NFL Odds Week 10
The second half of the NFL season gets underway this week. Are you happy with where your team is? Are you happy with how your betting season is going? We have a pretty good set of statistics out there now and that means that you have enough data to switch things up if your process isn’t working. Obviously so many things in the NFL are based on how the strengths and weaknesses line up for both teams, but there are still some different things to try when attempting to pick winners.
One of them might be watching the lines to see when they are moving and also take note of where they opened. As usual, we have some big adjustments off of the lookahead lines, especially with some injuries of consequence.
Be sure to keep an eye on our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and exclusive Circa NFL Betting Splits throughout the week.
Odds from Circa Sportsbook as of 7:30 p.m. PT.
Here is the Week 10 NFL Odds Report:
Commanders at Giants (-1.5, 44)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
NFC East rivals come together here, as the Giants are a short favorite over the Commanders. It is probably surprising to see the first-place Giants just a small favorite here on a short week with travel for Washington, even if it is a pretty short trek. This feels like a line that will move up, but it was not altered much, if at all, from the lookahead line. The total did tick up a bit, but the side didn’t.
Patriots vs. Lions (-2.5, 51) (Munich)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (FOX)
Coming off of a beatdown thanks to a defensive meltdown, the Patriots have to get things together quickly. A trip across the Atlantic Ocean to Munich doesn’t leave a lot of time to fix holes in the secondary. A matchup with the Lions makes it even worse. Detroit’s offense was not terribly explosive against Miami, but the defense had a really strong showing. DraftKings had New England -1.5 in the lookahead market, so this line violently swung the other way and it’s easy to see why. The total also moved up with New England’s disastrous defensive display.
Jaguars (-9.5, 47) at Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
For the second straight week, Jacksonville hits the road with a big favorite price. Last week was against Baltimore on Thursday Night Football. Now they’re on extra rest taking on a Titans team that is off the bye after falling to 1-7 with a loss to the Bengals. Only two of those seven losses have been by an amount that would cover this spread. Tennessee’s had a pretty solid defense, though they also traded away Jeffery Simmons during the bye week, and that could be an impactful loss as they get back to work. This line was 8.5 in the lookahead world before getting bumped after TNF was finished.
Dolphins at Colts (-2, 41.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
How bad are the Dolphins? They’re an underdog to the Colts, who are in the midst of a five-game losing streak that featured several trades and also the dismissal of the GM. Miami had a pretty decent effort against the Lions this past week, but that didn’t alter this line at all, even though the Colts also lost to the Cowboys. The lookahead number was 2.5 and that’s what this line is as we head into game week at most shops. Circa was the low point in the market at 2.
Chiefs (-3, 46.5) at Falcons
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Chiefs got a major scare on Sunday when Patrick Mahomes was hit hard and violently thrown to the ground. He got up holding his arm, but returned to the game and KC had no problems with the Jets. The Falcons are coming back with no rest after playing in Madrid this past week, so I’m actually a bit surprised that we haven’t seen this line go bigger, though bettors could do that as the week goes along. The Falcons definitely have issues and the Chiefs look pretty buttoned up again. We’ll have to keep an eye on the status of Mahomes throughout the week.
Texans (-4, 39.5) at Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Browns are coming off of a very long game, as they scored a TD in overtime and opted to go for the win with one minute left, coming up short on the two-point conversion attempt. Teams that played overtime the week prior are usually pretty good teams to bet against. The Browns might just be a good team to bet against in general as we go forward, as they continue to play close games and have a lot of regression signs in the statistical profile. The Texans are going from the Pacific Coast to the Lake Erie Coast here, so it is back-to-back road games. But, this line seems pretty right, even with that in mind.
Panthers (-1, 47) at Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
The lookahead market had Carolina as a road favorite heading to the Big Easy. The NFC South is quite awful once again and 8-9 could very well be good enough to take down the division. In that respect, this is a huge game because not much separates these teams. As mentioned with the game above, a lot of bettors like to fade teams coming off of overtime games and that’s exactly what the Saints are doing here. I’ll be honest – I think the market has strongly disliked the Saints all season long and, to this point, they’ve mostly been proven right.
Seahawks (-3.5, 43.5) at Raiders
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Raiders have not had success when stepping up in class, which is what they are doing again this week. At 4-5, the Raiders have beaten the Dolphins, Chargers, Saints, and Jets, while losing to the Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, Rams, and 49ers. The Seahawks are certainly a lot closer to that good group of teams, even if we see Drew Lock over Sam Darnold again this week. We shall see where this line goes, as the trend for the Raiders is very well known by this point.
Rams (-7, 45) at Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
It certainly looks like the Rams are on track now. Myles Garrett came back with three sacks and the Rams have reeled off three wins in a row. Arizona has been a pretty feisty team all things considered, but the Rams are out to more than a touchdown favorite in this game and you won’t hear an argument from anybody about that. This is a revenge game for the Rams, who lost 18-16 to the Cardinals prior to going on this current three-game run. It seems like maybe that was a wake-up call for the preseason Super Bowl favorites.
49ers (-4, 55.5) at Cowboys
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
It is a light 4 p.m. window and this is the only 4:25 game. There was a time when this would be a heavyweight title fight. Now it’s a heavyweight against a welterweight. San Francisco is a comfortable road favorite here, even though the Cowboys did win this past week. They also won over the Colts, which won’t move the needle at all whatsoever. The road has not been overly kind to San Fran this season, as they beat Seattle by 3 and lost to Atlanta by 9. This could be a tiny bit of a lookahead spot for the Niners with a trip to Mexico City to face Minnesota on deck.
Steelers at Bengals (-3.5, 47.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
It is not an ideal spot for Cincy here, as the Bengals come back from Madrid to face a rested division rival. The Steelers have already played both of their games against the Browns and will now play their second game against the Bengals. Pittsburgh won the first meeting 30-27 and will look for the regular-season sweep, which would be massive given how tight the AFC North standings are between those two teams right now. The Steelers and their 43-year-old QB are coming off the bye week, so that adds to the situational intrigue of this line.
Chargers at Ravens (-3.5, 38.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Comedy Central)
In an alternate universe, this game would be a banger. In this universe, this game is a dud. The Ravens don’t have Lamar Jackson. The Chargers don’t have a win. It’s a long, cross-country trek for LA, but at least it isn’t a 10 a.m. body clock game. This is no longer the Harbowl, with John coaching the Giants, and we may never have a chance at that again if the Chargers keep going down this path. Regardless, this will probably be the lowest-volume MNF game of the season.
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