Week 11 College Football Odds, Power Ratings and Projections

Week 11 College Football

The first College Football Playoff Rankings come out on Tuesday, which is a good reminder of how much these games matter from here on out. Miami and Georgia Tech suffered major setbacks on the road last week, while Georgia tried to have one in Jacksonville. Vanderbilt’s CFP hopes were dashed, despite a valiant comeback effort against Texas. Cincinnati still has a path to win the Big 12, but getting blasted by Utah won’t help their case moving forward.

We found out a lot about some teams last week and will do the same again this week, as LSU plays for the first time without Brian Kelly, Auburn takes the field without Hugh Freeze, and QB injuries for Boise State and Nebraska have altered the outlooks for the remainder of their seasons.

We have a really good data set for each team now, which should statistically help the case for having efficient power ratings, but it is also imperative to consider whether or not the teams are improving or declining and also what the situation is within the program. Coaches on hot seats can be huge distractions. Some older QBs may get benched in favor of one of the program’s future cornerstones. Some players will be thinking about their next destinations in the transfer portal.

So, power ratings are still valuable, especially in terms of trying to get in front of the market and get some line value, but I find that my handicaps lean more towards the qualitative side once we hit November. Nevertheless, my numbers are updated for Week 11.

Week 11 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Ohio State	92.5	3.5
2	Oregon	90.5	3.5
3	Indiana	90	2.5
4	Alabama	88	3.5
5	Notre Dame	87	3
6	Georgia	86	3
7	Texas A&M	85.5	2
8	Utah	85.5	3
9	Vanderbilt	84	1.5
10	Texas	83.5	3.5
11	Miami (Florida)	83	2
12	Texas Tech	83	3
13	Oklahoma	82	3
14	Mississippi	81.5	3
15	USC	81	3
16	Michigan	79.5	3
17	Tennessee	79	3.5
18	Florida	78.5	2
19	Missouri	77.5	3.5
20	Penn State	77.5	3.5
21	Iowa	77	3
22	Auburn	76.5	2
23	LSU	76.5	3.5
24	Washington	76.5	3.5
25	Cincinnati	75.5	1.5
26	Georgia Tech	75.5	2
27	Illinois	75.5	2
28	Arizona State	75	2
29	BYU	75	2
30	Louisville	75	3.5
31	Florida State	74.5	2
32	Clemson	74	2.5
33	Duke	74	3.5
34	TCU	74	3
35	Mississippi State	73	2
36	Arizona	72.5	2
37	Iowa State	72	2
38	South Florida	72	1.5
39	Arkansas	71.5	2
40	Pittsburgh	71.5	2
41	SMU	71.5	3.5
42	Houston	70.5	2
43	Kansas State	70.5	3.5
44	Memphis	70.5	2.5
45	North Carolina State	70	2
46	South Carolina	70	2.5
47	Kentucky	69.5	2
48	Baylor	69	2
49	Nebraska	69	2
50	North Texas	68.5	2
51	Virginia	68.5	2
52	East Carolina	67.5	2
53	Northwestern	67.5	1.5
54	James Madison	67	3
55	San Diego State	67	2
56	Kansas	66.5	2.5
57	Boise State	66	3.5
58	Minnesota	66	2
59	UCLA	66	2
60	Maryland	65.5	2
61	Rutgers	65.5	2
62	UCF	65.5	2
63	Wake Forest	65	2
64	Navy	64.5	2
65	Tulane	64.5	2.5
66	Michigan State	64	2
67	Purdue	63.5	1
68	Virginia Tech	63.5	2
69	Wisconsin	63	2
70	West Virginia	62	2
71	Toledo	61	3
72	Colorado	60.5	2
73	Hawai’i	60.5	2
74	Old Dominion	60.5	1.5
75	Connecticut	60	2.5
76	New Mexico	60	2
77	Southern Mississippi	60	2
78	UNLV	60	2.5
79	North Carolina	59.5	2
80	Temple	59.5	2
81	California	59	2
82	San Jose State	59	2.5
83	Utah State	59	2
84	Army	58.5	2.5
85	Miami (Ohio)	58	2.5
86	UTSA	58	3.5
87	Fresno State	57	2
88	Air Force	56.5	2
89	Louisiana Tech	56.5	2
90	Ohio	56.5	3.5
91	Texas State	56.5	2
92	Washington State	56	3
93	Stanford	55.5	1
94	Kennesaw State	55	1.5
95	Troy	55	3
96	Wyoming	55	2
97	Syracuse	54.5	2.5
98	Boston College	54	2
99	Florida Atlantic	53.5	2
100	South Alabama	53.5	2
101	Western Michigan	53.5	2
102	Louisiana-Lafayette	53	2
103	Oregon State	52.5	3.5
104	Western Kentucky	52	2.5
105	Arkansas State	51.5	2
106	Central Michigan	51.5	2
107	Tulsa	51.5	1
108	Marshall	51	3
109	UAB	51	2.5
110	Coastal Carolina	50.5	2
111	Jacksonville State	50.5	3.5
112	Delaware	50	3
113	Liberty	50	3
114	Rice	50	3
115	Appalachian State	49.5	2
116	Colorado State	49.5	2
117	Missouri State	49	2
118	Georgia Southern	48	3.5
119	UTEP	47.5	2
120	Nevada	47	1
121	Northern Illinois	47	1
122	Buffalo	46.5	2
123	Florida International	46.5	2
124	Bowling Green	46	2
125	Eastern Michigan	46	2
126	Middle Tennessee	45.5	2
127	Oklahoma State	45	2
128	Georgia State	44.5	1
129	Louisiana-Monroe	44	2
130	New Mexico State	44	2.5
131	Akron	42.5	2
132	Kent State	42	1
133	Sam Houston State	42	0.5
134	Ball State	41.5	2.5
135	Charlotte	39	1
136	Massachusetts	33.5	1

Here are my Week 11 power ratings adjustments:

Up: Middle Tennessee +1.5, Missouri State +2, Coastal Carolina +4, North Carolina +1.5, Louisiana Tech +2, Louisiana +1.5, East Carolina +2, Oklahoma +1.5, Duke +1, Florida State +3.5, NC State +3, Illinois +3, Utah +2.5, Kansas State +1.5, Arkansas State +1, West Virginia +4, Arkansas +1.5, North Texas +2, Liberty +3, New Mexico State +1.5, Florida +1.5, San Jose State +2, UTEP +1.5, San Diego State +3.5 

Down: Jacksonville State -1.5, FIU -3, Marshall -2, Tulane -2.5, Syracuse -4, South Alabama -1.5, Tennessee -1.5, Boston College -1.5, Wake Forest -1.5, Georgia Tech -1.5, Bowling Green -2, Rutgers -3, Minnesota -3.5, Boise State -4.5 (Madsen), Cincinnati -1.5, Pitt -1.5, Troy -1, Houston -2.5, Oklahoma State -3, Nebraska -3.5 (Raiola), Georgia -1.5, Kennesaw State -1.5, South Carolina -1.5, Cal -2.5, Colorado -6, Georgia Southern -2.5, Georgia State -2.5, Iowa State -3

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Coastal Carolina +4: Not sure what has happened in Conway, but the Chanticleers have won three in a row and are one win away from bowl eligibility. I fully expected Tim Beck to get fired this season. That will not be the case.

West Virginia +4: Scotty Fox has injected some life into the Mountaineers offense. What a strong win against a very solid Houston team.

Florida State +3.5: I haven’t really known how to rate this team throughout the season, but it appears I had to make an adjustment to get closer to the market.

San Diego State +3.5: The Aztecs totally shut down Wyoming in a game where I liked the Cowboys. Credit where credit is due.

Colorado -6: This has to be it for Deion Sanders, right? The Buffaloes are awful, his kids are no longer there, and he blocked his players from interviews with the media after the last game. Just an all-around disaster right now.

Boise State -4.5: We’ll see if this is a big enough adjustment, but QB Maddux Madsen is done for a while, if not the year.

Syracuse -4: Rickie Collins posted a 6/8 TD/INT ratio in relief of injured Steve Angeli and that prompted head coach Fran Brown to give Joseph Filardi a look. He was 4-of-18 for 39 yards. Not great.

Nebraska -3.5: Dylan Raiola is also out for the year after breaking his fibula.

Minnesota -3.5: The Gophers beat the Spartans, but got very badly outgained in that one. The market has been against Minnesota several weeks in a row, so it was my turn to move them down.

My Week 11 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
11/4	Miami (OH)	Ohio	-2
	UMass	Akron	-11
11/5	Kent State	Ball State	-2
	Northern Illinois	Toledo	-17
11/6	UTSA	South Florida	-15.5
	Georgia Southern	App State	-3.5
11/7	Houston	UCF	+3
	Tulane	Memphis	-8.5
	Northwestern	USC	-16.5
11/8	Charlotte	East Carolina	-30.5
	Tulsa	Florida Atlantic	-4
	Florida	Kentucky	+7
	Temple	Army	-1.5
	James Madison	Marshall	+13
	Georgia State	Coastal Carolina	-8
	Colorado	West Virginia	-3.5
	SMU	Boston College	+15.5
	Florida State	Clemson	-2
	Cal	Louisville	-19.5
	Syracuse	Miami (FL)	-30.5
	Stanford	North Carolina	-6
	Indiana	Penn State	+9
	Ohio State	Purdue	+28
	Maryland	Rutgers	-2
	Wake Forest	Virginia	-5.5
	Bowling Green	Eastern Michigan	-2
	Georgia	Mississippi State	+11
	Missouri State	Liberty	-4
	UAB	Rice	-2
	Iowa State	TCU	-5
	Texas A&M	Missouri	+4.5
	BYU	Texas Tech	-11
	Auburn	Vanderbilt	-9
	LSU	Alabama	-15
	Texas State	Louisiana	+1.5
	Oregon	Iowa	+10.5
	Washington	Wisconsin	+11.5
	UNLV	Colorado State	+8.5
	Kansas	Arizona	-8
	Louisiana Tech	Delaware	+3.5
	FIU	Middle Tennessee	-1
	Jacksonville State	UTEP	+1
	Air Force	San Jose State	-5
	Nebraska	UCLA	+1
	Duke	UConn	+11.5
	Southern Miss	Arkansas State	+6.5
	Kennesaw State	New Mexico State	+8.5
	Nevada	Utah State	-14
	Navy	Notre Dame	-25.5
	Sam Houston	Oregon State	-14
	San Diego State	Hawaii	+4.5

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

Florida -3.5 (-7) vs. Kentucky: Feels like a cheap number here when Kentucky is stepping back up in talent level. They had all of 240 yards in the win over Auburn.

Temple +7 (+1) vs. Army: I really don’t think this Army team is very good and the Owls have been impressive under KC Keeler, who has seen the option a lot in his coaching tenure.

Georgia -7.5 (-11) vs. Mississippi State: The Bulldogs have been a plucky underdog this season, but Georgia will be the best opponent they’ve played since losing by 22 to Texas A&M.

Oregon -6 (-10.5) vs. Iowa: Perhaps I haven’t given Mark Gronowski enough love, as Iowa continues to have a solid defense, but I still think the offense is poor.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.