Week 14 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:

Happy Thanksgiving week to everyone except Dan Hurley, who coached UConn to a last-place finish in the Maui Invitational and handled it like a sore loser. It’s hard to go to Hawaii and be miserable, yet Hurley pulled it off. But that’s college basketball. I have returned from Maui, and this is a college football column. It’s rivalry week, with all sorts of playoff implications on the line, and here are my seven Week 14 college football best bets for Saturday:

 

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Tennessee (-11) at Vanderbilt

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET

The stakes are much higher for the Volunteers, who could host a first-round playoff game with a win or miss the playoffs with a loss. Tennessee will lean heavily on Dylan Sampson, one of the nation’s top running backs who has 22 touchdowns. The Commodores, 6-5 and going bowling, will be motivated to play spoiler. Veteran quarterback Diego Pavia is a junkyard dog who sets the tone for Vanderbilt, which is 7-1 ATS as a ‘dog and has only one loss by more than seven points this season. Tennessee likely escapes with the win in a tight game.

Week 14 College Football Best Bet: Vanderbilt +11

Illinois (-7.5) at Northwestern

Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET

A year ago, David Braun worked a miracle by coaching the Purple ‘Cats to a Las Vegas Bowl win. Braun is actually overachieving again this season by coaching Northwestern to a 4-7 record. The Wildcats have won seven of the past 10 against the Fighting Illini, including a 45-43 shootout in Champaign last year. This will not be a shootout on a cold day at Wrigley Field. Illinois (8-3) has found ways to win the close games, with overtime victories over Nebraska and Purdue, and this should be low scoring and ugly.

Week 14 College Football Best Bet: Northwestern +7.5

Arizona State (-9) at Arizona

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET

Kenny Dillingham went 3-9 in his first season as Arizona State coach and has turned it around to 9-2 this season. Freshman quarterback Sam Leavitt keys the offense, but senior running back Cam Skattebo provides the horsepower. Skattebo has rushed for 147 yards or more in five games. It was a combination of chaos and pandemonium last week in Tempe, where fans stormed the field to celebrate the Sun Devils’ victory over BYU. This is a situational play against the road favorite in a rivalry. Arizona State has a lot to lose, and Arizona can play loose. The Wildcats are capable offensively, led by quarterback Noah Fifita and wideout Tetairoa McMillan, and see a chance to salvage something from a lost season.

Week 14 College Football Best Bet: Arizona +9

Notre Dame (-7.5) at USC

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET

Since the embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois on Sept. 7, the Fighting Irish are 9-0 with eight wins by double digits and an average winning margin of 32.5 points. The Notre Dame defense ranks No. 2 in the nation in scoring (11.6 ppg). Riley Leonard has improved as a passer, and Riley and running back Jeremiyah Love have combined for 27 rushing touchdowns. Still, this will be a step up in competition and it will be the Irish’s first true road game since Sept. 14. USC is 6-5 with each of the losses by seven points or fewer. Trojans coach Lincoln Riley has had a bad year, but the truth is his team has been in every game in the fourth quarter.

Week 14 College Football Best Bet: USC +7.5

Texas (-5.5) at Texas A&M

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET

My affinity for home ‘dogs in rivalry games must be obvious, so here’s another one. Texas A&M coach Mike Elko is set to throw everything he’s got at the Longhorns, who are clearly more talented yet will be walking into a beehive at Kyle Field. Elko’s offense has been better in recent weeks behind freshman quarterback Marcel Reed and running back Amari Daniels. The Longhorns have played only two SEC road games, winning by three at Vanderbilt and by 10 at Arkansas, leaving coach Steve Sarkisian 1-4 ATS in his past five as a road favorite in league play. Texas is getting its toughest road test, so laying more than a field goal is asking a lot. The winner will face Georgia in the SEC title game, and I’ll predict the Longhorns win this by three.

Week 14 College Football Best Bet: Texas A&M +5.5

Nevada at UNLV (-17.5)

Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET

In eight games with Hajj-Malik Williams as the quarterback, UNLV has averaged 38 points, and two of those games were played in the rain at Hawaii and San Jose State. While the Rebels can score and strike quickly, their defense has been burned through the air. Dual-threat quarterback Brendon Lewis missed some time with a head injury, but he’s back and can help the Wolf Pack score enough to push this Over the total.

Week 14 College Football Best Bet: Nevada-UNLV Over 55

New Mexico (-3) at Hawaii

Saturday, 11:00 p.m, ET

I typically play the home ‘dog in Honolulu, but lean here to the Lobos, who are 5-6 and chasing bowl eligibility. New Mexico quarterback Devon Dampier has accounted for 3,657 total yards, including 1,065 on the ground, and 28 total touchdowns. Dampier is a playmaker, and Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schager will cut it loose in his career finale. The Lobos have been in some shootouts with scores of 50-40, 52-37, 50-45, 49-45 and 38-35, so bet on the last game of the night to be a wild one.

Week 14 College Football Best Bet: New Mexico-Hawaii Over 61.5

Last week: 3-2 against the spread
Season: 34-30-2

For more college football Week 14 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 14 hub, exclusively on VSiN.

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