Week 14 College Football Odds, Power Ratings and Projections

Week 14 College Football

The final week of the college football regular season has arrived. Thirteen weeks worth of data points have come down to this week, where it can be an extremely high-variance environment. Some teams will go out there and give a real effort. Others will not. We saw a lot of QB changes last week and a number of inexperienced QBs maybe making their second or third starts. These teams look so much different heading into the Week 14 College Football Power Ratings than they did two or three weeks ago, let alone 13 weeks ago.

This week, we have the added challenge of looking at five-win teams vs. teams with no bowl prospects and rivalry games. Some say you can throw the records out for rivalry games. I disagree, but I understand the sentiment. If you’ve had a long, rough season, but can cap it off with a win over a rival, especially in a spoiler capacity, there’s something to be said about doing that. It gives the program a little bit of momentum going into the offseason…when the roster will look different anyway.

We also have a ton of head coaching jobs open already, will have more after the season, and a lot of interest in some of the better mid-major coaches who will level up and leave openings at their current employers. In other words, my power ratings factor less into the equation for me this week than any other week of the regular season.

That said, I can’t go without doing them and maybe scooping whatever line value I can find. For example, New Mexico last week vs. Air Force, as the market wildly undervalued the Liam Szarka injury for the Falcons. It was my biggest overlay of the week and an easy winner. The hope is to catch those on Sunday and Monday and then try to sort through all the other factors.

Week 14 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Ohio State	93.5	3.5
2	Indiana	90	2.5
3	Notre Dame	88.5	3
4	Texas A&M	87	2
5	Alabama	86.5	3.5
6	Oregon	86.5	3.5
7	Georgia	86	3
8	Texas Tech	85.5	3
9	Utah	84.5	3
10	Oklahoma	83.5	3
11	Texas	83.5	3.5
12	Miami (Florida)	83	2
13	USC	82.5	3
14	Vanderbilt	82	1.5
15	Mississippi	81.5	3
16	Michigan	79.5	3
17	Iowa	79	3
18	Tennessee	79	3.5
19	Auburn	78	2
20	BYU	78	2
21	Illinois	77	2
22	Missouri	76	3.5
23	Penn State	75	3.5
24	Washington	75	3.5
25	Clemson	74	2.5
26	LSU	74	3.5
27	Kentucky	73.5	2
28	Virginia	73.5	2
29	Arkansas	73	2
30	Florida State	73	2
31	Georgia Tech	73	2
32	Iowa State	73	2
33	Mississippi State	73	2
34	Duke	72.5	3.5
35	Florida	72.5	2
36	Louisville	72.5	3.5
37	South Florida	72	1.5
38	Arizona	71.5	2
39	Arizona State	71.5	2
40	Cincinnati	71.5	1.5
41	Pittsburgh	71.5	2
42	SMU	71.5	3.5
43	North Texas	71	2
44	Houston	70.5	2
45	North Carolina State	70	2
46	Northwestern	70	1.5
47	South Carolina	70	2.5
48	TCU	70	3
49	Baylor	69	2
50	Nebraska	69	2
51	East Carolina	68.5	2
52	James Madison	68.5	3
53	Kansas State	68	3.5
54	Kansas	67.5	2.5
55	Memphis	67.5	2.5
56	Tulane	67.5	2.5
57	San Diego State	67	2
58	Boise State	66	3.5
59	Rutgers	65.5	2
60	West Virginia	65	2
61	UCLA	64.5	2
62	Wisconsin	64.5	2
63	Michigan State	64	2
64	Connecticut	63.5	2.5
65	Purdue	63.5	1
66	Toledo	63.5	3
67	Wake Forest	63.5	2
68	Minnesota	63	2
69	Navy	63	2
70	UCF	63	2
71	Old Dominion	62	1.5
72	New Mexico	61.5	2
73	Army	61	2.5
74	Maryland	61	2
75	Virginia Tech	61	2
76	Hawai’i	60.5	2
77	North Carolina	60.5	2
78	UNLV	60	2.5
79	Temple	59.5	2
80	Washington State	59.5	3
81	California	59	2
82	Utah State	59	2
83	Colorado	58	2
84	UTSA	58	3.5
85	Southern Mississippi	57.5	2
86	Fresno State	57	2
87	Texas State	57	2
88	Kennesaw State	56.5	1.5
89	Ohio	56.5	3.5
90	San Jose State	56.5	2.5
91	Boston College	55.5	2
92	Florida Atlantic	55.5	2
93	Stanford	55.5	1
94	Western Michigan	55.5	2
95	Louisiana-Lafayette	54.5	2
96	Syracuse	54.5	2.5
97	Western Kentucky	54.5	2.5
98	Marshall	52.5	3
99	Miami (Ohio)	52.5	2.5
100	Troy	52.5	3
101	Wyoming	52.5	2
102	Louisiana Tech	52	2
103	South Alabama	52	2
104	Arkansas State	51.5	2
105	Central Michigan	51.5	2
106	Coastal Carolina	51.5	2
107	Tulsa	51.5	1
108	Georgia Southern	51	3.5
109	Oregon State	51	3.5
110	UAB	51	2.5
111	Jacksonville State	50.5	3.5
112	Missouri State	50.5	2
113	Delaware	50	3
114	Liberty	50	3
115	Rice	50	3
116	Air Force	49.5	2
117	Buffalo	49.5	2
118	Colorado State	49.5	2
119	Appalachian State	48	2
120	Oklahoma State	48	2
121	Eastern Michigan	47.5	2
122	Florida International	47.5	2
123	Nevada	47	1
124	UTEP	46	2
125	Middle Tennessee	45.5	2
126	Northern Illinois	45.5	1
127	Akron	44.5	2
128	Bowling Green	44.5	2
129	Louisiana-Monroe	42.5	2
130	New Mexico State	42.5	2.5
131	Georgia State	42	1
132	Kent State	42	1
133	Sam Houston State	42	0.5
134	Ball State	41	2.5
135	Charlotte	36.5	1
136	Massachusetts	28.5	1

Here are my Week 14 power ratings adjustments:

Up: Miami (OH) +1.5, Arkansas State +1.5, Florida State +2, UNLV +1.5, FAU +1, UConn +1, Tulane +1.5, Tulsa +1, Oklahoma State +1.5, Old Dominion +2.5, Pitt +2.5, North Carolina +1.5, Toledo +2, Virginia Tech +1.5, Missouri +3.5 (Pribula return), Kansas State +1, Nevada +2.5, Arizona +1.5, Stanford +1.5, Texas A&M +1, New Mexico State +1.5, Oregon +1, SMU +3, Wisconsin +2.5, North Texas +1.5, South Florida +1.5, Texas State +1.5, UTSA +3.5, South Alabama +1, FIU +2.5, Auburn +2, Pitt +2, Washington State +2, Wake Forest +2, Penn State +2, James Madison +2.5, Tulsa +2

Down: NC State -1.5, Hawaii -1, Ohio State -1, App State -1, Army -1, UCF -1.5, Delaware -2, Duke -1.5, Ball State -1.5, Houston -3.5, Utah -1.5, Wyoming -2.5, Cal -1.5, Texas -1, UCLA -3, UTEP -1.5, USC -2.5, Sam Houston -1.5, Louisiana Tech -3, Louisville -5, UAB -1.5, Northwestern -3, East Carolina -1.5, LSU -2.5, Troy -1.5, Southern Miss -1, BYU -1, Kentucky -1.5. San Jose State -5 (Eget inj), Duke -3, Syracuse -2.5, Iowa -2, Illinois -2.5

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Missouri +3.5: He didn’t look great against a stout Oklahoma defense, but Beau Pribula’s return definitely helps the Tigers. Remember, I’m also trying to position my PRs for bowl season, at least until everybody opts out and none of the team values matter.

UTSA +3.5: The team I had such high hopes for entering the season has been the most inconsistent team in the nation. But, they just hammered a pretty good ECU team.

SMU +3: Rhett Lashlee is doing work in Dallas. He might have the ACC champions.

Louisville -5: A total no-show from the Cardinals against the aforementioned Mustangs. Miller Moss’s injury didn’t help, but he hasn’t been that good for this team anyway. What a disappointing season for Jeff Brohm’s team.

San Jose State -5: Walker Eget has not been very good the last few weeks, but he was injured against San Diego State and on crutches on the sideline. Yes, he’s been bad lately, but he’s also thrown for over 3,000 yards and San Jose State has 160 more pass attempts than rushing attempts, so his injury is a big deal.

Houston -3.5: I’m not sure what has happened to Houston lately, but Willie Fritz’s team is not ending the season on a high note. I think I got too excited about them.

Louisiana Tech -3: This one slipped through the cracks a bit thanks to some offensive injuries. I’ve still been respecting the solid defense, but haven’t properly accounted for the absences of key guys on the other side.

UCLA -3: I don’t think that the Bruins have much left in the tank. They’ve not looked good at all lately.

Northwestern -3: This is a tough one because the Wildcats dominated the box score against Minnesota. They had a 202-yard edge, but only won 38-35. But, Minnesota has been bet against with regularity every week for a while now. They weren’t this week. NW was the right side, but my line was high and the score played out tighter than I expected.

My Week 14 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
11/25	Western Michigan	Eastern Michigan	+6
	Bowling Green	UMass	+15
11/27	Navy	Memphis	-7
11/28	Ohio	Buffalo	+5
	Mississippi	Mississippi State	+6.5
	Iowa	Nebraska	+6
	Kent State	Northern Illinois	-4.5
	Utah	Kansas	+13
	Arizona	Arizona State	-0.5
	Air Force	Colorado State	-2
	Georgia (N – MB Stad)	Georgia Tech	+13
	San Diego State	New Mexico	+3.5
	Boise State	Utah State	+5
	Texas A&M	Texas	+2
	Indiana	Purdue	+25.5
	Temple	North Texas	-15
11/29	Florida State	Florida	+0.5
	Texas Tech	West Virginia	+18.5
	Georgia State	Old Dominion	-24
	East Carolina	Florida Atlantic	+8.5
	Vanderbilt	Tennessee	-0.5
	Georgia Southern	Marshall	-4.5
	James Madison	Coastal Carolina	+17.5
	Kentucky	Louisville	+1
	Rice	South Florida	-25
	Clemson	South Carolina	+1.5
	Arkansas State	App State	+4
	Wake Forest	Duke	-6
	Ohio State	Michigan	+10
	Maryland	Michigan State (N – Detroit)	-3
	North Carolina	NC State	-8.5
	Miami (FL)	Pitt	+5
	Penn State	Rutgers	+9.5
	Boston College	Syracuse	+1
	Virginia Tech	Virginia	-13
	Toledo	Central Michigan	+12
	Ball State	Miami (OH)	-17
	UTEP	Delaware	-6.5
	LSU	Oklahoma	-15
	Army	UTSA	-5
	Alabama	Auburn	+4.5
	UAB	Tulsa	-6
	Colorado	Kansas State	-14.5
	Cincinnati	TCU	-1.5
	Houston	Baylor	-4
	Troy	Southern Miss	-7.5
	South Alabama	Texas State	-7.5
	FIU	Sam Houston State	+9
	UL Monroe	Louisiana	-14
	Missouri	Arkansas	+4.5
	Charlotte	Tulane	-35
	Iowa State	Oklahoma State	+21.5
	Northwestern	Illinois	-9.5
	Wisconsin	Minnesota	+2
	Louisiana Tech	Missouri State	-3.5
	Western Kentucky	Jacksonville State	+0.5
	UCF	BYU	-17.5
	Middle Tennessee	New Mexico State	-1
	Fresno State	San Jose State	+3
	SMU	Cal	+15
	Notre Dame	Stanford	+30.5
	UCLA	USC	-21.5
	Oregon	Washington	+9
	Kennesaw State	Liberty	+3.5
	Oregon State	Washington State	-13.5
	UNLV	Nevada	+11
	Wyoming	Hawaii	-11.5

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

Colorado State +3 (-2) vs. Air Force: As I mentioned in the intro, the market undervalued the loss of Liam Szarka for Air Force. They had three points and 161 total yards of offense against New Mexico. The two replacement QB were 4-of-11 for 51 yards with a pick and had 27 carries for 63 yards. Szarka might be the most valuable QB in the nation from a point spread standpoint.

Coastal Carolina +22.5 (+17.5) vs. James Madison: Big number for JMU to lay here. They’re obviously the much better team. While the Chanticleers got a big boost from Samari Collier and he’s going to miss this game, I still think the line is too high.

Kentucky +4 (-1) vs. Louisville: The Cardinals are such a huge disappointment. We’ll see if Miller Moss can play here, but I obviously believe Kentucky has a real shot to win outright, let alone cover.

Clemson +2.5 (-1.5) vs. South Carolina: While Nyck Harbor and Dylan Stewart are expected to return in what will be South Carolina’s bowl game against Clemson, I feel like Clemson should be favored here.

Oklahoma -10 (-15) vs. LSU: Oklahoma has everything to play for here. LSU has nothing, though we may know by kickoff if Lane Kiffin is their next head coach or not. Still, I don’t see much of an effort from the Tigers coming.

Wisconsin +2 (-2) at Minnesota: The Golden Gophers have been bet against a lot this season. They weren’t last season and did cover, but also gave up more than 520 yards to Northwestern. The Badgers are playing pretty well since announcing that Luke Fickell would stay

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.