Week 11 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 11 college football best bets:
Colorado (+9.5) vs. Houston
Houston hung on for a 31-24 victory over Cincinnati last week and rose three spots to No. 14 in the CFP. The Cougars do have a path into the CFP but need some help in front of them both in the rankings and in the Big XII standings.
Meanwhile, Colorado is 3-6 and needs to win out just to get bowl-eligible.
While just 1-4 as a starter, Buffs QB Isaac Wilson has been an upgrade, and the Colorado offense has outgained its opponents in four of its last five games. The Houston defense can also be gotten as the Cougars rank just 125th (out of 138 teams) in EPA/Play, 116th in Success Rate, and 106th in Yards/Play.
The Houston offense is certainly explosive, ranking No. 2 nationally in Success Rate, but Colorado is fairly stiff against the run (9th EPA/Rush) and is top 10 nationally in Defensive Havoc %.
This is still a big number for Houston to lay on the road, playing on a short week with a defense prone to giving up late scores.
Duke (+14, -120) at Miami (FL)
This is the “bubble burst” game for Miami after losing its first game of the season last week in South Bend. The Hurricanes did rally in the second half but still fell 31-24 to Notre Dame. Nevertheless, Miami is still undefeated in ACC play (6-0) and very much in the driver’s seat for the ACC Championship Game.
Heisman co-favorite Darian Mensah will get to face his old team this week as Duke comes into town. Duke’s head coach Manny Diaz, a Miami native, was the U’s head coach from 2019-2021 but was fired after three seasons.
Miami leads the nation in scoring offense at 45 ppg, but it is a step below its high standard without WR Malachi Toney. Duke’s defense ranks fifth in scoring at 13 ppg and has held five of its nine opponents to single digits. That certainly will not happen here, but Duke will certainly make Miami work for those points and be able to at least slightly limit explosives.
Diaz is 12-4 ATS as an Away Dog for his career, and the Blue Devils are a dangerous opponent for Miami to face after putting everything into the Notre Dame game last week.
SMU (-115 ML) vs. Wake Forest
Wake Forest is currently one spot from the top 12 at No. 13 in the CFP Rankings. The Demon Deacons have crushed their last five opponents by a cumulative score of 264-31. On Thursday, Wake head coach Jake Dickert signed a long-term contract extension.
Everything is rolling for Wake Forest as the Deacs rank No. 1 in EPA/Play, and top 10 in Success Rate, Yards/Play, Havoc %, and several others. Yet, they are an underdog here to SMU?
The Mustangs are 7-2 and find themselves unranked. However, SMU is off its most impressive victory of the season, putting up 51 points and 569 yards on what had been a solid Virginia Tech defense.
SMU QB Kevin Jennings has certainly had his issues with turnovers, but he has been much better at home in Dallas with a 7-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio versus a slightly above 1-to-1 on the road.
Wake Forest is on a 7-0 ATS run, and they’ve won their last five games against subpar competition by 46.6 ppg and 292 ypg, but they only beat Louisville by 3 and Purdue by 2 in OT in earlier road games.
SMU is 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS at home in conference games since joining the ACC in 2024.
Texas A&M (+2.5) vs. Tennessee
This is the Smelly Cat line of the week. Tennessee jumped up five spots to No. 8 in the CFP in a 34-6 victory over Kentucky that was a bit deceiving. The score was just 13-6 heading into the fourth quarter. The yardage was even, but Kentucky did commit three turnovers and were stopped on downs twice.
On the other hand, Texas A&M earned 26 first downs, put up 457 yards, and did not commit a turnover. Yet, they only scored nine points.
It was arguably the “Bad Beat of the Week” on the Aggies +7.5. They put up those offensive numbers and failed to cover in a 17-9 loss, as they saw LaNorris Sellers run for a 41-yard touchdown on a gimpy ankle to give South Carolina the victory.
The Aggies are back at home playing their first SEC home game in well over a month. They are arguably the most disappointing team of the season as they began the preseason ranked No. 8 in the AP poll. Holmon Wiggins was promoted to offensive coordinator after Collin Klein departed to return to his alma mater and become the head coach at Kansas State. Wiggins and the staff have tried to turn QB Marcel Reed into a pocket passer, and the results have not been there, with Reed posting career lows in completion percentage, yards/attempt, and QB Rating. At 4-5. A&M has nothing to lose and might let Reed get out of the pocket to make plays with his legs and throw more on the run, since he might have to anyway. Tennessee leads the nation with 39 sacks.
Tennessee has everything to play for, and Texas A&M is just fighting for any bowl eligibility at this point, and the line is just 2.5? Things that make you go hmmmmm.
Oklahoma (+1.5) vs. Mississippi
With its third loss and no marquee games left, Ole Miss is all but eliminated from the CFP after being thrashed 42-7 by Georgia last week.
On the other hand, Oklahoma is off its most impressive performance of the season with a 23-7 victory at Florida. Jason Witten took over the play calling after OC Ben Arbuckle was fired. Witten used QB John Mateer more as a runner with designed runs. The much-maligned QB also had no turnovers last week.
After playing the now No. 1 team in the country, Ole Miss now has to go on the road to play what might be the nation’s best defense as the Sooners’ stop unit ranks top three in EPA/Play and Success Rate.
Penn State (-9) vs. Minnesota
The Nittany Lions certainly had their believers to begin the season, including yours truly. However, they lost four in a row, and that ended quickly. Nonetheless, they have shown some energy and willingness to stay with the season with two consecutive victories out of the bye week.
Both Penn State and Minnesota are 5-4 and fighting for that sixth win to get bowl-eligible. That said, how much fight does Minnesota have left this week? The Gophers played that grinder game to win the Floyd of Rosedale trophy over Iowa. The following week, they had defending National Champion Indiana beat on its own home field before losing in OT. Finally, they were tied with undefeated UCLA in the fourth quarter before giving up a 75-yard TD pass (would later give up another one as well) and losing to the Bruins.
Penn State looks like they might have turned the corner last week while Minnesota might just be running on empty here.
BEST OF THE REST
Vanderbilt (+17.5) vs. Alabama
Alabama won at LSU and jumped to No. 3 in the CFP. With this game, plus home games vs. Chattanooga and Auburn to end the regular season, the Crimson Tide look like they are a good bet to make the SEC Championship Game.
This week, the Tide travel for the second consecutive week to face Vanderbilt, who broke a five-game losing streak and won its first SEC game of the season at Mississippi State last week.
There is not a great deal of urgency for Alabama to try and run it up here, and Vanderbilt should be able to play with no pressure, having finally gotten a conference victory.
Baylor (+7.5) at BYU
At No. 10, BYU is still in the CFP rankings despite losing the “Holy War” against rival Utah last week. BYU has played four straight weeks in one-possession games, starting with the upset of Notre Dame, then losing at UCF, next winning by 7 vs. Arizona State, and finally losing at Utah after coming back from an early 14-0 deficit to take the lead, only to wear out late.
How much does BYU have left in the tank?
Meanwhile, Baylor looks a bit rejuvenated as the Bears are 2-0 under interim coach and defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman with wins at UCF and vs. Iowa State over the last two weeks. QB DJ Lagway has played his best two games of the season in that span with 548 yards passing and six TDs against 0 INTs, plus a career-high 119 on the ground and a TD last week.
The Baylor defense also ranks second in the nation with 37 total sacks and can get pressure up front.
Indiana (-8) vs. USC
The bye week was able to do only what Ohio State could do in a 24-1 run over 25 games. Beat Indiana. With so many teams in the rankings winning and all of Indiana’s opponents losing, the Hoosiers sank like a stone in the CFP rankings, dropping from No. 4 to No. 9.
Nevertheless, this is a team that looked to be running on fumes and certainly needed a bye week. Also consider that QB Josh Hoover rested with the shoulder injury, and backup QB Grant Wilson, who came on in relief to win the Minnesota game, did not practice all last week with the flu. There are also some Hoosiers starting to show up on the injury report, with RB Turbo Richard and RG Joe Brunner already out.
Everything seems to be going against Indiana right now, but that is just how Curt Cignetti likes it. He knows that the defense has carried him and OC Mike Shanahan’s offense. He hears the hot takes from the commentariat about the non-conference schedule and his team looking less than impressive over the last month or so. He probably does not pay any attention to the fact that Indiana is just 1-8 ATS this season.
This is the spot where Cig makes a statement and gets after a ranked opponent.
Boston College (+30) at Notre Dame
Notre Dame did what they had to do and beat Miami to put themselves in a very good position for the CFP, ranking No. 5. Next week, the Irish face an SMU team and have the chance to get another quality win and potentially lock themselves into a top-4 spot.
Boston College is under .500 and still has this trip to South Bend plus a season-ender in Miami to go. BC will treat this one as its bowl game. The Eagles, as a 2-10 team, only lost by 15 last year and are improved this season.
LSU (-3.5) vs. Texas
At No. 6, Texas, even with another loss, is still in solid position to make the CFP. LSU is not that fortunate after last week’s home loss to Alabama, where the Tigers made eight trips into Alabama territory and only came away with 13 points. The Tigers do still have two opportunities to play their way back in with this game vs. Texas and at Tennessee next week.
Texas dominated the fourth quarter last week at Missouri but also benefited from five replay reviews.
Steve Sarkisian is just 10-20 ATS as a road dog in his career. Lane Kiffin is paid $13 million a year to win games like last week and this week. He needs to go 1 for 2 here and will.
Arkansas (+8.5) vs. South Carolina
A month ago, Shane Beamer looked all but fired at South Carolina, but his Gamecocks have now won four games in a row and certainly have a path to the CFP with a current No. 17 ranking. That path almost exclusively depends on hosting No. 1 Georgia next week.
First things first, the Gamecocks are traveling to Arkansas. South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers will play despite his ankle not being 100 percent. More than likely, they’ll save his running ability for next week, when the Gamecocks are fighting for their playoff lives against Georgia, and then to close out the season against rival Clemson. That will certainly limit the South Carolina offense.
The Razorbacks close with South Carolina, Texas, and LSU, so they are not going bowling in Ryan Silverfield’s first season. Nevertheless, they are still playing hard and should have won at Auburn next week.
South Carolina is a little overpriced here, considering they benefitted from three TDs being nullified by penalties against Tennessee and were outgained by 100 yards against Texas A&M last week.
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