Week 11 College Football Power Ratings:
We’re officially into the month of November, which means that the season ends this month for teams that don’t reach six wins. Teams in those situations or those that are falling well short of expectations will start looking at young players and maybe make some chances at significant positions. That could also mean more head coach firings.
It also means that everything gets magnified in terms of the College Football Playoff chase. The pressure ramps up for teams that have limited margin for error. And we’ve certainly seen some substantial upsets this season or have seen those CFP-caliber teams struggle to get through games against inferior competition.
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Injuries and weather become bigger factors as the weeks go by. Another factor now is college basketball season. Early-season markets tend to be pretty soft and sharp bettors will look to attack them. Recreational bettors will also be interested in the start of a new season. Sometimes we can take things for granted in sports we’ve been following or miss some things when being pulled in multiple directions.
Be sure to manage your time wisely and properly. If that means moving on from college football to focus on other sports, there’s nothing wrong with that. I won’t be doing that, despite covering college basketball six days a week for us here at VSiN, but that’s part of my job. For others, who have jobs and are trying to handicap a lot of sports, do what you need to do to keep your head above water.
Here are my Week 11 College Football Power Ratings
Rank | Team | PR | HFA |
1 | Georgia | 91.5 | 3 |
2 | Ohio State | 90 | 3.5 |
3 | Oregon | 90 | 3.5 |
4 | Texas | 89 | 3.5 |
5 | Clemson | 84.5 | 3 |
6 | Mississippi | 84.5 | 3.5 |
7 | Alabama | 83.5 | 3.5 |
8 | Notre Dame | 83.5 | 3.5 |
9 | Indiana | 83 | 1.5 |
10 | Miami (Florida) | 83 | 2 |
11 | Penn State | 83 | 3.5 |
12 | Tennessee | 82.5 | 3.5 |
13 | LSU | 82 | 3.5 |
14 | SMU | 81 | 3.5 |
15 | Texas A&M | 79 | 3 |
16 | Iowa State | 78.5 | 2 |
17 | Boise State | 77.5 | 2.5 |
18 | BYU | 76.5 | 2 |
19 | Louisville | 76.5 | 3.5 |
20 | Iowa | 76 | 2.5 |
21 | South Carolina | 76 | 2.5 |
22 | Washington | 76 | 2 |
23 | Colorado | 75.5 | 2 |
24 | Kansas State | 75.5 | 3.5 |
25 | USC | 74.5 | 2 |
26 | Tulane | 74 | 2 |
27 | Army | 73.5 | 2 |
28 | Baylor | 73.5 | 2 |
29 | Vanderbilt | 73.5 | 1 |
30 | Wisconsin | 73.5 | 2 |
31 | Arizona State | 73 | 2 |
32 | Auburn | 72.5 | 2 |
33 | California | 72.5 | 2 |
34 | Florida | 72.5 | 2 |
35 | Missouri | 72.5 | 2 |
36 | Virginia Tech | 72.5 | 2 |
37 | Kansas | 72 | 2 |
38 | Kentucky | 72 | 2.5 |
39 | Cincinnati | 71.5 | 2 |
40 | Minnesota | 71.5 | 2 |
41 | UNLV | 71.5 | 2 |
42 | Pittsburgh | 71 | 2 |
43 | TCU | 71 | 2.5 |
44 | Georgia Tech | 70.5 | 1 |
45 | Michigan | 70.5 | 3.5 |
46 | Texas Tech | 70.5 | 2.5 |
47 | UCF | 70.5 | 3 |
48 | Washington State | 70 | 2.5 |
49 | Arkansas | 69.5 | 2 |
50 | Michigan State | 69.5 | 2.5 |
51 | Oklahoma | 69.5 | 3.5 |
52 | West Virginia | 69.5 | 3 |
53 | North Carolina | 68.5 | 2.5 |
54 | Virginia | 68 | 2 |
55 | Navy | 67 | 2 |
56 | Syracuse | 67 | 2.5 |
57 | Nebraska | 66.5 | 2 |
58 | Duke | 66 | 3 |
59 | Illinois | 66 | 2 |
60 | James Madison | 65.5 | 3.5 |
61 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 65.5 | 3 |
62 | Maryland | 65.5 | 2 |
63 | Texas State | 65.5 | 2 |
64 | UCLA | 65.5 | 2 |
65 | Boston College | 65 | 1.5 |
66 | Oklahoma State | 65 | 3.5 |
67 | Utah | 65 | 3.5 |
68 | Arizona | 64.5 | 2 |
69 | Memphis | 64.5 | 2 |
70 | North Carolina State | 64.5 | 3.5 |
71 | Houston | 64 | 2 |
72 | North Texas | 62.5 | 2 |
73 | Rutgers | 62.5 | 2 |
74 | Florida State | 61.5 | 2 |
75 | Mississippi State | 61.5 | 2 |
76 | Old Dominion | 61.5 | 2 |
77 | Wake Forest | 60.5 | 2.5 |
78 | Colorado State | 60 | 1 |
79 | Jacksonville State | 60 | 2.5 |
80 | Bowling Green | 59.5 | 2 |
81 | Georgia Southern | 59.5 | 2 |
82 | Marshall | 59.5 | 2 |
83 | Western Kentucky | 59.5 | 2.5 |
84 | Northwestern | 59 | 1.5 |
85 | South Alabama | 59 | 2.5 |
86 | South Florida | 58.5 | 2 |
87 | Connecticut | 57.5 | 2 |
88 | Stanford | 57.5 | 1 |
89 | Toledo | 57.5 | 2.5 |
90 | Fresno State | 57 | 2.5 |
91 | UTSA | 57 | 3.5 |
92 | Appalachian State | 56.5 | 2.5 |
93 | Northern Illinois | 56.5 | 1.5 |
94 | Purdue | 56.5 | 2 |
95 | Arkansas State | 56 | 2 |
96 | Miami (Ohio) | 56 | 3 |
97 | Oregon State | 56 | 3.5 |
98 | Sam Houston State | 55.5 | 2 |
99 | East Carolina | 55 | 2 |
100 | New Mexico | 55 | 1 |
101 | Ohio | 55 | 2 |
102 | Liberty | 54.5 | 3 |
103 | Rice | 54.5 | 2 |
104 | Troy | 54.5 | 2.5 |
105 | Charlotte | 54 | 1 |
106 | Coastal Carolina | 54 | 2.5 |
107 | Nevada | 54 | 1.5 |
108 | San Jose State | 53.5 | 2 |
109 | Western Michigan | 53.5 | 2 |
110 | Louisiana-Monroe | 53 | 2 |
111 | Utah State | 53 | 2 |
112 | Georgia State | 52 | 2 |
113 | San Diego State | 52 | 2 |
114 | Florida Atlantic | 51.5 | 2 |
115 | Buffalo | 50.5 | 1 |
116 | Eastern Michigan | 50.5 | 2 |
117 | Hawai’i | 50 | 2 |
118 | Louisiana Tech | 49.5 | 2 |
119 | Wyoming | 49.5 | 2.5 |
120 | Florida International | 49 | 1 |
121 | Temple | 48 | 2 |
122 | Akron | 47.5 | 1 |
123 | Air Force | 47 | 2.5 |
124 | Central Michigan | 47 | 2 |
125 | Massachusetts | 46.5 | 1 |
126 | UAB | 46.5 | 2.5 |
127 | Southern Mississippi | 46 | 2 |
128 | Tulsa | 44.5 | 1 |
129 | Ball State | 42 | 2 |
130 | Middle Tennessee | 41.5 | 2 |
131 | UTEP | 41.5 | 2 |
132 | Kennesaw State | 38.5 | 2 |
133 | Kent State | 37.5 | 2 |
134 | New Mexico State | 37.5 | 2.5 |
Here are this week’s Power Ratings adjustments:
Up: Louisiana Tech +3, Kennesaw State +3, UConn +1, San Diego State +2, Louisville +3, Vanderbilt +2.5, Louisiana Monroe +2, Purdue +1, Minnesota +2, Indiana +1.5, Middle Tennessee +1, Texas Tech +2, Arizona State +4, Rice +3, Houston +3, UCLA +3, Wyoming +2.5, Colorado State +3, Tulane +2, UTSA +3, Troy +3, Kansas +1.5, South Florida +3, UAB +2.5, Mississippi +3, North Texas +2
Down: Sam Houston State -2, Jacksonville State -1.5, Western Kentucky -2, Virginia Tech -1, Clemson -4, Arizona -4, Auburn -2.5, Arkansas -2, Marshall -1.5, Northwestern -2, Illinois -2, Memphis -2, UTEP -1, Iowa State -2, Oklahoma State -2.5, Navy -3, Kansas State -2, Wisconsin -2, Nebraska -6, Michigan -2.5, Texas A&M -2.5, Fresno State -3, Florida -3, Michigan State -3, Coastal Carolina -3, Missouri -2.5, Oregon State -3, Georgia -1.5
Some notes on the biggest movers:
Arizona State +4: Sam Leavitt is back and Arizona State had a big offensive showing last week.
Rice +3: What a win over Navy. And they did so the week they fired Mike Bloomgren. Another team with a dead cat bounce off a coaching change.
UCLA +3: UCLA is improving. Road wins over Rutgers and Nebraska. Deshaun Foster is doing some impressive work.
South Florida +3: I guess I was out on USF with Byrum Brown out, but they’re playing better and the market had a little more respect for them than I did.
Louisiana Tech +3: Another bump for the Bulldogs. Their defense has been really good this season. The offense hasn’t been, but they deserved some credit.
UTSA +3: It took some time, but Jeff Traylor has this offense humming under Owen McCown. The huge collapse against Tulsa was stunning, but they’ve played 11 really good quarters in the last three games.
Nebraska -6: This team is going in reverse and doing so rapidly.
Arizona -4: I don’t think Brent Brennan is a good head coach. This is a better roster than what we’re seeing, but we’re seeing a pretty bad team right now.
Clemson -4: I’ve been high on Clemson for a few weeks. The Louisville loss was a reality check.
Here are my Week 11 College Football Lines
Date | Away Team | Home Team | Line |
11/5 | Bowling Green | Central Michigan | +10.5 |
Miami (OH) | Ball State | +12 | |
11/6 | Ohio | Kent State | +15.5 |
Northern Illinois | Western Michigan | +1 | |
11/7 | FAU | East Carolina | -5.5 |
App State | Coastal Carolina | PK | |
11/8 | Cal | Wake Forest | +9.5 |
Rice | Memphis | -12 | |
Iowa | UCLA | +8.5 | |
New Mexico | San Diego State | +1 | |
11/9 | Virginia | Pitt | -5 |
Florida | Texas | -20 | |
West Virginia | Cincinnati | -4 | |
Iowa State | Kansas | +4.5 | |
Miami (FL) | Georgia Tech | +11.5 | |
Navy | South Florida | +6.5 | |
Duke | NC State | -2 | |
Syracuse | Boston College | +0.5 | |
Georgia State | James Madison | -17 | |
Purdue | Ohio State | -37 | |
Liberty | Middle Tennessee | +11 | |
BYU | Utah | +8 | |
Fresno State | Air Force | +7.5 | |
Nevada | Boise State | -26 | |
UCF | Arizona State | -4.5 | |
Colorado | Texas Tech | +2.5 | |
UConn | UAB | +8.5 | |
Marshall | Southern Miss | +11.5 | |
Oklahoma | Missouri | -5 | |
Georgia | Mississippi | +3.5 | |
Temple | Tulane | -28 | |
South Carolina | Vanderbilt | +1.5 | |
Texas State (w/ McCloud) | UL Monroe | +10.5 | |
Army (w/ Daily) | North Texas | +9 | |
Oklahoma State | TCU | -8.5 | |
San Jose State | Oregon State | -6 | |
Utah State | Washington State | -19.5 | |
Arkansas State | Louisiana | -12.5 | |
Minnesota | Rutgers | +7 | |
Maryland | Oregon | -28 | |
Michigan | Indiana | -14 | |
Washington | Penn State | -10.5 | |
Kennesaw State | UTEP | -5 | |
Jacksonville State | LA Tech | +8.5 | |
Mississippi State | Tennessee | -24.5 | |
Western Kentucky | New Mexico State | +19.5 | |
Florida State | Notre Dame | -25.5 | |
Clemson | Virginia Tech | +10 | |
Alabama | LSU | -2 | |
UNLV | Hawaii | +19.5 |
Some games to consider based on the differences between the betting market and my lines
Navy -3 (-6.5) at South Florida: Adjustments to both, but I still have some value on Navy here.
BYU -4.5 (-8) at Utah: Holy War! Utah has just been so underwhelming this season. Can’t help but feel like this could be it for Kyle Whittingham, much like what we’ve seen with some other aging head coaches that are over it with the NIL era. The Utes just aren’t the same team and I wonder if maybe there’s some sort of rift somewhere.
Missouri -2.5 (-5) vs. Oklahoma: The Sooners are playing a bit better with Jackson Arnold back at the helm, but I’m not ready to give up on Missouri, even though the market mostly has.
Texas State -7 (-10.5) at UL Monroe: This one depends on the health of Jordan McCloud, who left with an ankle injury last week.
Clemson -6.5 (-10) at Virginia Tech: You wonder about Clemson’s mindset going into this one, but Kyron Drones and Bhayshul Tuten are both banged up for Virginia Tech.
LSU +2 (-2) vs. Alabama: Both off a bye. Huge game. Both teams have been a little tough to gauge to say the least. LSU basically favored based on HFA for me, but I have to look more at this one.
I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.