Week 11 College Football Power Ratings and Projections for Every Game

Week 11 College Football Power Ratings

The college football regular season is already winding down for some teams and really just ramping up for others. Teams who are going to fall short of goals or expectations are going to be tough to bet on because the players are endlessly thinking about the transfer portal and new opportunities. The teams that are hitting a high note are tough to bet on because the market is still very reactionary based on the results.

Like I’ve been saying the last few weeks, the inconsistency across the nation has kept me from relying on my power ratings as much as I did in past seasons. It’s still great to have a guide and know where things are at the start of the week. Furthermore, it’s good to have something that keeps you grounded so that you don’t overvalue or undervalue what a team did. But, it is still a weird year all things considered.

We will also see some interesting personnel decisions, especially with teams who might want to try and keep a prized recruit around. Playing time and money are the two factors that those kids are most interested in and it does behoove the schools to find out if the investment is going to be worth it. In that respect, coaches may make a QB change or maybe try different backs and receivers. That won’t be factored into the line unless we know in advance, so that’s just another thing to keep in mind.

Week 11 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Georgia	95	2.5
2	Alabama	89	3.5
3	Notre Dame	89	3.5
4	Miami (Florida)	87.5	3
5	LSU	86.5	3
6	Texas	86	3.5
7	Mississippi	85	3.5
8	Tennessee	83	2.5
9	Indiana	82.5	3.5
10	Wake Forest	82	2
11	Oklahoma	81	3
12	South Carolina	81	2.5
13	UCLA	80.5	1.5
14	Ohio State	80	3.5
15	Utah	80	2.5
16	Florida	79.5	2
17	Oregon	79.5	3.5
18	SMU	79.5	3.5
19	Missouri	78.5	3.5
20	Houston	78	2
21	Oklahoma State	78	2
22	BYU	77.5	3.5
23	Texas Tech	77.5	3.5
24	USC	77.5	3
25	Duke	76.5	2.5
26	Iowa	76.5	3.5
27	Texas A&M	76.5	2
28	Auburn	75.5	2
29	Baylor	75.5	1.5
30	Boise State	75.5	3.5
31	Kentucky	75.5	2
32	Louisville	75.5	3.5
33	Northwestern	75	1.5
34	Wisconsin	75	2
35	Penn State	74	2.5
36	Michigan	73.5	2.5
37	TCU	73.5	2.5
38	Virginia Tech	73.5	2
39	Arizona	73	3
40	Clemson	72	2.5
41	Florida State	72	2.5
42	Nebraska	71.5	2
43	Cincinnati	71	1.5
44	New Mexico	71	2
45	North Carolina	71	2
46	Washington	71	3.5
47	Illinois	70.5	2.5
48	Minnesota	70	2.5
49	Syracuse	70	2.5
50	Texas State	69	2
51	Arkansas	68.5	1.5
52	Liberty	68.5	2.5
53	Mississippi State	68.5	2
54	North Texas	68.5	2.5
55	Kansas	68	2.5
56	Virginia	68	2
57	Iowa State	67.5	2.5
58	Arizona State	67	2
59	Vanderbilt	67	2.5
60	Pittsburgh	66.5	2.5
61	UCF	66.5	2
62	Boston College	66	2
63	Louisiana Tech	66	2
64	North Carolina State	66	2.5
65	Oregon State	66	3.5
66	West Virginia	66	2
67	Memphis	65.5	2.5
68	Kansas State	65	3
69	Michigan State	64.5	1.5
70	North Dakota State	64	3.5
71	James Madison	63.5	3.5
72	Colorado	63	2.5
73	Tulsa	63	1
74	UTSA	62	3.5
75	California	61.5	2
76	Florida Atlantic	61.5	1.5
77	Fresno State	61.5	2
78	Maryland	61.5	2
79	Purdue	61.5	1
80	Rutgers	61.5	2
81	Army	60.5	2.5
82	Air Force	60	2
83	Navy	60	2.5
84	Georgia Southern	59.5	3.5
85	Utah State	59.5	3
86	Georgia Tech	59	2
87	South Florida	59	3
88	Stanford	59	1.5
89	East Carolina	58.5	2
90	Connecticut	58	3
91	Jacksonville State	58	3.5
92	Louisiana-Lafayette	57.5	2
93	Western Michigan	57.5	3.5
94	Wyoming	57	2
95	UNLV	56.5	2.5
96	Rice	55.5	3
97	South Alabama	55.5	2
98	Nevada	55	1
99	Temple	55	2
100	Toledo	55	3.5
101	Marshall	54.5	3.5
102	Troy	54.5	3
103	Tulane	54.5	2.5
104	San Diego State	54	2
105	UAB	54	2.5
106	Washington State	54	3
107	Appalachian State	53.5	2
108	Georgia State	53.5	1
109	Old Dominion	53.5	1.5
110	Arkansas State	52.5	2.5
111	Delaware	52.5	1
112	Kennesaw State	52.5	2.5
113	Ohio	52	3.5
114	Coastal Carolina	51	2
115	San Jose State	51	2.5
116	New Mexico State	50.5	2.5
117	Miami (Ohio)	49.5	3.5
118	Buffalo	49	2
119	Colorado State	49	2
120	Florida International	49	2
121	Middle Tennessee	49	1.5
122	Missouri State	49	2
123	Central Michigan	48.5	3
124	Hawai’i	48.5	3
125	Southern Mississippi	47.5	2
126	Western Kentucky	47	3
127	Eastern Michigan	46	2.5
128	Charlotte	45.5	1
129	Massachusetts	45	1
130	Bowling Green	43.5	2
131	Louisiana-Monroe	43	2
132	Ball State	42.5	3
133	Northern Illinois	42.5	1.5
134	Sam Houston State	41.5	2
135	UTEP	40	1
136	Akron	38.5	2
137	Kent State	38.5	1
138	Sacramento State	28.5	2

Week 11 PR Adjustments

Up: Buffalo +3, Central Michigan +1.5, Ball State +2, Florida Atlantic +2.5, James Madison +1, SMU +2.5, Illinois +2.5, New Mexico +2.5, TCU +2, UCLA +2.5, Clemson +1, Duke +2, Cincinnati +1.5, Baylor +2.5, Arkansas +1.5, Penn State +2.5, Louisiana Monroe +2, Georgia +1.5, Oklahoma +2.5, Tulsa +2.5, Alabama +2.5, Missouri State +3, Louisiana Tech +3, New Mexico State +1.5, Tennessee +1.5, Air Force +2.5, Utah State +1.5, Texas State +2.5, Wyoming +3, Syracuse +2, Northern Illinois +2

Down: Miami (OH) -1.5, Ohio -1, Eastern Michigan -1.5, Toledo -3.5, UTSA -2.5, Nebraska -3.5, Arizona -2.5, Purdue -3, App State -3, Michigan -2.5, Missouri -2.5, Northwestern -3.5, Houston -1.5, Hawaii -1.5, Washington -1, Arkansas State -4, Ole Miss -3, Florida -2.5, Ohio State -3, LSU -2.5, Navy -2.5, FIU -6, Army -1.5, Fresno State -1.5, Oregon State -2.5, UNLV -2.5, Auburn -3, Minnesota -2.5, NC State -3, Nevada -4

My Week 11 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away	Home	Line
11/10	Kent State	Bowling Green	-7
	Western Michigan	Akron	+17
	Ohio	Miami (OH)	-1
11/11	UMass	Toledo	-13.5
	Buffalo	Ball State	+3.5
	Sacramento State	Central Michigan	-23
11/12	Memphis	South Florida	+3.5
	Louisiana	Louisiana Monroe	+12.5
11/13	Florida State	Pitt	+3
	Illinois	UCLA	-11.5
	Houston	Colorado	+12.5
11/14	Cincinnati	Iowa State	+1
	Auburn	Mississippi State	+5
	James Madison	UConn	+2.5
	Kansas	West Virginia	PK
	Northwestern	Ohio State	-8.5
	Wisconsin	Maryland	+11.5
	UAB	Temple	-3
	Minnesota	Penn State	-6.5
	Alabama	Vanderbilt	+19.5
	Duke	Miami (FL)	-14
	Georgia Southern	Georgia State	+5
	App State	Marshall	-4.5
	East Carolina	Charlotte	+12
	Louisville	North Carolina	+2.5
	Troy	South Alabama	-3
	Georgia Tech	Clemson	-15.5
	Wake Forest	SMU	-1
	Syracuse	NC State	+1.5
	Purdue	Iowa	-18.5
	Washington	Michigan State	+5
	Nebraska	Rutgers	+8
	Arkansas State	Coastal Carolina	-0.5
	North Texas	UTSA	+3
	Florida Atlantic	Tulsa	-2.5
	Tulane	Rice	-4
	Wyoming	UTEP	+16
	Utah	Arizona	+4
	Kennesaw State	Sam Houston State	+9
	Baylor	BYU	-5.5
	New Mexico State	Missouri State	-0.5
	Michigan	Oregon	-9.5
	FIU	Delaware	-4.5
	Southern Miss	Louisiana Tech	-20.5
	Cal	Virginia	-8.5
	Texas	LSU	-3.5
	South Carolina	Arkansas	+11
	Kansas State	TCU	-11
	Arizona State	UCF	-1.5
	Ole Miss	Oklahoma	+1
	Stanford	Virginia Tech	-16.5
	Texas Tech	Oklahoma State	-2.5
	USC	Indiana	-8.5
	Tennessee	Texas A&M	+4.5
	Missouri	Georgia	-19
	Middle Tennessee	Liberty	-22
	Nevada	Northern Illinois	+11
	Jacksonville State	Western Kentucky	+8
	Boston College	Notre Dame	-26.5
	Fresno State	Texas State	-9.5
	Oregon State	Boise State	-13
	Florida	Kentucky	-0.5
	San Jose State	Air Force	-11
	UNLV	New Mexico	-16.5
	Utah State	San Diego State	+3.5
	Colorado State	Washington State	-8
	North Dakota State	Hawaii	+12.5

Games to consider:

Florida State +4 (-3) vs. Pitt: I’ve been out on Pitt since Mason Heintschel got hurt and I’m out on them here

Wisconsin -7.5 (-11.5) vs. Maryland: Maryland has stepped up a bit without Mike Locksley, but I don’t think it’s been that much

Marshall +2.5 (-4.5) vs. App State: App State is about as Jekyll and Hyde as any team in the country; I haven’t had a good rating on them much of the season

Florida Atlantic +5.5 (+2.5) vs. Tulsa: Tulsa’s throttling of Tulane said something about both teams, but I think it said more about the Green Wave

Wyoming -9.5 (-16) vs. UTEP: UTEP is atrocious and Wyoming is playing pretty well right now. Maybe this is a little too heavy on my power rating, but I think the line is short, even with a Cowboys offense that might not be super potent

North Dakota State -7 (-12.5) at Hawaii: I think the worry here is that NDSU hasn’t gone out Hawaii, but I find this line a little cheap

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.