Week 12 College Football Power Ratings and Predictions

Week 12 College Football Power Ratings:

We’ve made it to the middle of November. The second iteration of the College Football Playoff Rankings will come out this week, but we’ve already seen some top teams lose and others really get tested. Once again, just like last week, these are nothing more than sports talk fodder and should have no bearing on your handicapping at all whatsoever.

However, there is something unquantifiable that we need to start thinking about and that is the mindset of a team. Yes, we consider it on a week-to-week basis anyway, but there will be teams that quit or mail it in from this point forward. Major programs may have no interest in playing in bowl games that are beneath them. Players are always looking for greener pastures and more money in the transfer portal, so business decisions will be made. Athletic departments have coaches on the hot seat and that will not only cause a portal exodus, but could also cause a team to not play as spirited the rest of the way.

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Even though we have a ton of data points, I find my power ratings less and less meaningful over these final few weeks. Motivation cannot be quantified. We don’t know for sure how teams are feeling or how they may react. There are also a lot of injured players that we may or may not know about. So, for me, I still keep my power ratings as part of the process, but I weigh them less than I would earlier in the season.

That being said, I’m still going through the process each week and will keep sharing them until we’re done for the season.

Here are my Week 12 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Ohio State	90	3.5
2	Oregon	90	3.5
3	Texas	89	3.5
4	Georgia	88.5	3
5	Alabama	86.5	3.5
6	Mississippi	86	3.5
7	Penn State	84	3.5
8	Notre Dame	83.5	3.5
9	Indiana	83	1.5
10	Tennessee	82.5	3.5
11	Clemson	81.5	3
12	Miami (Florida)	81.5	2
13	SMU	81	3.5
14	Texas A&M	79	3
15	Colorado	78.5	2
16	LSU	78.5	3.5
17	South Carolina	78	2.5
18	Iowa State	77	2
19	Boise State	76.5	2.5
20	Louisville	76.5	3.5
21	Kansas State	75.5	3.5
22	Kansas	74.5	2
23	USC	74.5	2
24	Virginia Tech	74.5	2
25	Iowa	74	2.5
26	Tulane	74	2
27	Baylor	73.5	2
28	BYU	73.5	2
29	Wisconsin	73.5	2
30	Arizona State	73	2
31	Washington	73	2
32	Auburn	72.5	2
33	California	72.5	2
34	UCF	72.5	3
35	Army	72	2
36	Kentucky	72	2.5
37	TCU	72	2.5
38	Cincinnati	71.5	2
39	Vanderbilt	71.5	1
40	Florida	71	2
41	Pittsburgh	71	2
42	Washington State	71	2.5
43	Georgia Tech	70.5	1
44	Michigan	70.5	3.5
45	Minnesota	70.5	2
46	Texas Tech	70.5	2.5
47	Arkansas	69.5	2
48	Michigan State	69.5	2.5
49	Missouri	69.5	2
50	Oklahoma	69.5	3.5
51	UCLA	69.5	2
52	UNLV	69.5	2
53	West Virginia	69.5	3
54	North Carolina	68.5	2.5
55	Virginia	68	2
56	Duke	67.5	3
57	Louisiana-Lafayette	67.5	3
58	Maryland	67.5	2
59	Navy	67	2
60	Nebraska	66.5	2
61	Utah	66.5	3.5
62	Illinois	66	2
63	James Madison	65.5	3.5
64	Texas State	65.5	2
65	Boston College	65	1.5
66	Arizona	64.5	2
67	North Carolina State	64.5	3.5
68	Syracuse	64.5	2.5
69	Houston	64	2
70	Oklahoma State	64	3.5
71	Rutgers	63.5	2
72	Memphis	63	2
73	North Texas	62.5	2
74	Marshall	62	2
75	Florida State	61.5	2
76	Mississippi State	61.5	2
77	Old Dominion	61.5	2
78	Wake Forest	60.5	2.5
79	Colorado State	60	1
80	Jacksonville State	60	2.5
81	Bowling Green	59.5	2
82	Georgia Southern	59.5	2
83	Western Kentucky	59.5	2.5
84	Northwestern	59	1.5
85	South Alabama	59	2.5
86	South Florida	58.5	2
87	Northern Illinois	58	1.5
88	Ohio	58	2
89	Connecticut	57.5	2
90	Stanford	57.5	1
91	Toledo	57.5	2.5
92	Fresno State	57	2.5
93	Rice	57	2
94	UTSA	57	3.5
95	Appalachian State	56.5	2.5
96	East Carolina	56.5	2
97	Liberty	56	3
98	Miami (Ohio)	56	3
99	Nevada	55.5	1.5
100	Sam Houston State	55.5	2
101	Arkansas State	55	2
102	New Mexico	55	1
103	San Jose State	55	2
104	Purdue	54.5	2
105	Troy	54.5	2.5
106	Charlotte	54	1
107	Coastal Carolina	54	2.5
108	Oregon State	54	3.5
109	Louisiana-Monroe	53	2
110	Utah State	53	2
111	Hawai’i	52.5	2
112	Georgia State	52	2
113	San Diego State	52	2
114	Western Michigan	52	2
115	Buffalo	50.5	1
116	Eastern Michigan	50.5	2
117	Florida Atlantic	49.5	2
118	Louisiana Tech	49.5	2
119	Wyoming	49.5	2.5
120	Florida International	49	1
121	Temple	48	2
122	Akron	47.5	1
123	Air Force	47	2.5
124	Central Michigan	47	2
125	Massachusetts	46.5	1
126	UAB	46.5	2.5
127	Southern Mississippi	44.5	2
128	Tulsa	44.5	1
129	Ball State	43	2
130	Middle Tennessee	41.5	2
131	UTEP	41.5	2
132	New Mexico State	39	2.5
133	Kennesaw State	38.5	2
134	Kent State	35.5	2

Here are this week’s Power Ratings adjustments:

Up: Ball State +1, Ohio +3, Northern Illinois +1.5, East Carolina +1.5, Rice +2.5, UCLA +4, Kansas +2.5, Duke +1.5, Liberty +1.5, Utah +1.5, Nevada +1.5, UCF +2, Colorado +3, Marshall +2.5, Mississippi +1.5, South Carolina +2, TCU +1, San Jose State +1.5, Washington State +1, Louisiana +2, Rutgers +1, Maryland +2, Penn State +1, New Mexico State +1.5, Virginia Tech +2, Alabama +3, Hawaii +2.5

Down: Kent State -2, Western Michigan -1.5, Florida Atlantic -2, Memphis -1.5, Iowa -2, Florida -1.5, Iowa State -1.5, Miami (FL) -1.5, Syracuse -2.5, BYU -3, Boise State -1, Southern Miss -1.5, Missouri -3, Georgia -3, Vanderbilt -2, Army -1.5, Oklahoma State -1, Oregon State -2, Arkansas State -1, Minnesota -1, Washington -3, Clemson -3, LSU -4.5, UNLV -2, Purdue -2

Some notes on the biggest movers:

UCLA +4: Another jump for the Bruins, who continue to play really well, much to the surprise of a lot of people.

Ohio +3: I haven’t had a good handle on the MAC all year long, so I’m just playing musical chairs with several teams. My Miami (OH)/Kent State line is seven points short. I don’t think the RedHawks are very good and Kent State is about as low as I usually go. Just a bad conference.

Alabama +3: That was a real backside kicking in Baton Rouge.

Colorado +3: Such a good team this season. Credit to Deion.

LSU -4.5: I had LSU favored last week. Oops.

BYU -3: They’re just getting lucky and getting by at this point.

Missouri -3: The Brady Cook saga is obnoxious, but this team just isn’t very good. Credit to those who called this before the season.

Georgia -3: Carson Beck ain’t it, man. The Bulldogs should upgrade at that position next season and take another run at a title.

Here are my Week 12 College Football Lines

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
11/12	Central Michigan	Toledo	-13
	Western Michigan	Bowling Green	-9.5
	Ball State	Buffalo	-8.5
11/13	Kent State	Miami (OH)	-23.5
	Eastern Michigan	Ohio	-9.5
	Akron	Northern Illinois	-12
11/14	East Carolina	Tulsa	+11
11/15	Wyoming	Colorado State	-11.5
	North Texas	UTSA	+2
	UCLA	Washington	-5.5
	Houston	Arizona	-2.5
11/16	Troy	Georgia Southern	-7
	Coastal Carolina	Marshall	-10
	FAU	Temple	-0.5
	James Madison	Old Dominion	+2
	Texas	Arkansas	+17.5
	Wake Forest	North Carolina	-10.5
	South Florida	Charlotte	+3.5
	Liberty	UMass	+8.5
	Louisiana Tech	Western Kentucky	-12.5
	Baylor	West Virginia	+1
	Tulane	Navy	+5
	Clemson	Pitt	+8.5
	Ohio State	Northwestern	+31
	Arkansas State	Georgia State	+1
	Rutgers	Maryland	-6
	Penn State	Purdue	+27.5
	UL Monroe	Auburn	-21.5
	South Alabama	Louisiana	-11.5
	Washington State	New Mexico	+15
	Kansas	BYU	-1
	FIU	Jacksonville State	-13.5
	Louisville	Stanford	+18
	Sam Houston	Kennesaw State	+15
	Syracuse	Cal	-10
	Hawaii	Utah State	-2.5
	Boston College	SMU	-19.5
	Southern Miss	Texas State	-23
	Tennessee	Georgia	-9
	Missouri	South Carolina	-11
	Cincinnati	Iowa State	-7.5
	Virginia	Notre Dame	-19
	UAB	Memphis	-18.5
	Oregon State	Air Force	+4.5
	Utah	Colorado	-14
	LSU	Florida	+5.5
	Arizona State	Kansas State	-6
	Michigan State	Illinois	+1.5
	Boise State	San Jose State	+19.5
	Nebraska	USC	-10
	Oregon	Wisconsin	+14.5
	New Mexico State	Texas A&M	-43
	San Diego State	UNLV	-19.5

Some games to consider based on the differences between the betting market and my lines

Kent State +30.5 (+23.5) at Miami (OH): Like I said above, I can’t get that high with this game. I just can’t.

UMass +14 (+8.5) vs. Liberty: The Flames have failed to cover against worse teams than this. I don’t think the market knows how to accurately rate them, to be honest.

Colorado -10 (-14) vs. Utah: My power ratings are just a raw number. No situational spots, nothing like that. I like Colorado here and the spot is so good for them.

Arizona State +8.5 (+6) vs. Kansas State: North of a key number here. Maybe Arizona State isn’t as good, but I’ve been upgrading them and downgrading K-State.

Michigan State +3.5 (-1.5) at Illinois: Either I’m wrong or the market is. I feel like a lot of people downgraded Illinois aggressively over the last few weeks. Maybe I did too much.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.