By Friday night, there will be less than one month left in the college football regular season. And that’s only because I’m including the Army-Navy Game on December 13. For most, the regular season ends in a few weeks. Conference championship games are the first week of December. I guess what I’m saying is that it’s crazy that we’re already looking at Week 12 college football odds.
We aren’t quite at the point where we’re seeing “must-win” inflation on teams vying for bowl eligibility, but we may be seeing some inflation on the College Football Playoff contenders, especially against non-playoff teams. There are also some CFP teams that are deserving of it because they’re interested in racking up style points to improve the metrics.
Some teams also might not have a lot of GAF left in the tank, as the transfer portal has players thinking about their next opportunities. Those won’t be factored into the line much and we’ll have to figure them out for ourselves, but you want to think about that for the next three weeks.
Let’s talk about the Week 12 college football odds.
Check out the DraftKings College Football Betting Splits and Circa College Football Betting Splits to follow line moves all week long!
Week 12 College Football Odds Report
Lines as of Sunday, November 9 at 4:30 p.m. PT
Kent State at Akron (-6, 47.5)
Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. ET
More MACtion this week to kick things off! I bring up this game because of Akron, who is favored in back-to-back weeks against FBS opponents for the first time since Weeks 8 and 9 of the 2018 season. The Zips crushed UMass last week and will now try to beat Kent State in the Wagon Wheel rivalry. Kent State was one of the two teams Akron was favored against in consecutive weeks back in 2018. Central Michigan was the other.
Toledo (-3, 44.5) at Miami (OH)
Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET
This line merits a mention, as we saw Toledo money gradually hit the board last week for a high-spread, low-total game against Northern Illinois. This one opened -2.5 at Circa and at Fanduel (with extra vig) and had gotten as high as 3.5 by Sunday afternoon. Going through a key number quickly is a pretty good indicator, at least at the shops that did that. Circa must have taken a hit or two and stopped at 3. Keep a close watch on this line, as trust in Jason Candle as a favorite is slim, but Toledo’s metrics have gotten them bet up upon open more than once of late.
Northern Illinois (-11.5, 43.5) at UMass
Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET
As mentioned, Akron crushed UMass last week (44-10), so it’s no surprise to see UMass a double-digit underdog here at home. However, Northern Illinois has scored just 69 points in five MAC games thus far and 110 points in nine games this season. The Minutemen are 136th in the nation in yards per play. The Huskies are 134th. There is a huge gap defensively between the two teams, but this is a big ask for an anemic offense. But, who wants to bet a UMass team beaten by 34, 25, 7, 36, and 18 in five MAC games, including 34 and 36 by Akron and Kent State?
Northern Illinois-UMass Matchup
Clemson at Louisville (-3.5, 51)
Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET
We’ve got Friday night ACC action here and it is a pretty interesting game because of what has transpired for these two teams. Louisville just lost in overtime to Cal and Clemson is not playing for what the program is used to playing for at this time of the year. The Tigers did beat Florida State last week by a couple touchdowns as a short favorite. Louisville’s CFP hopes aren’t totally dashed because of how bad the ACC is, but they took an enormous hit last week. I think we’re going to see Clemson money hit the board here.
South Carolina at Texas A&M (-18.5, 47.5)
Saturday Noon, ET
The Gamecocks finally did the right thing and fired Mike Shula, the beleaguered offensive coordinator who has ruined LaNorris Sellers’ final year of college football. Not only was Shula recently fired, but so was OL coach Lonnie Teasley. WR coach Mike Furrey will serve as the interim OC, though Shane Beamer downplayed the title, saying it would be a collective effort. In any event, Circa opened Texas A&M -17 and that wasn’t enough, as the line went up to 18.5. I am curious about the total, which ticked down, but I really do think Shula was holding SC back and we could see a little more offense here.
South Carolina-Texas A&M Matchup
Oklahoma at Alabama (-7, 46.5)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
This game will be a case study in evaluating recent performance vs. full-season numbers. John Mateer has clearly not been himself since returning. Since coming back against Texas, he has a 2/4 TD/INT ratio and has thrown for 202, 150, 223, and 159 yards, while not being as active in the running game as we saw him earlier this season. Also, Oklahoma’s defensive numbers are starting to drop after a strong start to the season. But, I would argue that this line against an Alabama team that has ripped off eight wins in a row shows a lot of respect to the Sooners. Will we see it go north of 7? I think we will, at least as a feeler for the books to see how much the market respects Oklahoma.
Virginia at Duke (-6.5, 58.5)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
This line is going to be very interesting as the week goes along. Duke just lost to UConn, which I’ll get back to in a second. Virginia fumbled away their game against Wake Forest, literally and figuratively, as a team that had not lost a fumble all season lost three of them against the Demon Deacons. The Cavaliers defense was stellar. The offense didn’t protect the ball. They’ve been a regression candidate for a while and it hit all at once. Then there’s Duke, who just lost to UConn, but it was a random game in the middle of ACC play that didn’t mean much to the Blue Devils. But, Duke was a wrong-side winner against Clemson, as the Tigers won that box score handily. I can’t wait to see where this one goes…if it goes anywhere.
South Alabama (-4.5, 52) at UL Monroe
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
A Sun Belt matinee in Monroe here that got a lot of attention at open. This one opened -7 at Circa and bettors lined up on the Warhawks. Fanduel and DraftKings both had 3.5 early in the betting process, so Circa’s number was quite a bit higher than market and it seems like they are either too high on South Alabama or too low on UL Monroe. Time will tell who was right. I wonder if we see some South Alabama money come back on Tuesday as betting groups release wagers to their customers.
South Alabama-UL Monroe Matchup
Memphis at East Carolina (-3, 59.5)
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET
One of the lines I was most excited to see this week was Memphis and ECU. With the Tigers losing to Tulane in a game where money just kept coming in on the Green Wave – and they were the right side – East Carolina opened a favorite here. That may come as a shock to some, as Memphis was in the driver’s seat for the Group of Five playoff berth going into last Friday. East Carolina has been a bit inconsistent, but they are favored here, and now we’ll see if influential bettors agree or not.
Texas at Georgia (-6.5, 47.5)
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
This is a game that saw favorite money hit early and quickly. Circa actually opened Georgia -5, while Fanduel opened -5.5 and we saw DraftKings around 6. Georgia took money throughout most of last week against Mississippi State and paid bettors back for their loyalty with a no-sweat cover. Will they do the same here this week against a Texas team that we’ve all had questions about with Arch Manning at the helm? I think we’re likely to see 7 hit here and then we’ll wait to see if Longhorn lovers come back on the dog.
TCU at BYU (-6, 52.5)
Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET
This all-acronym battle saw BYU open -4 at Circa and shoot up to -6. DraftKings opened 4.5 and saw similar movement. I have to say that I’m a bit surprised, given that TCU won the box score against Iowa State, but lost the game on a punt return TD. Usually when you see a misleading final score like that, the line moves in the direction of the team that got unlucky. That is not the case here, which is also telling because, much like Virginia, a lot of us in the gambling world were viewing BYU as a regression candidate and it seemed to happen against Texas Tech. Truth be told, I don’t know that this line goes any higher than 6 or 6.5, but TCU has been hard to pin down all season.
Keep an eye out for more line movements by tracking our VSiN College Football Betting Splits.
