College Football Picks
With another round of College Football Playoff Rankings out and only two weeks left of the regular season, there are storylines all over this place this week. A lot of SEC teams in the CFP mix are taking their annual “breather” by playing lesser teams, but it is business as usual for most of the FBS programs. Week 13 college football picks can be a little bit tricky, though.
I mentioned in my Opening Line Report this week that there are several teams with five wins that need another dub for bowl eligibility and others with four wins that need to win out, however, we don’t know how motivated each individual team is. Sometimes those lines get inflated with a “must-win” situation, but you may just be paying a premium on a middling team with no significant motivation. Be wary of those things and others in Week 13.
These are my favorite Week 13 college football picks, but we have many others. You can check out our Week 13 College Football Hub to see what others are taking and also to explore all of our college football tools, power ratings, and more. See our College Football Pro Picks page for more from my colleagues and broadcast guests.
Here are my Week 13 College Football Picks:
Odds as of Wednesday, November 19, 3:00 p.m. PT
Louisville at SMU (-2.5, 53)
Noon, ET
An 11 a.m. local time kick in Dallas between Louisville and SMU starts the day for me, as the Mustangs still have a route into the ACC Championship Game. It isn’t an ideal path by any means, but they do have a shot with their lone loss coming against Wake Forest.
Louisville suffered a big setback last week in the last-second loss to Clemson and you have to wonder about their mindset here, as the rivalry game in the state of Kentucky comes next week against the Wildcats. Even though Jeff Brohm is a QB whisperer and he brought in what was thought to be a strong transfer in Miller Moss, the running game with Isaac Brown has driven the bus for this Louisville bunch.
Unfortunately, SMU is one of the nation’s top run defenses, checking in at 11th in EPA/play against the rush. The Mustangs also have 32 sacks on the season, so they’ve been able to get after the QB. The defensive line is truly the strength of this unit and likely to be a problem for the Cardinals. Moss has only taken one sack in four of the last five games, but Virginia, a team that ranks tied for 15th with 28 sacks, got to Moss five times earlier this season.
After a bit of a slow start to the season at 2-2, Rhett Lashlee’s only setback was a 13-12 loss to Wake Forest in a weird game. Otherwise, his team has been very good and QB Kevin Jennings is a trusted, reliable veteran and the Mustangs have averaged 12.4 yards per reception while generating some big plays in the passing game.
I think this line is mispriced. SMU is better in conference in both yards per play on offense and defense. Louisville has played two difficult losses in their last two games, one in overtime and one at the final buzzer in regulation. The Mustangs also match up better than most run defenses that the Cardinals have seen.
Pick: SMU -2.5 (-115)
TCU at Houston (-1.5, 54.5)
4 p.m. ET
Lone Star State bragging rights and maybe some recruiting headwinds are on the line between TCU and Houston. The Cougars are on extra rest as they strive to win 10 games for the first time since 2021. This is already a massive turnaround from Willie Fritz, as his first year resulted in a 4-8 record, so the Cougars have doubled their win total.
TCU, meanwhile, seems to be limping towards the end of the season. They’ve dropped two in a row and got hammered by BYU last week, as the Big 12’s other Cougars rebounded from a loss to Texas Tech in resounding fashion. The Horned Frogs outgained Iowa State by 160 yards, but lost 20-17 two games ago and it felt like there was some residual carryover for last week’s game, as they failed to get to 300 yards in the 44-13 loss.
QB Josh Hoover has thrown four interceptions over the last two games and now has four games with two picks against Big 12 foes. He’s likely to head to the NFL after this season, which means there could be some more business decisions in his future.
Houston has had some time to clean things up and they’ve needed to. The Cougars have turned it over eight times in their last two games. A breather and a chance to refocus should help them, as they only had four turnovers in their first eight games. As long as they take care of the ball here, they should take care of business.
Pick: Houston -1.5
BYU (-2.5, 55) at Cincinnati
8 p.m. ET
It has been a tough few weeks for the Bearcats. Hopes were running very high with a 5-0 start to Big 12 play, but their College Football Playoff dreams have effectively been dashed with back-to-back losses to Utah and Arizona. The Utah loss spoke for itself as a 45-14 beatdown, but the Arizona game, which looks close on the surface at 30-24, but once Arizona woke up, they outscored Cincy 23-10 over the final three quarters and outgained them 475-344.
It has been a rough three weeks for Brendan Sorsby, who has gone 39-for-82 for 486 yards and a 4/3 TD/INT ratio. Sorsby has thrown three interceptions in his last two games after only throwing one pick in the season opener against Nebraska and nothing after that. I’m not sure if Sorsby’s hurt, if the Bearcats are regressing, or what, but he’s only completed 13, 11, and 15 passes in his last three games.
Cincinnati has rushed for six yards per carry this season, with 5.9 from Sorsby, but Tawee Walker is the top rusher and he’s only had more than 12 carries in a game three times, so it’s not like he’s a bellcow kind of back to offset the load on the passing game.
I’ve been down on BYU because of some of their wins, but they’ve averaged five yards per carry and Bear Bachmeier has only thrown four interceptions. This is a top-30 defense for the season, due in large part to non-conference play, but even with 5.5 yards per play allowed in conference action, that’s still better than Cincinnati, who has allowed over six yards per play.
Cincinnati’s season seems to be slipping away, while BYU played a very complete game against TCU to bounce back from the Texas Tech loss. I have this one BYU -5 in my Week 13 College Football Power Ratings.
Pick: BYU -2.5
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