Week 12 College Football Predictions
I can’t believe we’re approaching Thanksgiving already, which signals that the college football regular season will be over before we know it. Thankfully with the expanded playoff, we still have games through mid-January, but those Saturdays still aren’t quite the same. The headliner for Week 12 is Texas at Georgia, but Alabama vs Oklahoma is a huge game for the SEC, USC/Iowa has potential Big Ten title game ramifications for USC, and Navy vs. South Florida is a big one in the AAC this week. As always, TSI’s got projections on every game, so let’s see where there’s some early week indicated value:
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T-Score Index, a full explanation can be found here.
Louisville vs. Clemson (+3.5), O/U 51.5
Talk about looking ahead; Louisville lost outright to Cal last week as big favorites, probably with their minds getting a little ahead of themselves in anticipation of this Clemson game they had on deck. Clemson took care of Florida State to get back in the win column and will look to build off of that as they take on Jeff Brohm’s team on the road. TSI projects Louisville as just a half-point favorite here, and I don’t expect the hook on this three will be around long this week, so let’s grab it while we can. The market estimated formula is also around 1.5, so that’s about where I expect it to close. Clemson has advantages in opponent-adjusted net yards per play, net red zone scoring and net touchdown rate, while these teams are basically even in opponent-adjusted net points per play, net success rate, and net points per game. I’m rolling with the Tigers here.
College Football Pick: Clemson +3.5
Georgia vs. Texas (+6), O/U 47.5
This is clearly the game of the weekend and will go a long way in determining SEC standings and CFP rankings. Georgia took care of business admirably against Mississippi State on the road in Starksville last week but now take on the Longhorns, who seem to have found their stride a little bit after losing to Florida last month on the road. TSI projects Georgia -3 here, and the market is moving in Texas’s favor as well. Texas might not be the juggernaut some of us thought they’d be this year, but they’re showing resiliency and have been good on defense all year but now the offense is starting to find some rhythm. Texas holds opponent-adjusted statistical advantages in net yards per play, net points per play, and net red zone scoring. Georgia holds slight advantages in net touchdown rate and points per game, while holding a sizeable advantage in success rate. Overall, the numbers tell me these teams are much closer than this six-point spread indicates, so I’m going to take the points with the Longhorns.
College Football Pick: Texas +6
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