Week 12 College Football
Welcome to the Week 12 edition of “TSI vs the Field”, my weekly article where I take a look at the college football slate through the lens of my proprietary college football model, the T Shoe Index, and compare and contrast where other respected predictive models – SP+, FPI, and Sagarin – align and disagree on the college football schedule. There are Week 12 college football betting opportunities based on model alignment and games where it may be best to proceed with caution or stay away if the projections vary too much.
Note: SP+ Rankings are the work of CFB analyst Bill Connelly (ESPN), FPI is the Football Power Index from ESPN Analytics, and Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, formerly of USA Today.
Week 12 College Football Model Alignment
Model Consensus
Arizona State (-11) vs West Virginia, O/U 48.5
Arizona State is coming off a big win against Iowa State, 24-19, on the road in Ames after previously dropping a game at home to Houston. The Sun Devils are 3-2 straight up in their last five and 2-2-1 ATS. West Virginia will be making the trek west to attempt to win its third game in a row, as they’ve won and covered in back-to-back games.
The model average projection on this game is Arizona State -12.5 with a variance of just 2.1 points. TSI is in line with the market, projecting ASU -11, but the other three models all indicate the Sun Devils should cover this number, all projecting ASU -13. It makes sense TSI is a tad lower because it incorporates recent games a little more heavily than the others, from what I’ve inferred, so the two-point difference lies in WVU coming alive lately, but I do think this is a tall ask to head to Arizona from Morgantown after winning two straight for a team that doesn’t have great depth and has dealt with some injuries (not that ASU hasn’t).
College Football Pick: Arizona State -11
Miami (-15) vs NC State, O/U 55.5
I think a lot of people have maybe written Miami off after a couple close losses to Louisville and SMU, but this is still a team with a ton of talent and a ton to play for – although they’ll need some help to ultimately reach their ACC and CFP goals. This line opened at 15, dipped down after some NC State money but has risen back up and is heading towards 16, indicating late-week buying on Miami.
Our model average projection on this game is Miami -16.5 with a variance of just 2.2 points. FPI is right at the market number of 15, but TSI, SP+ and Sagarin all call for a Hurricanes’ cover here, between 16.5 and 17 points in favor of Miami. NC State is just 1-3 ATS on the road and 1-3 ATS as an underdog this season. I’d lay under 16 with Miami.
College Football Pick: Miami -15
Model Disagreement
Florida State (-13.5) vs Virginia Tech, O/U 54.5
Knowing TSI, I am definitely not surprised to see Florida State lead this week’s model disagreements section. I hope my wife loves me as much as TSI has loved Florida State over these last two underachieving years. FSU is just 1-4 straight up and ATS in its last five games, but that’s not stopping TSI from doing all but a war chant for its beloved ‘Noles. To be clear, it’s not like VT is a world-beater, and they are still trying to lock down James Franklin to be the team’s next head coach.
TSI is the strongest proponent of FSU, projecting the Seminoles by 21 here; whereas, FPI is only projecting FSU -11, with SP+ and Sagarin at -18 and -13.5, respectively. Projections all over the place, as expected when you have a team with high preseason expectations, followed by a massive win over Alabama by double digits, followed by complete ineptitude since. Who knows what this Florida State team is. I’m staying away.
Alabama (-6) vs Oklahoma, O/U 45.5
Speaking of Alabama, they find themselves on this week’s model disagreements partially because of their head-scratching performance against Florida State and the subsequent tear they’ve been on since. Oklahoma has also been inconsistent, looking like a national title contender early, only to see QB John Mateer get injured and then lose to Texas in convincing fashion. Both teams have shown great promise and great letdown capability, so let’s see where the models land on this game.
The average projection on this game is Alabama -5.5 with a variance of 9.1 points. SP+ is the lowest projection on the Tide here, making the line just 1.5, while TSI and FPI are close to market at -5 and -6, but then Sagarin has Alabama -10.5. That’s a broad spectrum of potential outcomes from respected models in a game with just a 6-point line. I’ll pass.
Keep an eye out for this weekly feature on Thursdays and also my Monday early-week college football bets.
