Week 13 College Football Power Ratings:

There are only two weeks left in the college football regular season. Weeks 13 and 14 send us into Week 15, which will be the conference championship weekend. It is a tough time of the year because we have data points, power ratings, playoff scenarios, conference championship game scenarios, the push for bowl eligibility, and all of these factors to think about, but we’re missing one thing – a team’s mindset.

For motivated teams looking to reach goals, we don’t really have to guess how they are feeling or what they are thinking. However, unless two of those teams are up against each other, we have to think about an inflated price on the team playing for something and speculate as to whether or not the other team is still engaged.

 

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Coaches are getting fired. Players are thinking about their next steps, whether that means graduation or moving on in the transfer portal. But, bad teams still show some fight. Look at what Kennesaw State did last week. We saw upwards of a nine-point line move after they fired Brian Bohannon and had several players opt out of the season to transfer. They almost beat Sam Houston State, a team with a ton to play for in the Conference USA standings.

Stanford, with no bowl aspirations, beat Louisville. Western Kentucky, with a lot to lose in the C-USA race, lost at home to Louisiana Tech. Jacksonville State nearly lost to FIU with slim bowl hopes.

But then there are other teams, like Charlotte, who gave up 45 second-half points to South Florida. Southern Miss lost 58-3 to Texas State with an interim head coach. UAB got throttled by Memphis with potentially a new head coach coming. It is a true case-by-case basis trying to figure out the psychology of teams that aren’t vying for something special, so you have to venture into the unknown more than usual with college football at this time of the year.

Here are my Week 13 College Football Power Ratings

RankTeamPRHFA
1Ohio State903.5
2Oregon903.5
3Georgia88.53
4Texas87.53.5
5Alabama86.53.5
6Mississippi863.5
7Notre Dame84.53.5
8Penn State843.5
9Indiana831.5
10Tennessee82.53.5
11Clemson81.53
12Miami (Florida)81.52
13SMU813.5
14Colorado802
15Texas A&M793
16South Carolina782.5
17Iowa State772
18LSU763.5
19Tulane75.52
20Auburn752
21Boise State752.5
22Kansas74.52
23Louisville74.53.5
24Virginia Tech74.52
25Iowa742.5
26Kansas State743.5
27Baylor73.52
28Wisconsin73.52
29Arizona State732
30Washington732
31Florida72.52
32UCF72.53
33Army722
34Kentucky722.5
35TCU722.5
36USC722
37BYU71.52
38Cincinnati71.52
39Vanderbilt71.51
40California712
41Pittsburgh712
42UNLV712
43Georgia Tech70.51
44Michigan70.53.5
45Minnesota70.52
46Texas Tech70.52.5
47Arkansas69.52
48Missouri69.52
49Oklahoma69.53.5
50UCLA69.52
51Washington State69.52.5
52North Carolina68.52.5
53Texas State682
54Virginia682
55Duke67.53
56Illinois67.52
57West Virginia67.53
58Nebraska66.52
59Utah66.53.5
60Maryland662
61Syracuse662.5
62James Madison65.53.5
63Rutgers65.52
64Boston College651.5
65Louisiana-Lafayette653
66Arizona64.52
67Navy64.52
68North Carolina State64.53.5
69Michigan State642.5
70Houston642
71Oklahoma State643.5
72Memphis632
73Marshall622
74Florida State61.52
75Mississippi State61.52
76Old Dominion61.52
77South Alabama61.52.5
78North Texas60.52
79Wake Forest60.52.5
80Colorado State601
81Jacksonville State602.5
82Stanford601
83UTSA603.5
84Bowling Green59.52
85New Mexico591
86Northwestern591.5
87Ohio592
88South Florida58.52
89San Jose State58.52
90East Carolina582
91Miami (Ohio)583
92Northern Illinois581.5
93Western Kentucky582.5
94Connecticut57.52
95Georgia Southern57.52
96Toledo57.52.5
97Fresno State572.5
98Rice572
99Appalachian State56.52.5
100Liberty563
101Nevada55.51.5
102Sam Houston State55.52
103Arkansas State552
104Troy54.52.5
105Charlotte541
106Coastal Carolina542.5
107Louisiana-Monroe532
108Utah State532
109Hawai’i52.52
110Oregon State52.53.5
111Georgia State522
112Louisiana Tech522
113San Diego State522
114Purdue51.52
115Eastern Michigan50.52
116Air Force50.52.5
117Western Michigan502
118Wyoming49.52.5
119Florida International491
120Florida Atlantic482
121Temple482
122Akron47.51
123Buffalo47.51
124UAB46.52.5
125Massachusetts44.51
126Ball State442
127Central Michigan432
128Tulsa431
129Middle Tennessee41.52
130New Mexico State41.52.5
131UTEP41.52
132Southern Mississippi402
133Kennesaw State35.52
134Kent State31.52

Here are this week’s Power Ratings adjustments:

Up: Ball State +1, Miami (OH) +2, Ohio +1, East Carolina +1.5, UTSA +3, Louisiana Tech +2.5, Tulane +1.5, Rutgers +2, Auburn +2.5, South Alabama +2.5, New Mexico +4, Stanford +2.5, Syracuse +1.5, Texas State +2.5, Notre Dame +1, Air Force +3.5, Colorado +1.5, Florida +1.5, Illinois +1.5, San Jose State +3.5, New Mexico State +2.5, UNLV +1.5

Down: Central Michigan -4, Western Michigan -2, Buffalo -3, Kent State -4, Tulsa -1.5, Georgia Southern -2, Florida Atlantic -1.5, Texas -1.5, UMass -2, Western Kentucky -1.5, West Virginia -2, Navy -2.5, Maryland -1.5, Purdue -3, Louisiana -2.5, Washington State -1.5, BYU -2, Louisville -2, Kennesaw State -3, Cal -1.5, Southern Miss -4.5, Oregon State -1.5, LSU -2.5, Kansas State -1.5, Michigan State -5.5, Boise State -1.5, USC -2.5, North Texas -2

Injury: Navy -6 (Horvath), Pitt -5 (Holstein) – if out

Here are my Week 13 College Football Lines

DateAway TeamHome TeamLine
11/19Western MichiganCentral Michigan+5
AkronKent State+14
Northern IllinoisMiami (OH)-3
11/20OhioToledo-1
BuffaloEastern Michigan-5
11/21NC StateGeorgia Tech-7
11/22TempleUTSA-15.5
PurdueMichigan State-15
UNLVSan Jose State+10.5
11/23Georgia SouthernCoastal Carolina+1
SMUVirginia+11
Pitt (w/ Holstein)Louisville-7
Sam HoustonJacksonville State-7
Wake ForestMiami (FL)-23
UCFWest Virginia+2
Bowling GreenBall State+13.5
North CarolinaBoston College+2
Virginia TechDuke+4
ColoradoKansas+3.5
MississippiFlorida+11.5
MarshallOld Dominion-1.5
UConnSyracuse-11
CharlotteFAU+4
TulsaSouth Florida-17.5
James MadisonApp State+6.5
WisconsinNebraska+5
Penn StateMinnesota+11.5
IowaMaryland+6
IndianaOhio State-10.5
IllinoisRutgersPK
NorthwesternMichigan-15
UMassGeorgia-47
Western KentuckyLiberty-1
UTEPTennessee-44.5
Iowa StateUtah+7
San Diego StateUtah State-3
BYUArizona State-3.5
New Mexico StateMiddle Tennessee-2
StanfordCal-13
Air ForceNevada-6.5
FIUKennesaw State+11.5
TroyLouisiana-13.5
ArizonaTCU-10
MissouriMississippi State+6
South AlabamaSouthern Miss+19.5
CincinnatiKansas State-6
KentuckyTexas-19
Texas TechOklahoma State+3
East CarolinaNorth Texas-4.5
Georgia StateTexas State-18
RiceUAB+8
Louisiana TechArkansas-19.5
Texas A&MAuburn+2
BaylorHouston+7.5
UL MonroeArkansas State-4
USCUCLA+0.5
VanderbiltLSU-8
Boise StateWyoming+23
Washington StateOregon State+13.5
ArmyNotre Dame (N – Bronx)-12.5
AlabamaOklahoma+13.5
Colorado StateFresno State+0.5

Some games to consider based on the differences between the betting market and my lines

Eastern Michigan -2 (-5) vs. Buffalo: Buyer beware with the MAC numbers. This conference is terrible and my ratings have not been strong. That said, Buffalo’s allowing a ton of points and Chris Creighton should have the coaching edge here. Three of EMU’s four losses are to the stronger teams in the conference.

UNLV -7.5 (-10.5) at San Jose State: I haven’t been able to accurately pin down San Jose State most of the season and had to make a big adjustment to them this week to get this line close. Tough spot for UNLV with Nevada on deck in the rivalry game, but they’re clearly the better team.

Wisconsin +2 (-5) vs. Nebraska: I don’t like either one of these teams, but Nebraska’s been pretty awful for a while now and the Dana Holgorsen change didn’t really do much for them.

Cincinnati +8.5 (+6) at Kansas State: Cincinnati is struggling, but Kansas State is pretty much out of it in the Big 12 now after the home loss to Arizona State. The offense has been bad the last two weeks, though they did play in a deluge in Houston. Still, I don’t think they’ve been great.

UCLA +5 (+0.5) vs. USC: USC beat Nebraska, but Jayden Maiava threw a pick-six and put the ball at risk. UCLA is one of the most improved teams in the nation based on what we expected coming into the campaign. The defense played well against Washington with 5.3 YPP allowed and two takeaways. I think they’re a live underdog.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.

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