College Football Picks
By Sunday, a dozen weeks of the college football season will be finished. Like the NFL, college football is a 24/7/365 sport these days with the transfer portal, NIL, and coaching carousel, but it really does feel like you prep for so long and then the season goes away in the blink of an eye. Of course, when we really think about it, the season still has another two months left now with how long the College Football Playoff goes. This week will mean a lot in terms of the CFP picture and some of those games might even be part of your Week 12 college football picks.
One such game is on my mind this week. Whether it’s a marquee matchup or not, we’re all striving for the same goals week in and week out and that’s to make some money.
These are my favorite Week 12 college football picks, but we have many others. You can check out our Week 12 College Football Hub to see what others are taking and also to explore all of our college football tools, power ratings, and more. See our College Football Pro Picks page for more from my colleagues and broadcast guests.
Here are my Week 12 College Football Picks:
Odds as of Wednesday, November 12, 3:30 p.m. PT
South Carolina at Texas A&M (-18.5, 49)
Noon ET
I guess you could say that this game has some College Football Playoff implications, but I don’t expect South Carolina to end Texas A&M’s perfect season. I do, however, think that the Gamecocks can keep this one closer than the spread suggests.
OC Mike Shula was finally fired, a move that took a while given that he was only in his first season as the offensive coordinator, but it was well past time. This Gamecocks offense has one of the best weapons in the nation in LaNorris Sellers and managed to rank just 89th in EPA/play and 128th in yards per play. If nothing else, the offense gets a new lease on life with Mike Furrey and the other offensive coaches collectively putting together the gameplan.
This is a good South Carolina defense that ranks in the top 30 in EPA/play per CFB Graphs. They rank 50th in yards per play allowed, which is no small feat given how little the offense has helped this season. The Gamecocks were 119th in average time of possession under Shula, a mark that has to improve moving forward, as they were 35th in that department last season.
If the Gamecocks can sustain some more drives and play a little keep-away, that will help with this type of head start. Also, while Texas A&M is a top-20 offense by yards per play and top 10 by EPA/play, they’ve had a really easy road in SEC action. Missouri’s QB is out. LSU is a mess. They did struggle on defense against Arkansas, but, again, a rudderless team without a head coach.
The Gamecocks at least present some different challenges and probably a renewed sense of hope to finish out the season with Shula gone. South Carolina is tied for 23rd in terms of fewest plays of 30+ yards allowed, so I don’t think Texas A&M will generate major explosives and that’s what they might need to blow the Gamecocks out. I’ll take my chances here, as I still think Shane Beamer is a good head coach and Sellers isn’t a bad guy to trust in this type of situation.
Pick: South Carolina +19
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern (-3, 61)
6 p.m. ET
The biggest surprise of the season in the Sun Belt is Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers looked awful early in the season, but a QB change to Samari Collier seemingly sparked the teal turfers, as they’ve rattled off 45, 44, and 40 points in his three starts and he was an integral part of their 23-8 win at UL Monroe to start this four-game winning streak.
Collier and his Conway crew are in Statesboro this weekend to battle Georgia Southern. It’s a huge game for the Chanticleers, as they’ll likely need a win to stay a game behind James Madison in the East Division. They’ll host the Dukes in the regular season finale, possibly with a championship game trip on the line. It’s a fairly big game for GSU as well, as they need to finish 2-1 to be bowl-eligible.
The Eagles’ “blowout” win over Georgia State is misleading, as they won 41-24, but scored 21 points in the fourth quarter and got outgained by 24 yards by one of the worst teams in the nation. They had nearly 500 yards of offense against App State and scored just 25 points, not to mention the loss to Arkansas State.
Clay Helton has even gotten JC French to take better care of the football this season with a 15/6 TD/INT ratio after last season’s 17/11 mark. And the Eagles still enter this game under .500, as they have one of the worst defenses in the nation, ranking 128th in YPP. They’ve also only forced 12 takeaways in nine games. Coastal Carolina is actually -1 in TO margin for the season, but +8 in conference play with 14 takeaways.
I have this game lined a pick ‘em and I could make a pretty compelling argument that the wrong team is favored.
Pick: Coastal Carolina +3
Oklahoma at Alabama (-6, 46.5)
3:30 p.m. ET
The Sooners head to Tuscaloosa for the first time as a member of the SEC and first time since 2003. In fact, this is just the second time that the program has gone there. Oklahoma is a highly-regarded team in the betting community. They rank sixth in the nation in yards per play allowed, fourth in defensive EPA/play per CFB Graphs, and fourth in points per drive allowed.
However, Oklahoma is 78th in points per drive on offense and 43rd in offensive EPA/play. The Crimson Tide are a top-11 unit in EPA/play on both sides of the ball, and are vastly better by the offensive metrics than the Sooners. Even if the Tide offense has faltered in conference play, mustering just 5.49 YPP, Oklahoma is even worse with 4.94 YPP.
Yes, Oklahoma is better on defense across the map and maybe that’s the reason for this line coming down. However, according to Brian Fremeau at BCFToys, Alabama is 10th in relative strength of opposing offenses faced. Oklahoma is now up to 26th, as they’ve lost two of their last four games and gave up 456 yards in their most recent win over Tennessee, including 393 through the air for Joey Aguilar.
Since coming back for the game against Texas, John Mateer has a 59.7% completion rate with a 2/4 TD/INT ratio and only has 2.3 yards per carry on 51 attempts. He hasn’t thrown for more than 223 yards in a game and his season-high 80 rushing yards two weeks ago required 16 carries, while only throwing for 159 yards against the Vols.
Oklahoma definitely has the rest advantage after Alabama played LSU last week, but the Crimson Tide had a bye prior to that and are coming off of one of their best defensive performances of the season.
Pick: Alabama -6
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