College Football Picks
Hopefully it has been a profitable and enjoyable college football regular season for you. As we make our Week 14 college football picks, we wrap up the portion of the season that features everybody and move on to conference championships, bowl games, and College Football Playoff games. That means we still have a lot of action left, but not as much as we have had on Saturdays.
It is important to look back at every college football season and see what you did well and what you didn’t do so well. Were totals better than sides? Vice versa? Did you do better later in the season when we had more data and less uncertainty after teams settled in? Did you have your edges early from following the transfer portal? All things to evaluate now or some time in the future to try and get better for next season.
These are my favorite Week 14 college football picks, but we have many others. You can check out our Week 14 College Football Hub to see what others are taking and also to explore all of our college football tools, power ratings, and more. See our College Football Pro Picks page for more from my colleagues and broadcast guests.
Here are my Week 14 College Football Picks:
Odds as of Wednesday, November 26, 11:00 a.m. PT
Texas Tech (-23.5, 54) at West Virginia Pick
Saturday, Noon ET
Texas Tech wraps up a stellar regular season in Morgantown against the Mountaineers. It has been a tough season for WVU, as they’ve had some transition at the QB position in Rich Rod’s first season back with the program.
Statistically, there are minimal reasons to really like WVU here. Texas Tech is a top-25 offense by yards per play and a top-five defense. West Virginia is 113th in YPP on offense and 72nd in YPP on defense. That is a bit of a silver lining, I guess. The Mountaineers defense grades around league average and has been playing pretty well of late, holding three November opponents to 5.22 yards per play. After a disastrous month of October with just 3.92 YPP, the Mountaineers have 5.28 YPP in November, so they’re actually posting a positive YPP differential.
This is more of a qualitative play than a quantitative one. It’s an early kick in Morgantown, where it’s going to be a high of 38 degrees. Not exactly ideal for Texas Tech with a kickoff temp around 36 degrees. The Red Raiders have much bigger things on the horizon and they’ve dealt with injuries at the QB position for a while, so I really don’t expect Joey McGuire and his offensive staff to put Behren Morton at much risk. Mitch Griffis played the entire second half last week and I could see something similar here, as Texas Tech led 38-2 at home at halftime. I don’t think they’ll start that fast here, but I do think they’ll be as protective as possible when they do get a lead.
WVU has beaten Houston and Colorado this month and lost by a deuce in Tempe against Arizona State, so they really are ending the season with some positives and a good effort against the likely conference champ and a CFP team would be a building block for an important offseason.
Pick: West Virginia +23.5
East Carolina (-7, 66) at Florida Atlantic Prediction
Saturday, Noon ET
The Pirates and Owls wrap up their regular seasons in Boca Raton on what could be a bit of a windy day on the Atlantic coast. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts in excess of 25 mph have had a bit of an impact on this total, which has dropped a little bit as the weather forecast has come into focus.
I get it. Caden Veltkamp for FAU has thrown 485 times this season and FAU’s 531 pass attempts rank far and away first in the nation. East Carolina’s 393 tosses are 23rd. These are two teams that do like to pass to set up whatever they can do in the running game and wind could have an impact on that. But, I really don’t think that the wind is going to impact either passing game that much.
Florida Atlantic is 122nd in the nation in percentage of plays of 7+ yards allowed and 126th in percentage of plays of 10+ yards allowed per BCFToys. East Carolina is 61st and 82nd, respectively, but they are a top-50 offense in both metrics. FAU is actually a top-25 offense in both metrics.
Both teams are also having their best months of the season running the football. East Carolina has averaged 4.98 yards per carry with 11 rushing scores and they’ve had two straight months now of running for more than 200 yards per game. After struggling to find footing with the run over their first eight games, FAU has 4.64 YPC this month.
Veltkamp has thrown 15 interceptions to lead the nation, so the wind blowing any already errant passes off-track could give ECU some short fields and I’d expect them to capitalize. The Owls rank 117th in red zone TD% against. East Carolina is actually a top-five unit, and that is an area where FAU has struggled. If this game is going to stay Under the total, it will be that and not the wind.
But, the Owls do have 14 red zone trips in just three games this month and these two teams have 98 red zone trips combined. The opportunity to score points will be there and offensive players will want to put up numbers in the regular season finale. East Carolina will have a bowl game to play. Florida Atlantic will not, so expect their offensive guys to go all-out.
Pick: Over 66
UAB Blazers at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-7.5, 58) Prediction
Saturday, 3 p.m. ET
Every coach will say that the goal for the season is to win the final game. Whether that means ending the regular season on a high note, winning the bowl game, or winning it all, coaches are big on that sort of thing. Even though Tulsa will not be going to a bowl game in Tre Lamb’s first season, the team made some significant strides. This is a Golden Hurricane team that hasn’t won five games since 2022. Five wins would be the most in a season for most of the players on the roster.
And for UAB, this has been a season from hell. The Blazers saw head coach Trent Dilfer fired midseason and perked up a little bit for a shocking win over Memphis, but they’ve been beaten by 19, 7, 29, and 30 over the last four games. Last week, they still took the field at home in honor of the seniors after two teammates were stabbed at the football facility prior to the game.
Now they’re back on the road and I can’t imagine there’s a whole lot of desire to play this one. The team’s better players have already figured out where they’re going to transfer and how much money they’re going to get. The players that don’t leave will sit and wait to see what the new coaching staff looks like.
Jalen Kitna has taken back over for Ryder Burton and has thrown five interceptions in the last two games against just one TD pass. Kitna hasn’t thrown more than one TD pass in a game since Sept. 20 against Tennessee. He doesn’t protect the football well and UAB doesn’t protect the QBs well, allowing 28 sacks this season to this point.
Along with inefficient offensive play, UAB is 132nd in the nation in yards per play and Tulsa is more than 60 spots higher than that. The Golden Hurricane actually have a positive YPP differential here in the final month. They haven’t played the hardest slate of opponents, but they’re still showing up to work. I doubt that the Blazers will show up this week.
Pick: Tulsa -7.5
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