Week 14 College Football Odds, Power Ratings and Projections

Week 14 College Football

The final week of the college football regular season has arrived. Thirteen weeks worth of data points have come down to this week, where it can be an extremely high-variance environment. Some teams will go out there and give a real effort. Others will not. We saw a lot of QB changes last week and a number of inexperienced QBs maybe making their second or third starts. These teams look so much different heading into the Week 14 College Football Power Ratings than they did two or three weeks ago, let alone 13 weeks ago.

This week, we have the added challenge of looking at five-win teams vs. teams with no bowl prospects and rivalry games. Some say you can throw the records out for rivalry games. I disagree, but I understand the sentiment. If you’ve had a long, rough season, but can cap it off with a win over a rival, especially in a spoiler capacity, there’s something to be said about doing that. It gives the program a little bit of momentum going into the offseason…when the roster will look different anyway.

We also have a ton of head coaching jobs open already, will have more after the season, and a lot of interest in some of the better mid-major coaches who will level up and leave openings at their current employers. In other words, my power ratings factor less into the equation for me this week than any other week of the regular season.

That said, I can’t go without doing them and maybe scooping whatever line value I can find. For example, New Mexico last week vs. Air Force, as the market wildly undervalued the Liam Szarka injury for the Falcons. It was my biggest overlay of the week and an easy winner. The hope is to catch those on Sunday and Monday and then try to sort through all the other factors.

Week 14 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Ohio State	92.5	3.5
2	Indiana	90	2.5
3	Notre Dame	88.5	3
4	Texas A&M	88	2
5	Oregon	87.5	3.5
6	Alabama	86.5	3.5
7	Georgia	86	3
8	Texas Tech	85.5	3
9	Oklahoma	83.5	3
10	Miami (Florida)	83	2
11	Utah	83	3
12	Texas	82.5	3.5
13	Vanderbilt	82	1.5
14	Mississippi	81.5	3
15	Auburn	80	2
16	USC	80	3
17	Michigan	79.5	3
18	Missouri	79.5	3.5
19	Tennessee	79	3.5
20	BYU	77	2
21	Iowa	77	3
22	Penn State	77	3.5
23	Pittsburgh	76	2
24	Florida State	75	2
25	Washington	75	3.5
26	Illinois	74.5	2
27	SMU	74.5	3.5
28	Clemson	74	2.5
29	South Florida	73.5	1.5
30	Virginia	73.5	2
31	Arizona	73	2
32	Arkansas	73	2
33	Georgia Tech	73	2
34	Iowa State	73	2
35	Mississippi State	73	2
36	Florida	72.5	2
37	North Texas	72.5	2
38	Kentucky	72	2
39	Arizona State	71.5	2
40	Cincinnati	71.5	1.5
41	LSU	71.5	3.5
42	James Madison	71	3
43	South Carolina	70	2.5
44	TCU	70	3
45	Baylor	69	2
46	Kansas State	69	3.5
47	Nebraska	69	2
48	Tulane	69	2.5
49	North Carolina State	68.5	2
50	Duke	68	3.5
51	Kansas	67.5	2.5
52	Louisville	67.5	3.5
53	Memphis	67.5	2.5
54	East Carolina	67	2
55	Houston	67	2
56	Northwestern	67	1.5
57	San Diego State	67	2
58	Wisconsin	67	2
59	Boise State	66	3.5
60	Rutgers	65.5	2
61	Toledo	65.5	3
62	Wake Forest	65.5	2
63	West Virginia	65	2
64	Connecticut	64.5	2.5
65	Old Dominion	64.5	1.5
66	Michigan State	64	2
67	Purdue	63.5	1
68	Minnesota	63	2
69	Navy	63	2
70	Virginia Tech	62.5	2
71	North Carolina	62	2
72	New Mexico	61.5	2
73	UCF	61.5	2
74	UCLA	61.5	2
75	UNLV	61.5	2.5
76	UTSA	61.5	3.5
77	Washington State	61.5	3
78	Maryland	61	2
79	Army	60	2.5
80	Hawai’i	59.5	2
81	Temple	59.5	2
82	Utah State	59	2
83	Texas State	58.5	2
84	Colorado	58	2
85	California	57.5	2
86	Fresno State	57	2
87	Stanford	57	1
88	Florida Atlantic	56.5	2
89	Kennesaw State	56.5	1.5
90	Ohio	56.5	3.5
91	Southern Mississippi	56.5	2
92	Boston College	55.5	2
93	Western Michigan	55.5	2
94	Louisiana-Lafayette	54.5	2
95	Tulsa	54.5	1
96	Western Kentucky	54.5	2.5
97	Miami (Ohio)	54	2.5
98	Arkansas State	53	2
99	South Alabama	53	2
100	Marshall	52.5	3
101	Syracuse	52	2.5
102	Central Michigan	51.5	2
103	Coastal Carolina	51.5	2
104	San Jose State	51.5	2.5
105	Georgia Southern	51	3.5
106	Oregon State	51	3.5
107	Troy	51	3
108	Jacksonville State	50.5	3.5
109	Missouri State	50.5	2
110	Florida International	50	2
111	Liberty	50	3
112	Rice	50	3
113	Wyoming	50	2
114	Air Force	49.5	2
115	Buffalo	49.5	2
116	Colorado State	49.5	2
117	Nevada	49.5	1
118	Oklahoma State	49.5	2
119	UAB	49.5	2.5
120	Louisiana Tech	49	2
121	Delaware	48	3
122	Eastern Michigan	47.5	2
123	Appalachian State	47	2
124	Middle Tennessee	45.5	2
125	Northern Illinois	45.5	1
126	Akron	44.5	2
127	Bowling Green	44.5	2
128	UTEP	44.5	2
129	New Mexico State	44	2.5
130	Louisiana-Monroe	42.5	2
131	Georgia State	42	1
132	Kent State	42	1
133	Sam Houston State	40.5	0.5
134	Ball State	39.5	2.5
135	Charlotte	36.5	1
136	Massachusetts	28.5	1

Here are my Week 14 power ratings adjustments:

Up: Miami (OH) +1.5, Arkansas State +1.5, Florida State +2, UNLV +1.5, FAU +1, UConn +1, Tulane +1.5, Tulsa +1, Oklahoma State +1.5, Old Dominion +2.5, Pitt +2.5, North Carolina +1.5, Toledo +2, Virginia Tech +1.5, Missouri +3.5 (Pribula return), Kansas State +1, Nevada +2.5, Arizona +1.5, Stanford +1.5, Texas A&M +1, New Mexico State +1.5, Oregon +1, SMU +3, Wisconsin +2.5, North Texas +1.5, South Florida +1.5, Texas State +1.5, UTSA +3.5, South Alabama +1, FIU +2.5, Auburn +2, Pitt +2, Washington State +2, Wake Forest +2, Penn State +2, James Madison +2.5, Tulsa +2

Down: NC State -1.5, Hawaii -1, Ohio State -1, App State -1, Army -1, UCF -1.5, Delaware -2, Duke -1.5, Ball State -1.5, Houston -3.5, Utah -1.5, Wyoming -2.5, Cal -1.5, Texas -1, UCLA -3, UTEP -1.5, USC -2.5, Sam Houston -1.5, Louisiana Tech -3, Louisville -5, UAB -1.5, Northwestern -3, East Carolina -1.5, LSU -2.5, Troy -1.5, Southern Miss -1, BYU -1, Kentucky -1.5. San Jose State -5 (Eget inj), Duke -3, Syracuse -2.5, Iowa -2, Illinois -2.5

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Missouri +3.5: He didn’t look great against a stout Oklahoma defense, but Beau Pribula’s return definitely helps the Tigers. Remember, I’m also trying to position my PRs for bowl season, at least until everybody opts out and none of the team values matter.

UTSA +3.5: The team I had such high hopes for entering the season has been the most inconsistent team in the nation. But, they just hammered a pretty good ECU team.

SMU +3: Rhett Lashlee is doing work in Dallas. He might have the ACC champions.

Louisville -5: A total no-show from the Cardinals against the aforementioned Mustangs. Miller Moss’s injury didn’t help, but he hasn’t been that good for this team anyway. What a disappointing season for Jeff Brohm’s team.

San Jose State -5: Walker Eget has not been very good the last few weeks, but he was injured against San Diego State and on crutches on the sideline. Yes, he’s been bad lately, but he’s also thrown for over 3,000 yards and San Jose State has 160 more pass attempts than rushing attempts, so his injury is a big deal.

Houston -3.5: I’m not sure what has happened to Houston lately, but Willie Fritz’s team is not ending the season on a high note. I think I got too excited about them.

Louisiana Tech -3: This one slipped through the cracks a bit thanks to some offensive injuries. I’ve still been respecting the solid defense, but haven’t properly accounted for the absences of key guys on the other side.

UCLA -3: I don’t think that the Bruins have much left in the tank. They’ve not looked good at all lately.

Northwestern -3: This is a tough one because the Wildcats dominated the box score against Minnesota. They had a 202-yard edge, but only won 38-35. But, Minnesota has been bet against with regularity every week for a while now. They weren’t this week. NW was the right side, but my line was high and the score played out tighter than I expected.

My Week 14 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
11/25	Western Michigan	Eastern Michigan	+6
	Bowling Green	UMass	+15
11/27	Navy	Memphis	-7
11/28	Ohio	Buffalo	+5
	Mississippi	Mississippi State	+6.5
	Iowa	Nebraska	+6
	Kent State	Northern Illinois	-4.5
	Utah	Kansas	+13
	Arizona	Arizona State	-0.5
	Air Force	Colorado State	-2
	Georgia (N – MB Stad)	Georgia Tech	+13
	San Diego State	New Mexico	+3.5
	Boise State	Utah State	+5
	Texas A&M	Texas	+2
	Indiana	Purdue	+25.5
	Temple	North Texas	-15
11/29	Florida State	Florida	+0.5
	Texas Tech	West Virginia	+18.5
	Georgia State	Old Dominion	-24
	East Carolina	Florida Atlantic	+8.5
	Vanderbilt	Tennessee	-0.5
	Georgia Southern	Marshall	-4.5
	James Madison	Coastal Carolina	+17.5
	Kentucky	Louisville	+1
	Rice	South Florida	-25
	Clemson	South Carolina	+1.5
	Arkansas State	App State	+4
	Wake Forest	Duke	-6
	Ohio State	Michigan	+10
	Maryland	Michigan State (N – Detroit)	-3
	North Carolina	NC State	-8.5
	Miami (FL)	Pitt	+5
	Penn State	Rutgers	+9.5
	Boston College	Syracuse	+1
	Virginia Tech	Virginia	-13
	Toledo	Central Michigan	+12
	Ball State	Miami (OH)	-17
	UTEP	Delaware	-6.5
	LSU	Oklahoma	-15
	Army	UTSA	-5
	Alabama	Auburn	+4.5
	UAB	Tulsa	-6
	Colorado	Kansas State	-14.5
	Cincinnati	TCU	-1.5
	Houston	Baylor	-4
	Troy	Southern Miss	-7.5
	South Alabama	Texas State	-7.5
	FIU	Sam Houston State	+9
	UL Monroe	Louisiana	-14
	Missouri	Arkansas	+4.5
	Charlotte	Tulane	-35
	Iowa State	Oklahoma State	+21.5
	Northwestern	Illinois	-9.5
	Wisconsin	Minnesota	+2
	Louisiana Tech	Missouri State	-3.5
	Western Kentucky	Jacksonville State	+0.5
	UCF	BYU	-17.5
	Middle Tennessee	New Mexico State	-1
	Fresno State	San Jose State	+3
	SMU	Cal	+15
	Notre Dame	Stanford	+30.5
	UCLA	USC	-21.5
	Oregon	Washington	+9
	Kennesaw State	Liberty	+3.5
	Oregon State	Washington State	-13.5
	UNLV	Nevada	+11
	Wyoming	Hawaii	-11.5

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

Colorado State +3 (-2) vs. Air Force: As I mentioned in the intro, the market undervalued the loss of Liam Szarka for Air Force. They had three points and 161 total yards of offense against New Mexico. The two replacement QB were 4-of-11 for 51 yards with a pick and had 27 carries for 63 yards. Szarka might be the most valuable QB in the nation from a point spread standpoint.

Coastal Carolina +22.5 (+17.5) vs. James Madison: Big number for JMU to lay here. They’re obviously the much better team. While the Chanticleers got a big boost from Samari Collier and he’s going to miss this game, I still think the line is too high.

Kentucky +4 (-1) vs. Louisville: The Cardinals are such a huge disappointment. We’ll see if Miller Moss can play here, but I obviously believe Kentucky has a real shot to win outright, let alone cover.

Clemson +2.5 (-1.5) vs. South Carolina: While Nyck Harbor and Dylan Stewart are expected to return in what will be South Carolina’s bowl game against Clemson, I feel like Clemson should be favored here.

Oklahoma -10 (-15) vs. LSU: Oklahoma has everything to play for here. LSU has nothing, though we may know by kickoff if Lane Kiffin is their next head coach or not. Still, I don’t see much of an effort from the Tigers coming.

Wisconsin +2 (-2) at Minnesota: The Golden Gophers have been bet against a lot this season. They weren’t last season and did cover, but also gave up more than 520 yards to Northwestern. The Badgers are playing pretty well since announcing that Luke Fickell would stay

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.