Week 11 College Football
Welcome to the Week 11 edition of “TSI vs the Field”, my weekly article where I take a look at the college football slate through the lens of my proprietary college football model, the T Shoe Index, and compare and contrast where other respected predictive models – SP+, FPI, and Sagarin – align and disagree on the college football schedule. There are Week 11 college football betting opportunities based on model alignment and games where it may be best to proceed with caution or stay away if the projections vary too much.
Note: SP+ Rankings are the work of CFB analyst Bill Connelly (ESPN), FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Week 11 College Football Model Alignment
Model Consensus
UTSA vs South Florida (-14), O/U 67.5
UTSA is coming off of a curb-stomping of Tulane to keep themselves technically alive for AAC contention, where every game is going to feel like a must-win for the Roadrunners. South Florida, eyeing the College Football Playoff, has a lot to lose here but is taking on a UTSA team that seems to have found its groove offensively.
The model average projection on this game is South Florida -12 (in line with the opener) with a variance of just 2.6 points. All of the models are projecting between a 10.5 and 13 point Bulls’ win, so getting +14 with UTSA is crucial here. SP+ makes the game USF -10.5, while the other three models all fall within 12-13 points in favor of South Florida.
College Football Pick: UTSA +14
UCF vs Houston (-1.5), O/U 47.5
This line opened as a pick ‘em but has been driven towards Houston this week, as bettors are banking on a bounceback spot for Houston after a dreadful performance against lowly West Virginia last week, while UCF got pounded by Baylor in a game that burned many sharp bettors who had UCF +3.5 in that game.
Our model average projection on this game is UCF -1.1 with a variance of just 2.4 points. All four models have this game at a pick ‘em or UCF favored; none of them are on Houston. TSI and SP+ both make it a pick ‘em, while FPI is the strongest projection in favor of the Knights at -2.5 and Sagarin has UCF -1. I would’ve loved this spot even better had Houston won last week, but I still think UCF at home is a solid play here and the models unanimously agree.
College Football Pick: UCF +1.5
Model Disagreement
Penn State vs Indiana (-15.5), O/U 48.5
I don’t think it’s all that shocking to see this game lead the “model disagreement” section this week because of the meteoric rise of the Hoosiers and and catastrophic cliff-dive the Nittany Lions have suffered this year. Like I always say, show me your projection and I’ll tell you how much weight you put into your priors.
We’ve got projections ranging from Indiana -7 (Sagarin) to Indiana -20 (TSI), while FPI and SP+ are closely aligned at -11 and -12 in favor of the Hoosiers. Sagarin’s projection tells me there’s still plenty of preseason weight on the Penn State rating, while TSI obviously has rapidly adjusted for the on-field performance from not-James-Franklin’s team. Indiana is also dealing with star WR Elijah Surratt possibly being out with a hamstring injury, so I’m going to pass on this game.
Clemson (-2.5) vs Florida State, O/U 56.5
This is a game I really didn’t want to touch anyway, but after seeing the models scattered from Clemson -3.5 to Florida State -9, I definitely want no part of it.
The average projection on this game is Florida State -2.5 (median Clemson -2.5), with a variance of 12.3 points. TSI is staunchly on the Seminoles here, which has burned me before, projecting FSU -9, and SP+ and FPI align on the ‘Noles winning the game, while Sagarin still has Clemson -3.5. Both teams are so drastically different week-to-week and certainly from the preseason expectations, so I don’t think any result in this game could surprise me. I will pass and watch the chaos as a neutral observer.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Thursdays and also my Monday early-week college football bets.
