Week 11 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Matt Youmans
An intriguing story that has sort of slipped under the radar this week is Philip Rivers returning to North Carolina State as head coach. It was big news last December when Rivers returned from retirement to play quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts, an experiment that was not extremely successful. His venture into college coaching will be interesting to follow and there are reasons to be optimistic.
Rivers has endless enthusiasm for the job, similar to another former NFL superstar-turned-coach, Deion Sanders. Rivers is authentic, understands clock and game management situations, and he will know the names of his players, unlike Sanders. Initially, Sanders was a winner at Colorado with his son, Shedeur, as the quarterback. Rivers also will be coaching his son, Gunner, as a Wolfpack quarterback. The hype that surrounded Sanders has faded and he’s now facing the harsh reality of losing. Rivers, wrapping up his sixth season as a high school coach in Alabama, has what it takes to be a winner at NC State.
After my first losing Saturday of the season, I’m planning to bounce back with five college football best bets for Week 11.
North Dakota State (-6.5) at Hawaii
Each Saturday of the fall is special and it’s always better to have a late-night kickoff in Honolulu, where Hawaii coach Timmy Chang is 14-6 ATS as a home dog. The Warriors are 1-1 in that role this season, failing to cover in a 21-6 loss to UNLV in early September and covering as a 14-point underdog in a 21-10 loss to New Mexico on Oct. 17. Hawaii led the Lobos 10-7 in the fourth quarter before falling apart late, partly because of quarterback Micah Alejado losing a fumble before crossing the goal line. Alejado bounced back to pass for 323 yards in a win at Northern Illinois and 303 yards in a win at Texas-El Paso.
North Dakota State is no pushover, but this is a long trip to the islands for the Bison, who have already lost in Albuquerque, N.M., and Las Vegas in their first year in the Mountain West. The total of 38.5 indicates this will be a grinder. Hawaii’s defense has allowed only 20.7 points in six conference games, and North Dakota State’s offense produced a total of 23 points in the losses at New Mexico and UNLV. The home dog looks live, but Hawaii has found too many ways to lose to quality opponents this season. Buy the half-point or take the +7 at BetMGM.
Best Bet: Hawaii +7 (-120)
Washington (-3.5) at Michigan State
It has been ugly, but Pat Fitzgerald has the Spartans on the right track in his first season as coach. I didn’t pick many winners last week, but did have one with Michigan State, which stopped a six-game skid with a convincing 15-6 win at Michigan. Starting quarterback Alessio Milivojevic returned for the Spartans, who finished with a 298-192 advantage in total yards and forced four turnovers as two-touchdown underdogs. In a home loss to Penn State, Washington allowed 414 yards, including 174 on the ground. It’s a long trip to East Lansing for the Huskies, who don’t appear to be a highly motivated team at this point. I make this a pick-em game. This could be a letdown spot for the Spartans, but Fitzgerald will have his team ready to play and being at home usually lessens the letdown angle.
Best Bet: Michigan State +3.5
USC at Indiana (-8.5)
In coach Curt Cignetti’s first two years at Indiana, it was unwise to bet against him as Cignetti went 27-2 straight up and 20-9 ATS. The sharp money has been against him this season, with the Hoosiers sitting 8-1 SU and 1-8 ATS. Cignetti’s decision to sign TCU transfer quarterback Josh Hoover seemed questionable at the time and it is not working out well. Indiana’s offense has sputtered in the past four Big Ten games while averaging 17.8 points — including a total of 14 points in overtime victories against Michigan and Minnesota. Hoover has dealt with an arm injury since a 19-15 loss to Ohio State in October, and while he’s not listed on the injury report this week, backup Grant Wilson might be a better option anyway. The Hoosiers will be without injured running back Turbo Richard and defensive lineman Kellan Wyatt.
This line was steamed as high as 11 this week amid rumors that USC quarterback Jayden Maiava suffered an injury in practice, but the rumors were unfounded. I took +10 and will stick with the dog, although it’s not easy to trust Trojans coach Lincoln Riley on the road and Maiava is certain to struggle against a great Indiana defense. This is a good spot for USC, which had a bye after a 30-18 victory over Ohio State on Halloween. The Trojans are improving defensively and have the talent to pull this off. The Hoosiers, meanwhile, have played with fire and needed late-game magic in three recent wins.
Best Bet: USC +8.5
Louisville (-3.5) at North Carolina
Lincoln Kienholz, a former Ohio State transfer, has been outstanding in coach Jeff Brohm’s offense. Kienholz has totaled 25 touchdowns (14 passing, 11 rushing) and Louisville ranks sixth nationally in scoring offense (40.8 ppg). Bill Belichick’s defense is nowhere near elite, but the Tar Heels can score due to the emergence of quarterback Billy Edwards, who has nine touchdown passes in the past three games, including four touchdowns and 341 yards passing in a 38-35 loss to Miami on Halloween. Belichick is worth a shot as a home dog.
Best Bet: North Carolina +3.5
Texas at LSU (-4)
With a lot of help from the SEC officiating crew, the Longhorns picked up a win they needed at Missouri a week ago. Arch Manning did play one of his better games by passing for 297 yards and three touchdowns, and Texas’ injury report is improving. This is simply a must-win spot for coach Lane Kiffin and the Tigers, who were just ambushed 31-13 by Alabama. LSU outgained the Crimson Tide 457-285 as Sam Leavitt passed for 380 yards, so the score didn’t tell the whole story. It’s a night game in Baton Rouge, Kiffin needs it, and the Tigers are due to put it all together. I hate laying points, of course, and will also play this on the moneyline at -180.
Best Bet: LSU -4
Last week: 1-4-1 against the spread
Season: 34-18-6
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