Week 11 College Football Betting Splits Picks and Systems:

If you haven’t been following my DK Betting Splits work over the last couple of years, these systems, and the splits, for that matter, have become popular. In short, the numbers that DK provides in this feed summarize the percentage of the money handle and number of bets there is on each side of a wagering option for the games in most major sports. In preseason articles I published in the 2023 Football Betting Guides, I outlined different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 season for both college and pro football. I continued tracking and updating those systems in order for bettors to focus on the best ways to use the numbers. Here are the updated numbers for this weekend’s college football action.

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%), although a slight improvement at 34-36 ATS in ‘24. This angle has produced at around 46% consistently since first discovered, so I would expect an end-of-season slowdown. If you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits handle page 80% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MARSHALL, GEORGIA, JACKSONVILLE STATE, ARKANSAS STATE, TCU, BOISE STATE, PENN STATE, WASHINGTON STATE 

 

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CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 231-251 ATS (47.9%). In 2022, it was 46.5%. In 2023 it was 46.7%, maintaining incredible consistency. This year, it is actually 67-63 ATS, so I would expect this to cool down over the rest of the season. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (FL), NAVY, MINNESOTA, MARSHALL, IOWA STATE, JAMES MADISON, GEORGIA, ARMY, CLEMSON, JACKSONVILLE STATE, OREGON, PITTSBURGH, BOISE STATE, PENN STATE, FRESNO STATE, BYU, WASHINGTON STATE 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 219-241 ATS (47.6%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in 2023 and again in 2024 so far, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.

System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (FL), NAVY, MINNESOTA, LIBERTY, UCONN, MARSHALL, IOWA STATE, GEORGIA, ARMY, CLEMSON, COLORADO, JACKSONVILLE ST, W KENTUCKY, ALABAMA, OKLAHOMA, UNLV, BYU, FRESNO STATE 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When the majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 177-167 ATS (51.5%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the “smart” side of the majority handle can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): WEST VIRGINIA, SAN JOSE STATE, KENNESAW STATE, ARKANSAS STATE, MISSISSIPPI STATE 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 146-124 ATS (54.1%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4 actually, and it is off to a strong 20-13 ATS start in 2024.  It suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): FLORIDA, DUKE, ARKANSAS STATE, OKLAHOMA STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of the handle backed the team with more season wins in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone just 405-444 ATS (47.7%), even after a 92-90 ATS start to this season. More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is always the eternal equalizer. I would expect the late-season results to bring this year’s record back into normalcy.

CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 52. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 57 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 57-44 (56.4%). This remains pretty rare, as it occurred in only 12 of 406 games this season.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NAVY-USF, MISSISSIPPI STATE-TENNESSEE 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 26-15 (63.4%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NONE YET TODAY

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 76-49 (60.8%), improving this season a bit after a 24-15 start. This system also improved its win percentage in 2023, so it’s on an upward climb. Again, not a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of the number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): KENNESAW STATE-UTEP, FLORIDA STATE-NOTRE DAME, OKLAHOMA-MIZZOU, FRESNO STATE-AIR FORCE, BYU-UTAH 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #11: Since the start of the 2024 season, on games in which there has been a slight majority number of money line bets on a team (51-60%), bettors boast a respectable 26-19 SU (57.7%) record for +5.37 units of profit and an ROI of 11.9%. This has happened in only about one of every ten games on average, so it is rare.
System Matches (PLAY ALL on ML): DUKE, VANDERBILT, ALABAMA

CFB DK Betting Splits system #12: Since the start of the 2024 season, on games in which there has been a majority number of money line bets on a road underdog of +3-points or fewer, bettors are 12-8 SU (60%) for +6.04 units of profit and an ROI of 30.2%. This is an angle in which bettors tend to go away from their comfort zone and have been rewarded.
System Matches (PLAY on ML): DUKE

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