A strong case can be made that Week 13 is the hardest one of the college football season to handicap. There are a handful of teams playing much lesser opponents with big spreads and varying motivations. There are a lot of teams that aren’t very good that we have to determine whether or not they are eager to make a bowl game or not. Expect weather to be a factor as well since we’re in the second half of November now. Week 13 odds truly are tough.
As I wrote about in my Week 13 power ratings article, we’re also getting QB changes – either announced or unannounced – and there are a lot of injuries across the nation. We even had one QB, Dequan Finn, tell his Miami RedHawks team that he was sitting out the rest of the season to “prepare for the NFL”. Maybe he meant NFL Europe. Or the UFL. Or CFL. I don’t know. Either way, a lot of things are happening.
Before looking at the lines for this week’s games, let’s take stock of the teams that have either 4 or 5 wins that could see some inflation in their lines this week and next with bowl eligibility hanging in the balance.
5 Wins
- American: Army, Temple, UTSA, Rice
- ACC: Duke, Clemson, NC State, Florida State
- Big 12: Kansas State, Baylor, Kansas
- Big Ten: Northwestern, Rutgers
- C-USA: FIU, Louisiana Tech, Delaware
- MAC: Buffalo, Miami (OH)
- MWC: Utah State
- Pac-12: Washington State
- SEC: Kentucky, Mississippi State
- Sun Belt: Georgia Southern, Marshall, Arkansas State
4 Wins
- American: FAU
- ACC: North Carolina
- Big 12: West Virginia, UCF
- Big Ten: Maryland, Penn State
- C-USA: Liberty
- MAC: Ball State, Kent State, Eastern Michigan (note: Akron is 4-7 and also ineligible for a bowl)
- MWC: Wyoming
- SEC: Auburn
- Sun Belt: App State, Louisiana, Texas State
Again, no guarantees that there are inflated lines or line movements on these teams – and we will see more interest paid to the 5-win teams next week – but just something to keep in mind.
Let’s talk about the Week 13 college football odds.
Check out the DraftKings College Football Betting Splits and Circa College Football Betting Splits to follow line moves all week long!
Week 13 College Football Odds Report
Lines as of Sunday, November 16 at 4:30 p.m. PT
UMass at Ohio (-33, 50.5)
Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET
Bettors seem willing to lay any number against UMass. The Minutemen got obliterated by NIU last week and gave up 45 points to a team that hadn’t scored more than 21 in any other game this season. Ohio opened -29.5 at DraftKings, -31 at Circa, and both numbers got bet up. When all is said and done, I think UMass will be the lowest power-rated FBS team in history.
Minnesota at Northwestern (-4.5, 41.5)
Saturday, Noon ET
Another week, another line move against Minnesota. This has been a weekly occurrence for the last few weeks. The betting market has a vendetta against the Golden Gophers and this week’s benefactor is Northwestern, who played admirably in the Wrigley Field loss to Michigan, but that box score was not all that indicative of how the game went. It doesn’t seem to matter, though, as this line was -3 or -3.5 and has pointed north.
Minnesota-Northwestern Matchup
Ball State at Toledo (-26.5, 47.5)
Saturday, 2 p.m. ET
Totals do enter the equation when it comes to the spread on a game, as a low-scoring expectation often puts a higher premium on points, especially if possessions are likely to be at a minimum. It doesn’t really seem to matter here, as Toledo moved from -23 at Circa to -26, while the rest of the market had -26.5 on Sunday evening. DraftKings was -22.5 on the game at open. Toledo has not been good as a favorite and especially not as a big favorite under Jason Candle, but that hasn’t stopped the early action from being on them.
Marshall (-3.5, 53) at App State
Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET
The boys from Boone will host the Thundering Herd on Saturday in a battle between a five-win Marshall team and a four-win Mountaineers squad. Circa opened -2 on Marshall here, but that didn’t seem to be enough, as the Herd moved up to 3.5 there and mirrored the rest of the market. There was also a little bit of initial Over money on the board, as Circa’s 53 was the lowest number on the board as of Sunday evening. Marshall definitely has the more dynamic QB and better offense, so we’ll see where this line goes.
UConn (-7, 67) at FAU
Saturday, 3 p.m. ET
The Huskies are taking money for their trip down the Atlantic coast to Boca Raton. Circa opened 5.5 on this one and went up to the key number quickly. Fanduel and DraftKings both had 7.5 at various times. Circa was the only book that took a little bit more of an aggressive position on the Owls, as FAU does need two wins for bowl eligibility and they have played some very good teams of late.
USC at Oregon (-9.5, 60)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Setting this line between 7 and 10 felt like an exercise in letting bettors tell the oddsmakers where to go. Oregon opened 7.5 at DraftKings and 8 at Circa. Moving between 7.5 and 9.5 doesn’t take a ton of money one way or the other, but it did feel like a good way to see which side would take the early money. To this point, it’s been on the Ducks. But, 9.5 was also a stopping point. Will 10 be too much? Is that the buy point on USC? I think we may see a sportsbook or two go there just to see if a line in the water attracts a nibble.
Michigan (-13.5, 45.5) at Maryland
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET
A lackluster performance from the Wolverines at Wrigley Field had an impact on the opening line for the game against Maryland, but bettors felt like the opener was a bit low. Circa opened -10 on this one, while DraftKings was at -11.5. Interestingly, based on the odds history, Michigan got as low as -10.5 at Fanduel, but now they’ve moved up as well. Maryland gave a vote of confidence to Mike Locksley over the weekend, but that hasn’t seemed to move the needle in the minds of many.
TCU at Houston (-2.5, 54.5)
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET
If you’ve followed this article at all throughout the season, you know how intriguing these lines are that are hanging just below a key number. How quickly will the sportsbooks move to -3 in a scenario like this? Is that a buy point on the underdog? Is 3.5 the buy point? Is hanging below 2.5 a sign of impending underdog money? There are a lot of potential layers to lines on 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, etc. and that makes these lines worth watching closely.
BYU (-2.5, 54) at Cincinnati
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
One of the more compelling games of the week, as the Bearcats have not played well at all in the last two games, but many feel like BYU is overrated and is a big regression candidate. Let’s see if (when?) this line goes to the key number of 3. I feel like it’s probably inevitable, whether that’s the true position of influential bettors or not. Circa opened this one -2 and it has threatened -3 at most places since. DraftKings opened -1.5 here. The total has also been bet up a tiny bit as well.
Keep an eye out for more line movements by tracking our VSiN College Football Betting Splits.
