Week 12 College Football Odds, Power Ratings and Projections

Week 12 College Football

Week 12 college football power ratings have been put together by both bettors and bookmakers and we’ve all spent Sunday comparing notes. That process will continue on into Monday and Tuesday before it starts becoming more about the matchup and the qualitative parts of the handicap.

As I hinted at last week, I weigh my power ratings less when we get to this point in the season because there are a lot of intangibles we have to consider. Are teams still invested and engaged? Are these inflations in the lines justified? Is the team that we have 11 weeks worth of data points still the same? In that, are they playing the same QB? Have more underclassmen been getting into games? Is the coach still there? The life cycle of a college football team really only lasts a handful of months now and you have to be fluid with your evaluations.

So, while I’m still using my numbers to try and get some line value on Sunday night and Monday morning, they’re less of a factor to me as the week goes along. Rolling with the punches, the news cycle, and the quotes that make their way around social media becomes even more important the deeper we get into November.

Nevertheless, I’ve studied the market moves, looked at the box scores, compared my numbers, and have made my adjustments to put together this week’s 1 to 136 for Week 12.

Week 12 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Ohio State	92.5	3.5
2	Indiana	90	2.5
3	Notre Dame	88.5	3
4	Alabama	88	3.5
5	Texas A&M	87	2
6	Oregon	86.5	3.5
7	Georgia	86	3
8	Utah	85.5	3
9	Texas Tech	84.5	3
10	Vanderbilt	84	1.5
11	Texas	83.5	3.5
12	Miami (Florida)	83	2
13	Oklahoma	82	3
14	Mississippi	81.5	3
15	USC	81	3
16	Michigan	79.5	3
17	Iowa	79	3
18	Tennessee	79	3.5
19	Auburn	78	2
20	LSU	76.5	3.5
21	Missouri	76	3.5
22	Cincinnati	75.5	1.5
23	Georgia Tech	75.5	2
24	Illinois	75.5	2
25	Arizona State	75	2
26	BYU	75	2
27	Penn State	75	3.5
28	Washington	75	3.5
29	Clemson	74	2.5
30	Florida State	73	2
31	Iowa State	73	2
32	Mississippi State	73	2
33	TCU	73	3
34	Duke	72.5	3.5
35	Florida	72.5	2
36	Louisville	72.5	3.5
37	South Florida	72	1.5
38	Arkansas	71.5	2
39	Pittsburgh	71.5	2
40	SMU	71.5	3.5
41	Kentucky	71	2
42	Houston	70.5	2
43	Kansas State	70.5	3.5
44	Arizona	70	2
45	North Carolina State	70	2
46	South Carolina	70	2.5
47	Virginia	70	2
48	Baylor	69	2
49	Memphis	69	2.5
50	Nebraska	69	2
51	North Texas	68.5	2
52	Northwestern	68.5	1.5
53	Kansas	67.5	2.5
54	Tulane	67.5	2.5
55	James Madison	67	3
56	San Diego State	67	2
57	Boise State	66	3.5
58	East Carolina	66	2
59	Minnesota	66	2
60	UCLA	66	2
61	Rutgers	65.5	2
62	UCF	65.5	2
63	Wake Forest	65	2
64	Wisconsin	64.5	2
65	Michigan State	64	2
66	Connecticut	63.5	2.5
67	Maryland	63.5	2
68	Purdue	63.5	1
69	Virginia Tech	63.5	2
70	West Virginia	63.5	2
71	Navy	63	2
72	Army	61	2.5
73	Toledo	61	3
74	Hawai’i	60.5	2
75	Old Dominion	60.5	1.5
76	New Mexico	60	2
77	Southern Mississippi	60	2
78	UNLV	60	2.5
79	North Carolina	59.5	2
80	Temple	59.5	2
81	California	59	2
82	San Jose State	59	2.5
83	Utah State	59	2
84	Colorado	58	2
85	Miami (Ohio)	58	2.5
86	UTSA	58	3.5
87	Fresno State	57	2
88	Air Force	56.5	2
89	Kennesaw State	56.5	1.5
90	Louisiana Tech	56.5	2
91	Ohio	56.5	3.5
92	Washington State	56	3
93	Florida Atlantic	55.5	2
94	Stanford	55.5	1
95	Texas State	55	2
96	Troy	55	3
97	Wyoming	55	2
98	Louisiana-Lafayette	54.5	2
99	Syracuse	54.5	2.5
100	Boston College	54	2
101	South Alabama	53.5	2
102	Western Michigan	53.5	2
103	Oregon State	52.5	3.5
104	Western Kentucky	52	2.5
105	Arkansas State	51.5	2
106	Central Michigan	51.5	2
107	Coastal Carolina	51.5	2
108	Tulsa	51.5	1
109	Marshall	51	3
110	UAB	51	2.5
111	Jacksonville State	50.5	3.5
112	Delaware	50	3
113	Liberty	50	3
114	Rice	50	3
115	Appalachian State	49.5	2
116	Colorado State	49.5	2
117	Missouri State	49	2
118	Georgia Southern	48	3.5
119	Florida International	47.5	2
120	UTEP	47.5	2
121	Nevada	47	1
122	Buffalo	46.5	2
123	Eastern Michigan	46	2
124	Middle Tennessee	45.5	2
125	Northern Illinois	45.5	1
126	Oklahoma State	45	2
127	Akron	44.5	2
128	Bowling Green	44.5	2
129	Georgia State	44.5	1
130	Louisiana-Monroe	44	2
131	New Mexico State	44	2.5
132	Ball State	42.5	2.5
133	Kent State	42	1
134	Sam Houston State	42	0.5
135	Charlotte	39	1
136	Massachusetts	31.5	1

Here are my Week 12 power ratings adjustments:

Up: Akron +2, Ball State +1, Tulane +3, Northwestern +1, Florida Atlantic +2, Kentucky +1.5, Army +2.5, West Virginia +1.5, Texas A&M +1.5, Texas Tech +1.5, Auburn +1.5, Louisiana +1.5, Iowa +2, Wisconsin +1.5, UConn +3.5, Notre Dame +1.5, Virginia +1.5, Kansas +1, Iowa State +1, Kennesaw State +1.5, Coastal Carolina +1, FIU +1

Down: UMass -2, Northern Illinois -1.5, Memphis -1.5, East Carolina -1.5, Florida -6, Colorado -2.5, Florida State -1.5, Louisville -2.5, Penn State -2.5, Bowling Green -1.5, Missouri -1.5, Texas State -1.5, Oregon -4, Washington -1.5, Arizona -2.5, Duke -1.5, Navy -1.5, Maryland -2, TCU -1

Some notes on the biggest movers:

UConn +3.5: The Huskies were flying under the radar until their big win over Duke. QB Joe Fagnano has a 25/0 TD/INT ratio for a 68.8% completion rate. I’m not sure how I didn’t really notice that until now, but what a special season for him. At 6-foot-4, the Senior Bowl and Combine could be rather interesting for him.

Tulane +3: My line and my opinion on Tulane vs. Memphis was very off, so adjustments to both for this week. Impressive effort from the Green Wave, who were the right side in that one.

Florida -6: The Gators quit last week. They were one of my favorite plays against Kentucky and they got crushed. They had four takeaways and scored seven points. Kentucky had a 150-yard edge. Pathetic. Absolutely pathetic. Looks like the Georgia game was their last stand.

Oregon -4: I finally decided I had enough data points of mediocrity out of Oregon to adjust them down. I’ve been too high on them for a few weeks, but it was time after that marginal effort against Iowa. A win, but not impressive otherwise. I know the weather didn’t help, but still.

Penn State -2.5: I lowered Penn State despite nearly beating Indiana because I had the line at +9 and it obviously closed a lot higher. You really have to wonder if Penn State has energy left after playing Ohio State and Indiana in back-to-back weeks and losing both chances to salvage something out of the season.

My Week 12 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
11/11	Ohio	Western Michigan	+1
	Kent State	Akron	-4.5
11/12	Northern Illinois	UMass	+13
	Toledo	Miami (OH)	+0.5
	Buffalo	Central Michigan	-7
11/13	Troy	Old Dominion	-7
11/14	Clemson	Louisville	-2
	Minnesota	Oregon	-24
11/15	Coastal Carolina	Georgia Southern	PK
	Air Force	UConn	-9.5
	UTSA	Charlotte	+18
	Texas	Georgia	-5.5
	App State	James Madison	-20.5
	Arizona	Cincinnati	-7
	Memphis	East Carolina	+1
	Marshall	Georgia State	+5.5
	South Florida	Navy (w/ Horvath)	+7
	Georgia Tech	Boston College	+19.5
	Virginia	Duke	-6
	Virginia Tech	Florida State	-11.5
	Wisconsin	Indiana	-28
	NC State	Miami (FL)	-15
	Penn State	Michigan State	+9
	UCLA	Ohio State	-30
	Notre Dame	Pitt	+15
	North Carolina	Wake Forest	-7.5
	Eastern Michigan	Ball State	+1
	Oklahoma	Alabama	-9.5
	Delaware	Sam Houston State	+7.5
	Oregon State	Tulsa	PK
	Texas State	Southern Miss	-7
	UCF	Texas Tech	-22
	Kansas State	Oklahoma State	+23.5
	Utah	Baylor	+14.5
	Florida	Mississippi	-12
	Mississippi State	Missouri	-6.5
	FAU	Tulane	-14.5
	South Carolina	Texas A&M	-19
	Arkansas	LSU	-8.5
	South Alabama	UL Monroe	+7.5
	North Texas	UAB	+15
	Maryland	Illinois	-14
	Michigan	Northwestern	+9.5
	Kennesaw State	Jacksonville State	+2.5
	Colorado State	New Mexico	-12.5
	TCU	BYU	-4
	West Virginia	Arizona State	-13.5
	UTEP	Missouri State	-3.5
	Wyoming	Fresno State	-4
	Iowa	USC	-5
	Purdue	Washington	-15
	Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky	-9
	San Jose State	Nevada	+11
	New Mexico State	Tennessee	-38.5
	Liberty	FIU	+0.5
	Utah State	UNLV	-3.5
	Louisiana Tech	Washington State	-2.5
	Boise State	San Diego State	-3

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

Central Michigan -2 (-7) vs. Buffalo: Hey, a MACtion play for Wednesday. Extra prep for both, but I haven’t given Buffalo any credit for beating Eastern Michigan in OT, beating pathetic UMass by 7, and Bowling Green by 25. I guess the close loss to UConn is aging well, but this line looks cheap to me.

Troy +11 (+7) at Old Dominion: This one feels steep. Troy had a setback against Arkansas State, but has had some extra time now and they had reeled off five wins in a row prior to that, as they’ve adjusted to life without Goose Crowder.

Notre Dame -10.5 (-15) at Pitt: I really think this Notre Dame team is out for blood every week. Marcus Freeman knows the situation. This is the Irish’s last decent opponent with Syracuse and Stanford left. Pitt may be ranked, but they’ve beaten nobody of consequence except maybe NC State, but they’re all over the place this season.

Utah -9 (-14.5) at Baylor: I’ll end up on Utah here. Sawyer Robertson has the chance to orchestrate an upset over any team in the country and Baylor’s defensive metrics are better than I’m giving them credit for right now. I still think there’s a big gap between these two.

Louisiana Tech +6.5 (+2.5) at Washington State: Really, really weird and random game here. Long trip from Ruston to Pullman. This might be a stay-away because of those factors. My power rating is just a raw number with the teams and my default HFA for each individual team. That misses a lot in a game like this.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.