Week 11 College Football Predictions
Ohio State and Indiana are starting to put some major separation between themselves and the rest of the pack of college football teams. Both registered dominant wins Saturday, with the Buckeyes beating Penn State 38-14 while Indiana dismantled Maryland and got coach Mike Locksley fired after a score of 55-10. Not sure if you saw the ending of Georgia/Florida, but is that Georgia QB kneeling at the goal line considered a bad beat even though Florida was probably the right side most of the game? Either way, it definitely swung lots of money with that decision, as both the spread and total were decided with that play. We are back on the horse for Week 11, and the T Shoe Index has some early numbers it likes, so let’s get to the bets:
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.
UAB (+3) vs Rice, O/U 53.5
Rice is laying three points here as a home favorite, but is just 1-4 straight up in its last five games and just 2-3 ATS. They’re also 1-4 ATS at home and just 1-2 ATS as a favorite. Since firing Trent Dilfer, UAB is 1-1 straight up and ATS, but did beat AAC contender Memphis, which probably qualifies as the best win either of these teams has had this year. TSI projects Rice as just a one-point favorite, but over the last three games, that number is trending more like UAB -7, so I think UAB is a very live dog here, but if there are still going to be full +3s out there, I’m going to take it. If it gets below that, maybe just grab the ML.
College Football Pick: UAB +3
Maryland (-1.5) vs Rutgers, O/U 58.5
As my buddy and VSiN Primetime host, Tim Murray, pointed out this week, teams are 7-2 ATS the week after firing their head coach this season. That’s pretty counterintuitive, in my opinion, but I guess if the groupthink is that “this team quit because the coach is fired”, that could inflate these lines and create value on those teams. Maryland is on that list this week after firing Mike Locksley, and TSI projects them as a four-point favorite against Rutgers. I also think the recency factor of them losing 55-10 to Indiana is stuck in people’s heads, but I think that’s more about Indiana being awesome than anything Maryland isn’t—aside from looking for a coach. Even with that beatdown, Maryland’s rating over the last three games is substantially higher than Rutgers’s, so I feel good about laying under a field goal with the Terps.
College Football Pick: Maryland -1.5
For more Week 11 college football predictions and analysis, visit the College Football Week 11 Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
