5
10/31	Memphis	Rice	+17.5
	North Carolina	Syracuse	-3
	Sam Houston	Louisiana Tech	-14.5
11/1	Louisiana	South Alabama	-5.5
	East Carolina	Temple	+4
	Oklahoma	Tennessee	-3.5
	Notre Dame	Boston College	+29.5
	Duke	Clemson	-3.5
	Wake Forest	Florida State	-6.5
	Indiana	Maryland	+22.5
	Purdue	Michigan	-19
	Georgia Tech	NC State	+8
	Penn State	Ohio State	-18.5
	Louisville	Virginia Tech	+9.5
	Buffalo	Bowling Green	-3.5
	Central Michigan	Western Michigan	-4
	Army	Air Force	PK
	Vanderbilt	Texas (w/ Manning)	-3
	Rutgers	Illinois	-6
	Michigan State	Minnesota	-7.5
	Arizona State	Iowa State	-2
	UAB	UConn	-11.5
	UCF	Baylor	-5.5
	Fresno State	Boise State	-17
	Cincinnati	Utah (w/ Dampier)	-9
	Arizona	Colorado	+4
	Washington State	Oregon State	PK
	Virginia	Cal	+5
	New Mexico	UNLV	-2.5
	Pitt	Stanford	+16.5
	Texas Tech	Kansas State	+10.5
	Arkansas State	Troy	-8.5
	Miami (FL)	SMU	+8
	West Virginia	Houston	-17
	Kentucky	Auburn	-9
	Mississippi State	Arkansas	+1
	Navy	North Texas	-4
	Old Dominion	UL Monroe	+14.5
	Oklahoma State	Kansas	-21
	USC	Nebraska	+6.5
	South Carolina	Mississippi	-13
	Delaware	Liberty	PK
	New Mexico State	Western Kentucky	-12
	Georgia	Florida (N – Jax’ville)	+10.5
	Wyoming	San Diego State	-10.5
	Hawaii	San Jose State	+1

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

FIU +4 (-0.5) at Missouri State: FIU was great against Western Kentucky and then bad against Kennesaw State. They did have over 500 yards of offense in that game, so maybe they weren’t as bad as it seems. Guess we’ll see.

Rutgers +13 (+6) at Illinois: Maybe I’m too low on Illinois, but I also don’t think they’ve done anything special this season despite all of the offseason hype. 

Minnesota -5 (-7.5) vs. Michigan State: The Spartans are not good at all. The market has strongly disliked Minnesota a couple of weeks in a row. Might get a better price on this one. Jonathan Smith has been a real dud in East Lansing. I can’t believe they didn’t go get a QB last offseason.

Mississippi State +4 (-1) at Arkansas: The Razorbacks were in great shape last week and gave the game away to a subpar Auburn team. Mississippi State’s collapse to Texas is going to be hard for the Bulldogs to overcome, but they have a chance at a good road win here.

Georgia -7.5 (-10.5) vs. Florida: The neutral-site Cocktail Party here. Both teams are off of a bye. I just don’t think DJ Lagway is very good and who knows how Florida looks after the firing of Billy Napier.

Hawaii +2 (-1) vs. San Jose State: Hawaii’s a very good team and they get punished in the betting market anytime they are coming to the mainland. I had them a road favorite at Colorado State and they weren’t. I have them a road favorite here. I’ll trust ‘em.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.