Week 14 College Football Power Ratings and Predictions

Week 14 College Football Power Ratings:

The final week of the college football regular season has arrived. It is Week 14 and it is a huge week in terms of the College Football Playoff Rankings, which I wrote about on Sunday morning. It is also such a tough week for handicapping.

It is Rivalry Week, so you’ll hear the old cliche about how you can throw out the records. Well, you can’t. What happened to this point matters. But, we’re going to have games where a really bad team steps up against a favorite and games where that team just gets pummeled, so it will apply in some cases and not others.

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We also have all the same considerations as previous weeks. Fired coaches, teams falling short of goals, all those kinds of things. One wrinkle we have this week that we kind of had last week but hadn’t leading up to that point is the “five-win” premium.

It takes six wins to be bowl-eligible, unless there aren’t enough teams and then teams can qualify by having good APR (academic) scores. There are 16 teams with five wins – North Texas, Virginia, Virginia Tech, NC State, Kansas, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan (WMU and EMU play each other), New Mexico, Oregon State, Auburn, App State, Coastal Carolina, UL Monroe.

People will back these teams thinking that they have all kinds of motivation to win so they can go to a bowl game. That’s not always the case. Many players opt out of bowls anyway and teams just might not be that interested in more practices and another game. Also, if these teams were good, they wouldn’t need a win in the final week to make a bowl.

So, don’t overanalyze what making a bowl game means. For a program that rarely does it, like New Mexico or Louisiana Monroe, or a team that wasn’t expected to do much of anything like Michigan State and Oregon State, it may carry a lot more weight. Teams like NC State, Auburn, Virginia Tech, and Wisconsin are programs with higher expectations than squeaking into a bowl game.

Here are my Week 14 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Ohio State	91	3.5
2	Oregon	90	3.5
3	Georgia	87	3
4	Notre Dame	87	3.5
5	Texas	86.5	3.5
6	Mississippi	84.5	3.5
7	Alabama	84	3.5
8	Penn State	84	3.5
9	Indiana	83	1.5
10	SMU	82	3.5
11	Miami (Florida)	81.5	2
12	Tennessee	80.5	3.5
13	Clemson	80	3
14	South Carolina	80	2.5
15	Texas A&M	79	3
16	Colorado	78.5	2
17	Kansas	78	2
18	Auburn	76.5	2
19	Iowa State	76	2
20	LSU	76	3.5
21	Tulane	75.5	2
22	Florida	75	2
23	Louisville	74.5	3.5
24	Virginia Tech	74.5	2
25	Iowa	74	2.5
26	Kansas State	74	3.5
27	USC	74	2
28	Baylor	73.5	2
29	TCU	73.5	2.5
30	Arizona State	73	2
31	Boise State	73	2.5
32	Washington	73	2
33	Michigan	72.5	3.5
34	UCF	72.5	3
35	Kentucky	72	2.5
36	Oklahoma	72	3.5
37	BYU	71.5	2
38	Texas Tech	71.5	2.5
39	Vanderbilt	71.5	1
40	UNLV	71	2
41	Georgia Tech	70.5	1
42	Minnesota	70.5	2
43	Arkansas	69.5	2
44	California	69.5	2
45	Duke	69.5	3
46	Missouri	69.5	2
47	Washington State	69.5	2.5
48	Army	69	2
49	Cincinnati	68.5	2
50	Wisconsin	68.5	2
51	Pittsburgh	68	2
52	Texas State	68	2
53	UCLA	68	2
54	Virginia	68	2
55	Illinois	67.5	2
56	Nebraska	67.5	2
57	West Virginia	67.5	3
58	North Carolina	66.5	2.5
59	Utah	66.5	3.5
60	North Carolina State	66	3.5
61	Syracuse	66	2.5
62	Rutgers	65.5	2
63	Boston College	65	1.5
64	Navy	64.5	2
65	Houston	64	2
66	James Madison	64	3.5
67	Maryland	63.5	2
68	South Alabama	63.5	2.5
69	UTSA	63.5	3.5
70	Arizona	63	2
71	Memphis	63	2
72	Oklahoma State	63	3.5
73	Louisiana-Lafayette	62.5	3
74	Marshall	62	2
75	Florida State	61.5	2
76	Michigan State	61.5	2.5
77	Mississippi State	61.5	2
78	Old Dominion	61.5	2
79	Stanford	61.5	1
80	South Florida	61	2
81	San Jose State	60.5	2
82	Wake Forest	60.5	2.5
83	Jacksonville State	60	2.5
84	Bowling Green	59.5	2
85	Fresno State	59.5	2.5
86	Northern Illinois	59.5	1.5
87	Connecticut	59	2
88	New Mexico	59	1
89	Northwestern	59	1.5
90	Ohio	59	2
91	Appalachian State	58	2.5
92	Colorado State	58	1
93	East Carolina	58	2
94	Miami (Ohio)	58	3
95	North Texas	58	2
96	Georgia Southern	57.5	2
97	Liberty	57.5	3
98	Toledo	57.5	2.5
99	Western Kentucky	56	2.5
100	Air Force	55.5	2.5
101	Sam Houston State	55.5	2
102	Troy	55.5	2.5
103	Arkansas State	55	2
104	Oregon State	55	3.5
105	Rice	54.5	2
106	Charlotte	54	1
107	Coastal Carolina	54	2.5
108	Nevada	53.5	1.5
109	Louisiana-Monroe	53	2
110	Utah State	53	2
111	Hawai’i	52.5	2
112	Georgia State	52	2
113	Louisiana Tech	52	2
114	San Diego State	52	2
115	Purdue	51.5	2
116	Buffalo	50	1
117	Western Michigan	50	2
118	Wyoming	49.5	2.5
119	Eastern Michigan	48	2
120	Temple	48	2
121	Akron	47.5	1
122	Florida International	47	1
123	UAB	46.5	2.5
124	Florida Atlantic	45.5	2
125	Massachusetts	44.5	1
126	New Mexico State	44	2.5
127	Central Michigan	43	2
128	Ball State	42.5	2
129	Middle Tennessee	41.5	2
130	UTEP	41.5	2
131	Tulsa	41	1
132	Southern Mississippi	40	2
133	Kennesaw State	38	2
134	Kent State	31.5	2

Here are this week’s Power Ratings adjustments:

Up: Northern Illinois +1.5, Buffalo +2.5, NC State +1.5, UTSA +3.5, San Jose State +2, SMU +1, Duke +2, Kansas +3.5, Florida +2.5, UConn +1.5, South Florida +2.5, App State +1.5, Nebraska +1, Ohio State +1, Liberty +1.5, New Mexico State +2.5, Stanford +1.5, Air Force +5, Kennesaw State +2.5, Troy +1, TCU +1.5, South Alabama +2, Texas Tech +1, Auburn +1.5, USC +2, Oregon State +2.5, Notre Dame +2.5, Oklahoma +2.5, Fresno State +2.5, South Carolina +2, Michigan +2

Down: Eastern Michigan -2.5, Michigan State -2.5, Pitt -3, Ball State -1.5, North Carolina -2, Colorado -1.5, Mississippi -1.5, FAU -2.5, Tulsa -2, James Madison -1.5, Wisconsin -5, Maryland -2.5, Georgia -1.5, Western Kentucky -2, Iowa State -1, Cal -1.5, Nevada -2, FIU -2, Louisiana -2.5, Arizona -1.5, Cincinnati -3, Texas -1, Oklahoma State -1, North Texas -2.5, Rice -2.5, UCLA -1.5, Boise State -2, Alabama -2.5, Colorado State -2, Army -3, Clemson -1.5, Tennessee -2

Here are my Week 14 College Football Lines

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
11/26	Kent State	Buffalo	-19.5
	Toledo	Akron	+9
11/28	Memphis	Tulane	-14.5
11/29	Ball State	Ohio	-18.5
	Miami (OH)	Bowling Green	-3.5
	Oklahoma State	Colorado	-17.5
	Minnesota	Wisconsin	PK
	Oregon State	Boise State	-20.5
	Texas State	South Alabama	+2
	Mississippi State	Mississippi	-26.5
	Liberty	Sam Houston	PK
	Stanford	San Jose State	-1
	Nebraska	Iowa	-9
	Georgia Tech	Georgia	-19.5
	Utah	UCF	-9
	Utah State	Colorado State	-6
	Navy	East Carolina	+4.5
11/30	UTSA	Army	-7.5
	TCU	Cincinnati	+3
	Coastal Carolina	Georgia State	PK
	South Carolina	Clemson	-3
	Pitt	Boston College	+1.5
	NC State	North Carolina	-3
	Florida	Florida State	+11.5
	Central Michigan	Northern Illinois	-18
	North Texas	Temple	+8
	Tennessee	Vanderbilt	+8
	UConn	UMass	+13.5
	Miami (FL)	Syracuse	+13
	Virginia	Virginia Tech	-8.5
	Eastern Michigan	Western Michigan	-4
	Marshall	James Madison	-5.5
	UAB	Charlotte	-8.5
	App State	Georgia Southern	-1.5
	Duke	Wake Forest	+6.5
	Michigan	Ohio State	-22
	Old Dominion	Arkansas State	+4.5
	Illinois	Northwestern	+8.5
	Rutgers	Michigan State	+1.5
	Middle Tennessee	FIU	-6.5
	Arizona State	Arizona	+8
	Houston	BYU	-9.5
	Air Force	San Diego State	+1.5
	Fresno State	UCLA	-10.5
	South Florida	Rice	+4.5
	West Virginia	Texas Tech	-6.5
	Jacksonville State	Western Kentucky	+1.5
	Southern Miss	Troy	-18
	Oklahoma	LSU	-7.5
	FAU	Tulsa	+3.5
	Kansas	Baylor	+2.5
	Cal	SMU	-16
	Texas	Texas A&M	+4.5
	Louisville	Kentucky	PK
	Arkansas	Missouri	-2
	Auburn	Alabama	-11
	Kansas State	Iowa State	-4
	Louisiana	UL Monroe	+7.5
	Washington	Oregon	-20.5
	Purdue	Indiana	-33
	Maryland	Penn State	-24
	UTEP	New Mexico State	-5
	Kennesaw State	Louisiana Tech	-16
	Wyoming	Washington State	-22.5
	Notre Dame	USC	+11
	Nevada	UNLV	-19.5
	New Mexico	Hawaii	+4.5

Some games to consider based on the differences between the betting market and my lines

Iowa -5.5 (-9) vs. Nebraska: Wisconsin is clearly in a major state of flux, so I’m not reading much into Nebraska’s win last week. Maybe Iowa isn’t any good either, but they’re still a great defense.

Pitt -1.5 (+4) at Boston College: I know Pitt has fallen on hard times late in the season here, and both teams have had QB injuries, but three of Pitt’s four losses are SMU, Clemson, and Louisville. Boston College is not close to that level.

Charlotte -3 (-8) vs. UAB: I don’t know what Charlotte’s mindset is with the Biff Poggi firing. Or what got into UAB last week with the blowout win over Rice. But, this line is off to me.

Jacksonville State +2 (-1.5) vs. Western Kentucky: This is one where I have the road team favored, but Jacksonville State is already in the C-USA Championship Game and may sit some guys. Keep that in mind with some G5 games this week.

Kansas +1.5 (-2.5) at Baylor: Kansas might be the best team in the Big 12 at present, but they lost a bunch of close games early and it buried them.

Notre Dame -7 (-11) vs. USC: I think it’s flown under the radar how good Notre Dame has been since the Northern Illinois loss because it was such a shocking loss and they’re not in a conference race. They’ve been crushing opponents and I think this is a team nobody wants to face next month.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.