Week 14. It has been a long and winding road to get to this point, but the college football regular season comes to an end on Sunday night. We’ll have conference championship games next week, bowl games and College Football Playoff matchups after that, and then wait and see what happens during a hectic transfer portal period. On the plus side, the NCAA changed the portal window to January 2-16, so maybe we won’t have quite as many opt-outs for bowl games. Either way, Week 14 college football is on the brain first and then we can get to everything else.
Moving parts are always a thing with CFB, but especially in late November. We’ve had QB changes. We have injuries. We have teams that might care this week and teams that might not. A lot of things are speculation unless we hear confirmation otherwise, but they have to be factored into the handicap.
One other thing to factor into the handicap is the teams sitting on five wins. For Week 14, they are:
American: Army, Rice, Temple
ACC: Florida State
Big 12: Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, UCF
Big Ten: Penn State, Rutgers
C-USA: Delaware (not bowl-eligible due to transition period)
MAC: Buffalo
Pac-12: Washington State
SEC: Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi State
Sun Belt: App State, Georgia Southern, Marshall; Arkansas State, Louisiana, Texas State
Penn State vs. Rutgers, Georgia Southern vs. Marshall, and Arkansas State vs. App State are the only games between 5-6 teams. Those are hardly the other games to keep an eye on, but they are games where we could see some line inflation on those teams.
Let’s look at what may be the last football game of the season for these teams and also the last college football game for some of the players on those teams.
Let’s talk about the Week 14 college football odds.
Check out the DraftKings College Football Betting Splits and Circa College Football Betting Splits to follow line moves all week long!
Week 14 College Football Odds Report
Lines as of Sunday, November 23 at 4:00 p.m. PT
Navy at Memphis (-5.5, 58.5)
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Thanksgiving will be followed closely on the NFL side of things, but this is the only college football game of the evening. Navy can still make it into the American Conference Championship Game, but it would take the biggest upset of the season with Charlotte over Tulane. But, Memphis doesn’t really have much to play for this week at all and they’ve dropped two in a row. This line was as high as Tigers -7, but has come back down into the dead zone of 5.5 and 6.
Ohio (-6.5, 47.5) at Buffalo
Friday, Noon ET
This is a game with a lot of importance in the MAC. Assuming Western Michigan beats Eastern Michigan on Tuesday, this one may be for the other spot in the conference title game. Ohio is tied with three other teams at 5-2 in conference play. They have a head-to-head win over Miami. They did not play Toledo and Central Michigan, which brings all sorts of tiebreakers into the mix. The Rockets and Chippewas actually play each other on Saturday. There are a few games with some conference title game implications and this is one, so it’s a line worth following, as Ohio is mostly -6.5. DraftKings actually opened 4.5.
Mississippi (-7.5, 63.5) at Mississippi State
Friday, Noon ET
The Egg Bowl has a new layer of intrigue this season with Lane Kiffin’s impending decision on who he’ll be coaching next season. He’s reportedly weighing a huge offer from LSU, while Florida seems on the periphery. It’s a huge distraction for the Rebels with a College Football Playoff berth likely looming. For now, the line is mostly sitting 7.5 or 8 with no initial line movement, but we could see this line swing if some insider info leaks on Kiffin’s future.
Mississippi-Mississippi State Matchup
Air Force (-3, 48.5) at Colorado State
Friday, 3 p.m. ET
How bad is Colorado State? Well, Air Force is taking some early-week money here, even though QB Liam Szarka is out for the season. The Falcons had three points last week and their QBs accounted for a total of 51 passing yards and 63 rushing yards. This line was -2 at Circa and has gone up to -3 and even as high as 3.5. Not a game that most will be interested in, but it is hard to encapsulate just how terrible Air Force’s offense has been without Szarka, so this line move surprises me.
Air Force-Colorado State Matchup
Texas A&M (-2.5, 51.5) at Texas
Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Arguably the biggest game on Friday is Texas A&M vs. Texas. The Aggies are trying to complete a perfect regular season and avoid tiebreaker scenarios because a loss would run the risk of being tied with Georgia, Ole Miss, and Alabama in the SEC conference standings. Texas is probably still safe in terms of a CFP berth with wins over Notre Dame and a couple other ranked teams, but they’d prefer not to leave any doubt. This line is mostly 2.5 with extra vig, but I have a sneaking suspicion it comes down with money on Texas.
Clemson at South Carolina (-2, 46)
Saturday, Noon ET
A precarious number here, as it wouldn’t take much for Clemson to become the favorite in the Palmetto Bowl. This is South Carolina’s final game win or lose, as they will not be eligible for a bowl. It’s been an underwhelming and disappointing season for both teams, so this year’s rivalry game means a little more in that it serves as a silver lining. So far, we haven’t seen a ton of movement one way or the other, but I think there will be a lot of opinions about these two teams.
Clemson-South Carolina Matchup
Ohio State (-10.5, 44.5) at Michigan
Saturday, Noon ET
Let’s see which way this line goes. There are a lot of factors in play. Obviously Michigan has won four in a row over Ohio State, so a 10.5-point head start when Ryan Day has not done well in this game is appealing. A 10.5-point head start is also appealing with a total in the mid-40s that already moved down a point off of open at Circa. Also, we know Ohio State’s top two WR are not fully healthy and many have taken shots at their strength of schedule. But, it’s a Buckeyes team that has allowed 68 total points in eight games. The Buckeyes might only need to get into the 20s for a cover here. So, we’ll see where it goes, but you can bet this line will draw a lot of betting handle.
Vanderbilt at Tennessee (-2.5, 64.5)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
I’ve talked about this scenario a few times this season, but this game is a great time to revisit it. Vanderbilt has gone from +3.5 down to +2.5 across most of the market. Anytime you see a Sunday move through a key number, it is a pretty interesting development. What makes it more interesting is that you now get to watch the line throughout the week and see if it goes back to it, over it, or keeps going down. Early line movement on Sundays and Mondays come from what I refer to as the “quant” crowd. People who have models, make their own numbers, etc. But, they’re also betting into smaller limits than those betting later in the week. So, this is a line to watch and follow for sure and it’s a good idea to isolate games like this in future seasons to think about them.
Wisconsin at Minnesota (-2, 37.5)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the betting markets don’t like Minnesota this week. Last week was the first time in a long time that we didn’t see a line move against the Golden Gophers and they covered, though they shouldn’t have, as they were outgained by more than 200 yards. Here, we’re already seeing Wisconsin money hit the board, as this one ranges from -1.5 to -2.5. Interestingly, Circa did open -1 on Minnesota and went up to -2, but others were lower by Sunday evening.
Oregon State at Washington State (-13.5, 43.5)
Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET
Watch this line climb in Pullman. We’re already seeing some 14s out there and I think it may very well go even higher than that. These two teams already played once this season, as Wazzu lost 10-7 in a game that featured barely over 450 yards of offense. Washington State outgained Oregon State by nearly 80 yards and finished -2 in turnovers. Since then, the Cougars have played pretty well, while Oregon State has not. They need a new head coach and their opponents have a shot at bowl eligibility. This line probably isn’t done at 14.
Oregon State-Washington State Matchup
Alabama (-5.5, 49.5) at Auburn
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
The Iron Bowl is always dripping with storylines and this one is no different. The Tigers have an interim head coach. Alabama is hoping they’ve done enough as a two-loss team to get into the CFP. Auburn would get bowl-eligible with an upset victory here and also salvage something from a wasted season. Jordan-Hare has been the home of some pretty special moments for the Tigers in this rivalry game, too. But, to this point, Alabama has been the preferred side, going from -4.5 or -5 to -5.5. I’m not surprised at that initial move. I also won’t be surprised if more of a qualitative handicap pushes this line back down.
Fresno State (-2.5, 47.5) at San Jose State
Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET
I wonder if this line will be similar to what we saw with New Mexico and Air Force last week. That line opened around pick ‘em and closed mostly -3 or -3.5 on New Mexico as word circulated that Liam Szarka was done for Air Force and people started to realize how pathetic the Falcons offense was without him. Walker Eget is unlikely to play here for San Jose State after leaving last week’s game and coming back to the sidelines with crutches. I have to think that something more definitive on Eget comes out on Tuesday or so and we see Fresno State money hit the board.
Fresno State-San Jose State Matchup
Keep an eye out for more line movements by tracking our VSiN College Football Betting Splits.
