Week 13 College Football Odds, Power Ratings and Projections

Week 13 College Football

Week 13 college football is our last chance at MACtion, though that’s probably not the biggest of concerns for everybody. There are some very important games with regards to the College Football Playoff and conference standings that are going to be difficult to handicap. Like I said last week, my ratings are less and less important to me as the season goes along, especially with the injuries, QB changes, and varying motivation levels. I’ve adjusted the best I can for my Week 13 College Football Power Ratings, but we’ll also probably have some starters that we didn’t expect at key positions.

We also saw a few timeshares or quick hooks at the QB position last week. It’s just that time of the year and the NIL and the threat of transferring doesn’t make it any easier on the coaches. So, that truly is a big factor, but another is that we’ll have some line inflation this week and next, as some teams are looking for style points, some are in “must-win” situations, and others clearly have nothing to play for and may have even given the appearance of quitting.

The ones that get me the most are the teams that are sitting on four or five wins and must either win out or win one of the next two weeks for a bowl berth. Are we sure that these teams even want to play in a bowl? Should we really be paying a premium to back teams that are currently 4-6 or 5-5? Clearly, they’re not that good, otherwise they’d have six wins already.

Finally, before posting my 1 through 136, I’ll leave you with this perfect tweet from Parker Fleming to explain the season.

Every college football team this season falls into 1 of 4 buckets:

1: 4-8 team where a couple bounces determined the difference
2: 8-4 team where a couple bounces determined the difference
3: Ohio State
4: UMass

— parker fleming (@statsowar) November 16, 2025

Week 13 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Ohio State	93.5	3.5
2	Indiana	90	2.5
3	Notre Dame	88.5	3
4	Texas A&M	87	2
5	Alabama	86.5	3.5
6	Oregon	86.5	3.5
7	Georgia	86	3
8	Texas Tech	85.5	3
9	Utah	84.5	3
10	Oklahoma	83.5	3
11	Texas	83.5	3.5
12	Miami (Florida)	83	2
13	USC	82.5	3
14	Vanderbilt	82	1.5
15	Mississippi	81.5	3
16	Michigan	79.5	3
17	Iowa	79	3
18	Tennessee	79	3.5
19	Auburn	78	2
20	BYU	78	2
21	Illinois	77	2
22	Missouri	76	3.5
23	Penn State	75	3.5
24	Washington	75	3.5
25	Clemson	74	2.5
26	LSU	74	3.5
27	Kentucky	73.5	2
28	Virginia	73.5	2
29	Arkansas	73	2
30	Florida State	73	2
31	Georgia Tech	73	2
32	Iowa State	73	2
33	Mississippi State	73	2
34	Duke	72.5	3.5
35	Florida	72.5	2
36	Louisville	72.5	3.5
37	South Florida	72	1.5
38	Arizona	71.5	2
39	Arizona State	71.5	2
40	Cincinnati	71.5	1.5
41	Pittsburgh	71.5	2
42	SMU	71.5	3.5
43	North Texas	71	2
44	Houston	70.5	2
45	North Carolina State	70	2
46	Northwestern	70	1.5
47	South Carolina	70	2.5
48	TCU	70	3
49	Baylor	69	2
50	Nebraska	69	2
51	East Carolina	68.5	2
52	James Madison	68.5	3
53	Kansas State	68	3.5
54	Kansas	67.5	2.5
55	Memphis	67.5	2.5
56	Tulane	67.5	2.5
57	San Diego State	67	2
58	Boise State	66	3.5
59	Rutgers	65.5	2
60	West Virginia	65	2
61	UCLA	64.5	2
62	Wisconsin	64.5	2
63	Michigan State	64	2
64	Connecticut	63.5	2.5
65	Purdue	63.5	1
66	Toledo	63.5	3
67	Wake Forest	63.5	2
68	Minnesota	63	2
69	Navy	63	2
70	UCF	63	2
71	Old Dominion	62	1.5
72	New Mexico	61.5	2
73	Army	61	2.5
74	Maryland	61	2
75	Virginia Tech	61	2
76	Hawai’i	60.5	2
77	North Carolina	60.5	2
78	UNLV	60	2.5
79	Temple	59.5	2
80	Washington State	59.5	3
81	California	59	2
82	Utah State	59	2
83	Colorado	58	2
84	UTSA	58	3.5
85	Southern Mississippi	57.5	2
86	Fresno State	57	2
87	Texas State	57	2
88	Kennesaw State	56.5	1.5
89	Ohio	56.5	3.5
90	San Jose State	56.5	2.5
91	Boston College	55.5	2
92	Florida Atlantic	55.5	2
93	Stanford	55.5	1
94	Western Michigan	55.5	2
95	Louisiana-Lafayette	54.5	2
96	Syracuse	54.5	2.5
97	Western Kentucky	54.5	2.5
98	Marshall	52.5	3
99	Miami (Ohio)	52.5	2.5
100	Troy	52.5	3
101	Wyoming	52.5	2
102	Louisiana Tech	52	2
103	South Alabama	52	2
104	Arkansas State	51.5	2
105	Central Michigan	51.5	2
106	Coastal Carolina	51.5	2
107	Tulsa	51.5	1
108	Georgia Southern	51	3.5
109	Oregon State	51	3.5
110	UAB	51	2.5
111	Jacksonville State	50.5	3.5
112	Missouri State	50.5	2
113	Delaware	50	3
114	Liberty	50	3
115	Rice	50	3
116	Air Force	49.5	2
117	Buffalo	49.5	2
118	Colorado State	49.5	2
119	Appalachian State	48	2
120	Oklahoma State	48	2
121	Eastern Michigan	47.5	2
122	Florida International	47.5	2
123	Nevada	47	1
124	UTEP	46	2
125	Middle Tennessee	45.5	2
126	Northern Illinois	45.5	1
127	Akron	44.5	2
128	Bowling Green	44.5	2
129	Louisiana-Monroe	42.5	2
130	New Mexico State	42.5	2.5
131	Georgia State	42	1
132	Kent State	42	1
133	Sam Houston State	42	0.5
134	Ball State	41	2.5
135	Charlotte	36.5	1
136	Massachusetts	28.5	1

Here are my Week 13 power ratings adjustments:

Up: Western Michigan +2, Toledo +2.5, Buffalo +3, Old Dominion +1.5, Georgia Southern +3, East Carolina +2.5, Marshall +1.5, Virginia +3.5, Ohio State +1, North Carolina +1, Eastern Michigan +1.5, Oklahoma +1.5, Texas State +2, Texas Tech +1, Arkansas +1.5, North Texas +2.5, Illinois +1.5, Northwestern +1.5, BYU +3, West Virginia +1.5, Missouri State +1.5, USC +1.5, Western Kentucky +2.5, Washington State +3.5, Kentucky +2.5, Boston College +1.5, Arizona +1.5, New Mexico +1.5, James Madison +1.5, Oklahoma State +3

Down: Miami (OH) -5.5, Troy -2.5, Minnesota -3, App State -1.5, Cincinnati -4, Memphis -1.5, Georgia State -2.5, Georgia Tech -2.5, Virginia Tech -2.5, UCLA -1.5, Wake Forest -1.5, Ball State -1.5, Alabama -1.5, Oregon State -1.5, Southern Miss -2.5, Kansas State -2.5, LSU -2.5, South Alabama -1.5, Maryland -2.5, Arizona State -3.5, UTEP -1.5, San Jose State -2.5, New Mexico State -1.5, Louisiana Tech -1.5, Utah -1, Air Force -7 (Szarka inj.), Charlotte -2.5, UL Monroe -1.5, Wyoming -2.5, UMass -3, UCF -2.5, TCU -3, Louisiana Tech -3, Vanderbilt -2

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Virginia +3.5: The Cavaliers seem more legitimate than I thought. There’s still some turnover luck that might regress, but that was a dominant win over a pretty good Duke team.

Washington State +3.5: I’ve had no idea how to rate the orphans – Wazzu and Oregon State – with such a random schedule, but I was way off on last week’s line and the Cougars covered pretty easily.

BYU +3: Same thing. BYU has had some lucky outcomes, but they’re also still a good team and Bear Bachmeier seems like a pretty solid QB overall with some room to keep improving.

Buffalo +3, Georgia Southern +3, Oklahoma State +3: Just market corrections on poor teams. Seems I got too low on the three of them.

Air Force -7: Liam Szarka is done for the season with a fractured arm. He has accounted for 81.5% of the passing yards and 34% of the rushing yards. Josh Johnson is a massive step down and seven points may not even be enough.

Miami (OH) -5.5: The RedHawks seem to be far worse than I thought, as my lines have been higher than the market’s for a few weeks now.

Cincinnati -4: The Bearcats have been exposed the last two games by Utah and Arizona. Not that it matters in this context, but the film has also not been good for QB Brendan Sorsby.

Arizona State -3.5: This team has been maddening between the injuries and the inconsistent performances. No Sam Leavitt again last week.

My Week 13 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
11/18	UMass	Ohio	-31.5
	Akron	Bowling Green	-2
	Western Michigan	Northern Illinois	+9
11/19	Miami (OH)	Buffalo	+1
	Central Michigan	Kent State	+8.5
11/20	Louisiana	Arkansas State	+1
11/21	Florida State	NC State	+1
	Hawaii	UNLV	-2
11/22	Rutgers	Ohio State	-31.5
	UConn	FAU	+6
	Tulane	Temple	+6
	Marshall	App State	+2.5
	Tulsa	Army	-12
	Oklahoma State	UCF	-17
	Old Dominion	Georgia Southern	+7.5
	Delaware	Wake Forest	-15.5
	BYU	Cincinnati	+5
	Tennessee	Florida	+4.5
	Washington State	James Madison	-12
	Pitt	Georgia Tech	-3.5
	Michigan	Maryland	+16.5
	Duke	North Carolina	+10
	Ball State	Toledo	-25.5
	Nebraska	Penn State	-9.5
	Miami (FL)	Virginia Tech	+20
	Coastal Carolina	South Carolina	-21
	Missouri	Oklahoma	-10.5
	Charlotte	Georgia	-52.5
	TCU	Houston	-2.5
	Colorado State	Boise State	-20
	Kansas State	Utah	-19.5
	Arizona State	Colorado	+11.5
	Nevada	Wyoming	-7.5
	Baylor	Arizona	-4.5
	Cal	Stanford	+2.5
	Arkansas	Texas	-14
	Washington	UCLA	+8.5
	San Jose State	San Diego State	-12.5
	New Mexico State	UTEP	-5.5
	USC	Oregon	-7.5
	Sam Houston	Middle Tennessee	-5.5
	Liberty	Louisiana Tech	-4
	Louisville	SMU	-2.5
	Missouri State	Kennesaw State	-7.5
	Illinois	Wisconsin	+10.5
	North Texas	Rice	+18
	Kansas	Iowa State	-7.5
	South Florida	UAB	+18.5
	UL Monroe	Texas State	-16.5
	Minnesota	Northwestern	-8.5
	Michigan State	Iowa	-18
	East Carolina	UTSA	+7
	Kentucky	Vanderbilt	-10
	Western Kentucky	LSU	-23
	Georgia State	Troy	-13.5
	Southern Miss	South Alabama	+3.5
	Jacksonville State	FIU	+1
	Syracuse	Notre Dame	-37
	New Mexico	Air Force	+10
	Utah State	Fresno State	+4

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

Louisiana +3.5 (-1) at Arkansas State: I don’t know, the Sun Belt is all over the place outside of James Madison, but I feel like Louisiana’s offense is more consistent and the numbers do show that.

NC State +5.5 (+1) vs. Florida State: Florida State’s big YPP numbers on offense are a mirage, with 8.9 YPP against non-conference opponents. The defense is absolutely way better than NC State’s, but I feel like the line’s too high here and my numbers agree.

Texas -10 (-14) vs. Arkansas: These teams are opposites. Arkansas has great offensive numbers and atrocious defensive numbers, while Texas has great defensive numbers and mediocre offensive numbers. They haven’t been interested in winning by margin, so maybe I do have them rated a bit too high.

Iowa State -7.5 (-4) vs. Kansas: Both teams on extra rest, but I’m low on the Jayhawks, whose only Big 12 wins have been West Virginia in a terrible spot, UCF, who is 1-6, and Oklahoma State, who is 0-7. 

New Mexico -10 (-1.5) at Air Force: This is an extremely large overlay for this late in the season, but remember, this would have been New Mexico -3 without an enormous adjustment for Liam Szarka. He really means so much to that Air Force offense. Jason Eck is doing one hell of a job in Albuquerque.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.