Week 12 College Football Power Ratings:

We’ve made it to the middle of November. The second iteration of the College Football Playoff Rankings will come out this week, but we’ve already seen some top teams lose and others really get tested. Once again, just like last week, these are nothing more than sports talk fodder and should have no bearing on your handicapping at all whatsoever.

However, there is something unquantifiable that we need to start thinking about and that is the mindset of a team. Yes, we consider it on a week-to-week basis anyway, but there will be teams that quit or mail it in from this point forward. Major programs may have no interest in playing in bowl games that are beneath them. Players are always looking for greener pastures and more money in the transfer portal, so business decisions will be made. Athletic departments have coaches on the hot seat and that will not only cause a portal exodus, but could also cause a team to not play as spirited the rest of the way.

 

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Even though we have a ton of data points, I find my power ratings less and less meaningful over these final few weeks. Motivation cannot be quantified. We don’t know for sure how teams are feeling or how they may react. There are also a lot of injured players that we may or may not know about. So, for me, I still keep my power ratings as part of the process, but I weigh them less than I would earlier in the season.

That being said, I’m still going through the process each week and will keep sharing them until we’re done for the season.

Here are my Week 12 College Football Power Ratings

RankTeamPRHFA
1Ohio State903.5
2Oregon903.5
3Texas893.5
4Georgia88.53
5Alabama86.53.5
6Mississippi863.5
7Penn State843.5
8Notre Dame83.53.5
9Indiana831.5
10Tennessee82.53.5
11Clemson81.53
12Miami (Florida)81.52
13SMU813.5
14Texas A&M793
15Colorado78.52
16LSU78.53.5
17South Carolina782.5
18Iowa State772
19Boise State76.52.5
20Louisville76.53.5
21Kansas State75.53.5
22Kansas74.52
23USC74.52
24Virginia Tech74.52
25Iowa742.5
26Tulane742
27Baylor73.52
28BYU73.52
29Wisconsin73.52
30Arizona State732
31Washington732
32Auburn72.52
33California72.52
34UCF72.53
35Army722
36Kentucky722.5
37TCU722.5
38Cincinnati71.52
39Vanderbilt71.51
40Florida712
41Pittsburgh712
42Washington State712.5
43Georgia Tech70.51
44Michigan70.53.5
45Minnesota70.52
46Texas Tech70.52.5
47Arkansas69.52
48Michigan State69.52.5
49Missouri69.52
50Oklahoma69.53.5
51UCLA69.52
52UNLV69.52
53West Virginia69.53
54North Carolina68.52.5
55Virginia682
56Duke67.53
57Louisiana-Lafayette67.53
58Maryland67.52
59Navy672
60Nebraska66.52
61Utah66.53.5
62Illinois662
63James Madison65.53.5
64Texas State65.52
65Boston College651.5
66Arizona64.52
67North Carolina State64.53.5
68Syracuse64.52.5
69Houston642
70Oklahoma State643.5
71Rutgers63.52
72Memphis632
73North Texas62.52
74Marshall622
75Florida State61.52
76Mississippi State61.52
77Old Dominion61.52
78Wake Forest60.52.5
79Colorado State601
80Jacksonville State602.5
81Bowling Green59.52
82Georgia Southern59.52
83Western Kentucky59.52.5
84Northwestern591.5
85South Alabama592.5
86South Florida58.52
87Northern Illinois581.5
88Ohio582
89Connecticut57.52
90Stanford57.51
91Toledo57.52.5
92Fresno State572.5
93Rice572
94UTSA573.5
95Appalachian State56.52.5
96East Carolina56.52
97Liberty563
98Miami (Ohio)563
99Nevada55.51.5
100Sam Houston State55.52
101Arkansas State552
102New Mexico551
103San Jose State552
104Purdue54.52
105Troy54.52.5
106Charlotte541
107Coastal Carolina542.5
108Oregon State543.5
109Louisiana-Monroe532
110Utah State532
111Hawai’i52.52
112Georgia State522
113San Diego State522
114Western Michigan522
115Buffalo50.51
116Eastern Michigan50.52
117Florida Atlantic49.52
118Louisiana Tech49.52
119Wyoming49.52.5
120Florida International491
121Temple482
122Akron47.51
123Air Force472.5
124Central Michigan472
125Massachusetts46.51
126UAB46.52.5
127Southern Mississippi44.52
128Tulsa44.51
129Ball State432
130Middle Tennessee41.52
131UTEP41.52
132New Mexico State392.5
133Kennesaw State38.52
134Kent State35.52

Here are this week’s Power Ratings adjustments:

Up: Ball State +1, Ohio +3, Northern Illinois +1.5, East Carolina +1.5, Rice +2.5, UCLA +4, Kansas +2.5, Duke +1.5, Liberty +1.5, Utah +1.5, Nevada +1.5, UCF +2, Colorado +3, Marshall +2.5, Mississippi +1.5, South Carolina +2, TCU +1, San Jose State +1.5, Washington State +1, Louisiana +2, Rutgers +1, Maryland +2, Penn State +1, New Mexico State +1.5, Virginia Tech +2, Alabama +3, Hawaii +2.5

Down: Kent State -2, Western Michigan -1.5, Florida Atlantic -2, Memphis -1.5, Iowa -2, Florida -1.5, Iowa State -1.5, Miami (FL) -1.5, Syracuse -2.5, BYU -3, Boise State -1, Southern Miss -1.5, Missouri -3, Georgia -3, Vanderbilt -2, Army -1.5, Oklahoma State -1, Oregon State -2, Arkansas State -1, Minnesota -1, Washington -3, Clemson -3, LSU -4.5, UNLV -2, Purdue -2

Some notes on the biggest movers:

UCLA +4: Another jump for the Bruins, who continue to play really well, much to the surprise of a lot of people.

Ohio +3: I haven’t had a good handle on the MAC all year long, so I’m just playing musical chairs with several teams. My Miami (OH)/Kent State line is seven points short. I don’t think the RedHawks are very good and Kent State is about as low as I usually go. Just a bad conference.

Alabama +3: That was a real backside kicking in Baton Rouge.

Colorado +3: Such a good team this season. Credit to Deion.

LSU -4.5: I had LSU favored last week. Oops.

BYU -3: They’re just getting lucky and getting by at this point.

Missouri -3: The Brady Cook saga is obnoxious, but this team just isn’t very good. Credit to those who called this before the season.

Georgia -3: Carson Beck ain’t it, man. The Bulldogs should upgrade at that position next season and take another run at a title.

Here are my Week 12 College Football Lines

DateAway TeamHome TeamLine
11/12Central MichiganToledo-13
Western MichiganBowling Green-9.5
Ball StateBuffalo-8.5
11/13Kent StateMiami (OH)-23.5
Eastern MichiganOhio-9.5
AkronNorthern Illinois-12
11/14East CarolinaTulsa+11
11/15WyomingColorado State-11.5
North TexasUTSA+2
UCLAWashington-5.5
HoustonArizona-2.5
11/16TroyGeorgia Southern-7
Coastal CarolinaMarshall-10
FAUTemple-0.5
James MadisonOld Dominion+2
TexasArkansas+17.5
Wake ForestNorth Carolina-10.5
South FloridaCharlotte+3.5
LibertyUMass+8.5
Louisiana TechWestern Kentucky-12.5
BaylorWest Virginia+1
TulaneNavy+5
ClemsonPitt+8.5
Ohio StateNorthwestern+31
Arkansas StateGeorgia State+1
RutgersMaryland-6
Penn StatePurdue+27.5
UL MonroeAuburn-21.5
South AlabamaLouisiana-11.5
Washington StateNew Mexico+15
KansasBYU-1
FIUJacksonville State-13.5
LouisvilleStanford+18
Sam HoustonKennesaw State+15
SyracuseCal-10
HawaiiUtah State-2.5
Boston CollegeSMU-19.5
Southern MissTexas State-23
TennesseeGeorgia-9
MissouriSouth Carolina-11
CincinnatiIowa State-7.5
VirginiaNotre Dame-19
UABMemphis-18.5
Oregon StateAir Force+4.5
UtahColorado-14
LSUFlorida+5.5
Arizona StateKansas State-6
Michigan StateIllinois+1.5
Boise StateSan Jose State+19.5
NebraskaUSC-10
OregonWisconsin+14.5
New Mexico StateTexas A&M-43
San Diego StateUNLV-19.5

Some games to consider based on the differences between the betting market and my lines

Kent State +30.5 (+23.5) at Miami (OH): Like I said above, I can’t get that high with this game. I just can’t.

UMass +14 (+8.5) vs. Liberty: The Flames have failed to cover against worse teams than this. I don’t think the market knows how to accurately rate them, to be honest.

Colorado -10 (-14) vs. Utah: My power ratings are just a raw number. No situational spots, nothing like that. I like Colorado here and the spot is so good for them.

Arizona State +8.5 (+6) vs. Kansas State: North of a key number here. Maybe Arizona State isn’t as good, but I’ve been upgrading them and downgrading K-State.

Michigan State +3.5 (-1.5) at Illinois: Either I’m wrong or the market is. I feel like a lot of people downgraded Illinois aggressively over the last few weeks. Maybe I did too much.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.