Week 11 College Football Power Ratings and Predictions

Week 11 College Football Power Ratings:

We’re officially into the month of November, which means that the season ends this month for teams that don’t reach six wins. Teams in those situations or those that are falling well short of expectations will start looking at young players and maybe make some chances at significant positions. That could also mean more head coach firings. 

It also means that everything gets magnified in terms of the College Football Playoff chase. The pressure ramps up for teams that have limited margin for error. And we’ve certainly seen some substantial upsets this season or have seen those CFP-caliber teams struggle to get through games against inferior competition.

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Injuries and weather become bigger factors as the weeks go by. Another factor now is college basketball season. Early-season markets tend to be pretty soft and sharp bettors will look to attack them. Recreational bettors will also be interested in the start of a new season. Sometimes we can take things for granted in sports we’ve been following or miss some things when being pulled in multiple directions.

Be sure to manage your time wisely and properly. If that means moving on from college football to focus on other sports, there’s nothing wrong with that. I won’t be doing that, despite covering college basketball six days a week for us here at VSiN, but that’s part of my job. For others, who have jobs and are trying to handicap a lot of sports, do what you need to do to keep your head above water.

Here are my Week 11 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Georgia	91.5	3
2	Ohio State	90	3.5
3	Oregon	90	3.5
4	Texas	89	3.5
5	Clemson	84.5	3
6	Mississippi	84.5	3.5
7	Alabama	83.5	3.5
8	Notre Dame	83.5	3.5
9	Indiana	83	1.5
10	Miami (Florida)	83	2
11	Penn State	83	3.5
12	Tennessee	82.5	3.5
13	LSU	82	3.5
14	SMU	81	3.5
15	Texas A&M	79	3
16	Iowa State	78.5	2
17	Boise State	77.5	2.5
18	BYU	76.5	2
19	Louisville	76.5	3.5
20	Iowa	76	2.5
21	South Carolina	76	2.5
22	Washington	76	2
23	Colorado	75.5	2
24	Kansas State	75.5	3.5
25	USC	74.5	2
26	Tulane	74	2
27	Army	73.5	2
28	Baylor	73.5	2
29	Vanderbilt	73.5	1
30	Wisconsin	73.5	2
31	Arizona State	73	2
32	Auburn	72.5	2
33	California	72.5	2
34	Florida	72.5	2
35	Missouri	72.5	2
36	Virginia Tech	72.5	2
37	Kansas	72	2
38	Kentucky	72	2.5
39	Cincinnati	71.5	2
40	Minnesota	71.5	2
41	UNLV	71.5	2
42	Pittsburgh	71	2
43	TCU	71	2.5
44	Georgia Tech	70.5	1
45	Michigan	70.5	3.5
46	Texas Tech	70.5	2.5
47	UCF	70.5	3
48	Washington State	70	2.5
49	Arkansas	69.5	2
50	Michigan State	69.5	2.5
51	Oklahoma	69.5	3.5
52	West Virginia	69.5	3
53	North Carolina	68.5	2.5
54	Virginia	68	2
55	Navy	67	2
56	Syracuse	67	2.5
57	Nebraska	66.5	2
58	Duke	66	3
59	Illinois	66	2
60	James Madison	65.5	3.5
61	Louisiana-Lafayette	65.5	3
62	Maryland	65.5	2
63	Texas State	65.5	2
64	UCLA	65.5	2
65	Boston College	65	1.5
66	Oklahoma State	65	3.5
67	Utah	65	3.5
68	Arizona	64.5	2
69	Memphis	64.5	2
70	North Carolina State	64.5	3.5
71	Houston	64	2
72	North Texas	62.5	2
73	Rutgers	62.5	2
74	Florida State	61.5	2
75	Mississippi State	61.5	2
76	Old Dominion	61.5	2
77	Wake Forest	60.5	2.5
78	Colorado State	60	1
79	Jacksonville State	60	2.5
80	Bowling Green	59.5	2
81	Georgia Southern	59.5	2
82	Marshall	59.5	2
83	Western Kentucky	59.5	2.5
84	Northwestern	59	1.5
85	South Alabama	59	2.5
86	South Florida	58.5	2
87	Connecticut	57.5	2
88	Stanford	57.5	1
89	Toledo	57.5	2.5
90	Fresno State	57	2.5
91	UTSA	57	3.5
92	Appalachian State	56.5	2.5
93	Northern Illinois	56.5	1.5
94	Purdue	56.5	2
95	Arkansas State	56	2
96	Miami (Ohio)	56	3
97	Oregon State	56	3.5
98	Sam Houston State	55.5	2
99	East Carolina	55	2
100	New Mexico	55	1
101	Ohio	55	2
102	Liberty	54.5	3
103	Rice	54.5	2
104	Troy	54.5	2.5
105	Charlotte	54	1
106	Coastal Carolina	54	2.5
107	Nevada	54	1.5
108	San Jose State	53.5	2
109	Western Michigan	53.5	2
110	Louisiana-Monroe	53	2
111	Utah State	53	2
112	Georgia State	52	2
113	San Diego State	52	2
114	Florida Atlantic	51.5	2
115	Buffalo	50.5	1
116	Eastern Michigan	50.5	2
117	Hawai’i	50	2
118	Louisiana Tech	49.5	2
119	Wyoming	49.5	2.5
120	Florida International	49	1
121	Temple	48	2
122	Akron	47.5	1
123	Air Force	47	2.5
124	Central Michigan	47	2
125	Massachusetts	46.5	1
126	UAB	46.5	2.5
127	Southern Mississippi	46	2
128	Tulsa	44.5	1
129	Ball State	42	2
130	Middle Tennessee	41.5	2
131	UTEP	41.5	2
132	Kennesaw State	38.5	2
133	Kent State	37.5	2
134	New Mexico State	37.5	2.5

Here are this week’s Power Ratings adjustments:

Up: Louisiana Tech +3, Kennesaw State +3, UConn +1, San Diego State +2, Louisville +3, Vanderbilt +2.5, Louisiana Monroe +2, Purdue +1, Minnesota +2, Indiana +1.5, Middle Tennessee +1, Texas Tech +2, Arizona State +4, Rice +3, Houston +3, UCLA +3, Wyoming +2.5, Colorado State +3, Tulane +2, UTSA +3, Troy +3, Kansas +1.5, South Florida +3, UAB +2.5, Mississippi +3, North Texas +2

Down: Sam Houston State -2, Jacksonville State -1.5, Western Kentucky -2, Virginia Tech -1, Clemson -4, Arizona -4, Auburn -2.5, Arkansas -2, Marshall -1.5, Northwestern -2, Illinois -2, Memphis -2, UTEP -1, Iowa State -2, Oklahoma State -2.5, Navy -3, Kansas State -2, Wisconsin -2, Nebraska -6, Michigan -2.5, Texas A&M -2.5, Fresno State -3, Florida -3, Michigan State -3, Coastal Carolina -3, Missouri -2.5, Oregon State -3, Georgia -1.5

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Arizona State +4: Sam Leavitt is back and Arizona State had a big offensive showing last week.

Rice +3: What a win over Navy. And they did so the week they fired Mike Bloomgren. Another team with a dead cat bounce off a coaching change.

UCLA +3: UCLA is improving. Road wins over Rutgers and Nebraska. Deshaun Foster is doing some impressive work.

South Florida +3: I guess I was out on USF with Byrum Brown out, but they’re playing better and the market had a little more respect for them than I did.

Louisiana Tech +3: Another bump for the Bulldogs. Their defense has been really good this season. The offense hasn’t been, but they deserved some credit.

UTSA +3: It took some time, but Jeff Traylor has this offense humming under Owen McCown. The huge collapse against Tulsa was stunning, but they’ve played 11 really good quarters in the last three games.

Nebraska -6: This team is going in reverse and doing so rapidly.

Arizona -4: I don’t think Brent Brennan is a good head coach. This is a better roster than what we’re seeing, but we’re seeing a pretty bad team right now.

Clemson -4: I’ve been high on Clemson for a few weeks. The Louisville loss was a reality check.

Here are my Week 11 College Football Lines

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
11/5	Bowling Green	Central Michigan	+10.5
	Miami (OH)	Ball State	+12
11/6	Ohio	Kent State	+15.5
	Northern Illinois	Western Michigan	+1
11/7	FAU	East Carolina	-5.5
	App State	Coastal Carolina	PK
11/8	Cal	Wake Forest	+9.5
	Rice	Memphis	-12
	Iowa	UCLA	+8.5
	New Mexico	San Diego State	+1
11/9	Virginia	Pitt	-5
	Florida	Texas	-20
	West Virginia	Cincinnati	-4
	Iowa State	Kansas	+4.5
	Miami (FL)	Georgia Tech	+11.5
	Navy	South Florida	+6.5
	Duke	NC State	-2
	Syracuse	Boston College	+0.5
	Georgia State	James Madison	-17
	Purdue	Ohio State	-37
	Liberty	Middle Tennessee	+11
	BYU	Utah	+8
	Fresno State	Air Force	+7.5
	Nevada	Boise State	-26
	UCF	Arizona State	-4.5
	Colorado	Texas Tech	+2.5
	UConn	UAB	+8.5
	Marshall	Southern Miss	+11.5
	Oklahoma	Missouri	-5
	Georgia	Mississippi	+3.5
	Temple	Tulane	-28
	South Carolina	Vanderbilt	+1.5
	Texas State (w/ McCloud)	UL Monroe	+10.5
	Army (w/ Daily)	North Texas	+9
	Oklahoma State	TCU	-8.5
	San Jose State	Oregon State	-6
	Utah State	Washington State	-19.5
	Arkansas State	Louisiana	-12.5
	Minnesota	Rutgers	+7
	Maryland	Oregon	-28
	Michigan	Indiana	-14
	Washington	Penn State	-10.5
	Kennesaw State	UTEP	-5
	Jacksonville State	LA Tech	+8.5
	Mississippi State	Tennessee	-24.5
	Western Kentucky	New Mexico State	+19.5
	Florida State	Notre Dame	-25.5
	Clemson	Virginia Tech	+10
	Alabama	LSU	-2
	UNLV	Hawaii	+19.5

Some games to consider based on the differences between the betting market and my lines

Navy -3 (-6.5) at South Florida: Adjustments to both, but I still have some value on Navy here.

BYU -4.5 (-8) at Utah: Holy War! Utah has just been so underwhelming this season. Can’t help but feel like this could be it for Kyle Whittingham, much like what we’ve seen with some other aging head coaches that are over it with the NIL era. The Utes just aren’t the same team and I wonder if maybe there’s some sort of rift somewhere.

Missouri -2.5 (-5) vs. Oklahoma: The Sooners are playing a bit better with Jackson Arnold back at the helm, but I’m not ready to give up on Missouri, even though the market mostly has.

Texas State -7 (-10.5) at UL Monroe: This one depends on the health of Jordan McCloud, who left with an ankle injury last week.

Clemson -6.5 (-10) at Virginia Tech: You wonder about Clemson’s mindset going into this one, but Kyron Drones and Bhayshul Tuten are both banged up for Virginia Tech.
LSU +2 (-2) vs. Alabama: Both off a bye. Huge game. Both teams have been a little tough to gauge to say the least. LSU basically favored based on HFA for me, but I have to look more at this one.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.