Week 13 College Football Predictions
Don’t look now, but “Rivalry Week” is on the horizon. We’ve reached Week 13, which means we’re just a week out from The Game, The Iron Bowl, and all the rest of the amazing rivalries that define the sport of college football. That’s always a chaotic-in-a-good-way kind of week, but first, we have to try to gauge where teams’ mentalities might be in this huge lookahead spot for so many teams. There aren’t really any jaw-dropping matchups this week, so we’ll do our best to grin and bear it while we wait for the main entree next week before bowl season and the CFP come shortly after. My betting volume will be significantly down on college football these next two weeks, as historically, the unquantifiable nature of these last two weeks of the regular season has thrown me for a loop, so I’ll be especially careful this time around. Here are a couple early week plays I do like, courtesy of the T Shoe Index:
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T-Score Index, a full explanation can be found here.
Louisiana Tech (-1) vs. Liberty, O/U 45.5
I’m not sure anyone predicted the fall-off of Liberty this season, but holy cow… they’re just 4-6 straight up and 3-7 ATS. Louisiana Tech is 6-4 straight up and ATS, but 4-1 ATS at home this season. TSI projects Tech -5.5 here, which is also where my market estimated formula stands. We’re getting a ton of value on this line, so I’d play it up to 3. Louisiana Tech has advantages in all 6 opponent-adjusted stats that I consider – net yards per play, net points per play, net touchdown %, net red zone scoring, net success rate, and net points per game. They should own this game, so this one is a no-brainer for me, based on the data.
College Football Pick: Louisiana Tech -1
Air Force vs. New Mexico (-2), O/U 58.5
TSI projects New Mexico -4 in this game, and actually makes it -5.5 using just the last three games to see how these teams are trending. The Falcons are just 4-6 ATS overall and 1-4 ATS at home, perhaps indicating an overvalued home field advantage, which makes sense considering it’s not a big, raucous college atmosphere like going to Texas A&M or something, obviously. The Lobos have fared well on the road, going 3-2 ATS this season. New Mexico holds massive advantages in five of the six categories, with Air Force only holding an advantage in opponent-adjusted, net red zone scoring. Net yards per play and net points per play are huge advantages for New Mexico in this game, indicating you could see them hit some chunk plays against this porous Air Force defense.
College Football Pick: New Mexico -2
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