Week 12 College Football Power Ratings:
We’ve made it to the middle of November. The second iteration of the College Football Playoff Rankings will come out this week, but we’ve already seen some top teams lose and others really get tested. Once again, just like last week, these are nothing more than sports talk fodder and should have no bearing on your handicapping at all whatsoever.
However, there is something unquantifiable that we need to start thinking about and that is the mindset of a team. Yes, we consider it on a week-to-week basis anyway, but there will be teams that quit or mail it in from this point forward. Major programs may have no interest in playing in bowl games that are beneath them. Players are always looking for greener pastures and more money in the transfer portal, so business decisions will be made. Athletic departments have coaches on the hot seat and that will not only cause a portal exodus, but could also cause a team to not play as spirited the rest of the way.
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Even though we have a ton of data points, I find my power ratings less and less meaningful over these final few weeks. Motivation cannot be quantified. We don’t know for sure how teams are feeling or how they may react. There are also a lot of injured players that we may or may not know about. So, for me, I still keep my power ratings as part of the process, but I weigh them less than I would earlier in the season.
That being said, I’m still going through the process each week and will keep sharing them until we’re done for the season.
Here are my Week 12 College Football Power Ratings
Rank | Team | PR | HFA |
1 | Ohio State | 90 | 3.5 |
2 | Oregon | 90 | 3.5 |
3 | Texas | 89 | 3.5 |
4 | Georgia | 88.5 | 3 |
5 | Alabama | 86.5 | 3.5 |
6 | Mississippi | 86 | 3.5 |
7 | Penn State | 84 | 3.5 |
8 | Notre Dame | 83.5 | 3.5 |
9 | Indiana | 83 | 1.5 |
10 | Tennessee | 82.5 | 3.5 |
11 | Clemson | 81.5 | 3 |
12 | Miami (Florida) | 81.5 | 2 |
13 | SMU | 81 | 3.5 |
14 | Texas A&M | 79 | 3 |
15 | Colorado | 78.5 | 2 |
16 | LSU | 78.5 | 3.5 |
17 | South Carolina | 78 | 2.5 |
18 | Iowa State | 77 | 2 |
19 | Boise State | 76.5 | 2.5 |
20 | Louisville | 76.5 | 3.5 |
21 | Kansas State | 75.5 | 3.5 |
22 | Kansas | 74.5 | 2 |
23 | USC | 74.5 | 2 |
24 | Virginia Tech | 74.5 | 2 |
25 | Iowa | 74 | 2.5 |
26 | Tulane | 74 | 2 |
27 | Baylor | 73.5 | 2 |
28 | BYU | 73.5 | 2 |
29 | Wisconsin | 73.5 | 2 |
30 | Arizona State | 73 | 2 |
31 | Washington | 73 | 2 |
32 | Auburn | 72.5 | 2 |
33 | California | 72.5 | 2 |
34 | UCF | 72.5 | 3 |
35 | Army | 72 | 2 |
36 | Kentucky | 72 | 2.5 |
37 | TCU | 72 | 2.5 |
38 | Cincinnati | 71.5 | 2 |
39 | Vanderbilt | 71.5 | 1 |
40 | Florida | 71 | 2 |
41 | Pittsburgh | 71 | 2 |
42 | Washington State | 71 | 2.5 |
43 | Georgia Tech | 70.5 | 1 |
44 | Michigan | 70.5 | 3.5 |
45 | Minnesota | 70.5 | 2 |
46 | Texas Tech | 70.5 | 2.5 |
47 | Arkansas | 69.5 | 2 |
48 | Michigan State | 69.5 | 2.5 |
49 | Missouri | 69.5 | 2 |
50 | Oklahoma | 69.5 | 3.5 |
51 | UCLA | 69.5 | 2 |
52 | UNLV | 69.5 | 2 |
53 | West Virginia | 69.5 | 3 |
54 | North Carolina | 68.5 | 2.5 |
55 | Virginia | 68 | 2 |
56 | Duke | 67.5 | 3 |
57 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 67.5 | 3 |
58 | Maryland | 67.5 | 2 |
59 | Navy | 67 | 2 |
60 | Nebraska | 66.5 | 2 |
61 | Utah | 66.5 | 3.5 |
62 | Illinois | 66 | 2 |
63 | James Madison | 65.5 | 3.5 |
64 | Texas State | 65.5 | 2 |
65 | Boston College | 65 | 1.5 |
66 | Arizona | 64.5 | 2 |
67 | North Carolina State | 64.5 | 3.5 |
68 | Syracuse | 64.5 | 2.5 |
69 | Houston | 64 | 2 |
70 | Oklahoma State | 64 | 3.5 |
71 | Rutgers | 63.5 | 2 |
72 | Memphis | 63 | 2 |
73 | North Texas | 62.5 | 2 |
74 | Marshall | 62 | 2 |
75 | Florida State | 61.5 | 2 |
76 | Mississippi State | 61.5 | 2 |
77 | Old Dominion | 61.5 | 2 |
78 | Wake Forest | 60.5 | 2.5 |
79 | Colorado State | 60 | 1 |
80 | Jacksonville State | 60 | 2.5 |
81 | Bowling Green | 59.5 | 2 |
82 | Georgia Southern | 59.5 | 2 |
83 | Western Kentucky | 59.5 | 2.5 |
84 | Northwestern | 59 | 1.5 |
85 | South Alabama | 59 | 2.5 |
86 | South Florida | 58.5 | 2 |
87 | Northern Illinois | 58 | 1.5 |
88 | Ohio | 58 | 2 |
89 | Connecticut | 57.5 | 2 |
90 | Stanford | 57.5 | 1 |
91 | Toledo | 57.5 | 2.5 |
92 | Fresno State | 57 | 2.5 |
93 | Rice | 57 | 2 |
94 | UTSA | 57 | 3.5 |
95 | Appalachian State | 56.5 | 2.5 |
96 | East Carolina | 56.5 | 2 |
97 | Liberty | 56 | 3 |
98 | Miami (Ohio) | 56 | 3 |
99 | Nevada | 55.5 | 1.5 |
100 | Sam Houston State | 55.5 | 2 |
101 | Arkansas State | 55 | 2 |
102 | New Mexico | 55 | 1 |
103 | San Jose State | 55 | 2 |
104 | Purdue | 54.5 | 2 |
105 | Troy | 54.5 | 2.5 |
106 | Charlotte | 54 | 1 |
107 | Coastal Carolina | 54 | 2.5 |
108 | Oregon State | 54 | 3.5 |
109 | Louisiana-Monroe | 53 | 2 |
110 | Utah State | 53 | 2 |
111 | Hawai’i | 52.5 | 2 |
112 | Georgia State | 52 | 2 |
113 | San Diego State | 52 | 2 |
114 | Western Michigan | 52 | 2 |
115 | Buffalo | 50.5 | 1 |
116 | Eastern Michigan | 50.5 | 2 |
117 | Florida Atlantic | 49.5 | 2 |
118 | Louisiana Tech | 49.5 | 2 |
119 | Wyoming | 49.5 | 2.5 |
120 | Florida International | 49 | 1 |
121 | Temple | 48 | 2 |
122 | Akron | 47.5 | 1 |
123 | Air Force | 47 | 2.5 |
124 | Central Michigan | 47 | 2 |
125 | Massachusetts | 46.5 | 1 |
126 | UAB | 46.5 | 2.5 |
127 | Southern Mississippi | 44.5 | 2 |
128 | Tulsa | 44.5 | 1 |
129 | Ball State | 43 | 2 |
130 | Middle Tennessee | 41.5 | 2 |
131 | UTEP | 41.5 | 2 |
132 | New Mexico State | 39 | 2.5 |
133 | Kennesaw State | 38.5 | 2 |
134 | Kent State | 35.5 | 2 |
Here are this week’s Power Ratings adjustments:
Up: Ball State +1, Ohio +3, Northern Illinois +1.5, East Carolina +1.5, Rice +2.5, UCLA +4, Kansas +2.5, Duke +1.5, Liberty +1.5, Utah +1.5, Nevada +1.5, UCF +2, Colorado +3, Marshall +2.5, Mississippi +1.5, South Carolina +2, TCU +1, San Jose State +1.5, Washington State +1, Louisiana +2, Rutgers +1, Maryland +2, Penn State +1, New Mexico State +1.5, Virginia Tech +2, Alabama +3, Hawaii +2.5
Down: Kent State -2, Western Michigan -1.5, Florida Atlantic -2, Memphis -1.5, Iowa -2, Florida -1.5, Iowa State -1.5, Miami (FL) -1.5, Syracuse -2.5, BYU -3, Boise State -1, Southern Miss -1.5, Missouri -3, Georgia -3, Vanderbilt -2, Army -1.5, Oklahoma State -1, Oregon State -2, Arkansas State -1, Minnesota -1, Washington -3, Clemson -3, LSU -4.5, UNLV -2, Purdue -2
Some notes on the biggest movers:
UCLA +4: Another jump for the Bruins, who continue to play really well, much to the surprise of a lot of people.
Ohio +3: I haven’t had a good handle on the MAC all year long, so I’m just playing musical chairs with several teams. My Miami (OH)/Kent State line is seven points short. I don’t think the RedHawks are very good and Kent State is about as low as I usually go. Just a bad conference.
Alabama +3: That was a real backside kicking in Baton Rouge.
Colorado +3: Such a good team this season. Credit to Deion.
LSU -4.5: I had LSU favored last week. Oops.
BYU -3: They’re just getting lucky and getting by at this point.
Missouri -3: The Brady Cook saga is obnoxious, but this team just isn’t very good. Credit to those who called this before the season.
Georgia -3: Carson Beck ain’t it, man. The Bulldogs should upgrade at that position next season and take another run at a title.
Here are my Week 12 College Football Lines
Date | Away Team | Home Team | Line |
11/12 | Central Michigan | Toledo | -13 |
Western Michigan | Bowling Green | -9.5 | |
Ball State | Buffalo | -8.5 | |
11/13 | Kent State | Miami (OH) | -23.5 |
Eastern Michigan | Ohio | -9.5 | |
Akron | Northern Illinois | -12 | |
11/14 | East Carolina | Tulsa | +11 |
11/15 | Wyoming | Colorado State | -11.5 |
North Texas | UTSA | +2 | |
UCLA | Washington | -5.5 | |
Houston | Arizona | -2.5 | |
11/16 | Troy | Georgia Southern | -7 |
Coastal Carolina | Marshall | -10 | |
FAU | Temple | -0.5 | |
James Madison | Old Dominion | +2 | |
Texas | Arkansas | +17.5 | |
Wake Forest | North Carolina | -10.5 | |
South Florida | Charlotte | +3.5 | |
Liberty | UMass | +8.5 | |
Louisiana Tech | Western Kentucky | -12.5 | |
Baylor | West Virginia | +1 | |
Tulane | Navy | +5 | |
Clemson | Pitt | +8.5 | |
Ohio State | Northwestern | +31 | |
Arkansas State | Georgia State | +1 | |
Rutgers | Maryland | -6 | |
Penn State | Purdue | +27.5 | |
UL Monroe | Auburn | -21.5 | |
South Alabama | Louisiana | -11.5 | |
Washington State | New Mexico | +15 | |
Kansas | BYU | -1 | |
FIU | Jacksonville State | -13.5 | |
Louisville | Stanford | +18 | |
Sam Houston | Kennesaw State | +15 | |
Syracuse | Cal | -10 | |
Hawaii | Utah State | -2.5 | |
Boston College | SMU | -19.5 | |
Southern Miss | Texas State | -23 | |
Tennessee | Georgia | -9 | |
Missouri | South Carolina | -11 | |
Cincinnati | Iowa State | -7.5 | |
Virginia | Notre Dame | -19 | |
UAB | Memphis | -18.5 | |
Oregon State | Air Force | +4.5 | |
Utah | Colorado | -14 | |
LSU | Florida | +5.5 | |
Arizona State | Kansas State | -6 | |
Michigan State | Illinois | +1.5 | |
Boise State | San Jose State | +19.5 | |
Nebraska | USC | -10 | |
Oregon | Wisconsin | +14.5 | |
New Mexico State | Texas A&M | -43 | |
San Diego State | UNLV | -19.5 |
Some games to consider based on the differences between the betting market and my lines
Kent State +30.5 (+23.5) at Miami (OH): Like I said above, I can’t get that high with this game. I just can’t.
UMass +14 (+8.5) vs. Liberty: The Flames have failed to cover against worse teams than this. I don’t think the market knows how to accurately rate them, to be honest.
Colorado -10 (-14) vs. Utah: My power ratings are just a raw number. No situational spots, nothing like that. I like Colorado here and the spot is so good for them.
Arizona State +8.5 (+6) vs. Kansas State: North of a key number here. Maybe Arizona State isn’t as good, but I’ve been upgrading them and downgrading K-State.
Michigan State +3.5 (-1.5) at Illinois: Either I’m wrong or the market is. I feel like a lot of people downgraded Illinois aggressively over the last few weeks. Maybe I did too much.
I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.