Week 15 College Football Odds, Power Ratings and Projections

Week 15 College Football

The month of December is chaotic in college football. Obviously the Lane Kiffin circus has been dominating the headlines over the last couple days of November, so it seems to be starting a bit early, but we’ve seen head coach announcements, more firings, and we’re only going to get more and more movement as the days peel off the calendar.

Fortunately, the transfer portal doesn’t open until January 2 this year,  but we’ll still see opt-outs for bowl games, whether guys are going to the NFL or are staying healthy to get paid at their next college or university. At least we won’t have to worry about any opt-outs this week, as 18 teams take the field across nine conference championship games. My Week 15 Power Ratings do encompass everything that happened in Week 14, both on and off the field, but the only lined games listed here are for those title games.

I do have to get up on my soapbox here and say that this was a terrible weekend for college football. A five-loss Duke team has a chance at the College Football Playoff. Two conferences, the MAC and Mountain West, had to go multiple tiebreakers deep to determine who would actually play in the conference title game. Ohio and Toledo, who BOTH beat Miami in the regular season, were third in the three-way tiebreaker, but because the Bobcats and Rockets didn’t play each other, it went to a totally misleading tiebreaker. Add in this Kiffin soap opera and both coaches in the American Conference title game having already pretty much agreed to new jobs with the winner of that game going to the CFP and the optics have been terrible.

All we can do is handicap what’s in front of us, but looking long-term, college football needs some new solutions to these problems.

Week 15 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Ohio State	94	3.5
2	Indiana	90	2.5
3	Notre Dame	88.5	3
4	Texas A&M	88	2
5	Texas Tech	88	3
6	Oregon	87.5	3.5
7	Alabama	86.5	3.5
8	Georgia	86	3
9	Miami (Florida)	84.5	2
10	Vanderbilt	84.5	1.5
11	Texas	84	3.5
12	Mississippi	81.5	3
13	Oklahoma	81	3
14	Utah	80.5	3
15	USC	80	3
16	Michigan	79.5	3
17	Missouri	79.5	3.5
18	Iowa	78.5	3
19	Auburn	78	2
20	BYU	77	2
21	Penn State	77	3.5
22	Pittsburgh	76	2
23	South Florida	76	1.5
24	Tennessee	76	3.5
25	Arizona	75.5	2
26	North Texas	75	2
27	Washington	75	3.5
28	Illinois	74.5	2
29	James Madison	74.5	3
30	Clemson	74	2.5
31	LSU	73.5	3.5
32	Arkansas	73	2
33	Georgia Tech	73	2
34	Mississippi State	73	2
35	Florida	72.5	2
36	Florida State	72.5	2
37	SMU	72	3.5
38	TCU	71.5	3
39	Virginia	71	2
40	Iowa State	70.5	2
41	South Carolina	70	2.5
42	Kentucky	69.5	2
43	Arizona State	69	2
44	Kansas State	69	3.5
45	Louisville	69	3.5
46	Nebraska	69	2
47	Tulane	69	2.5
48	Cincinnati	68.5	1.5
49	North Carolina State	68.5	2
50	Kansas	67.5	2.5
51	Baylor	67	2
52	East Carolina	67	2
53	Houston	67	2
54	Northwestern	67	1.5
55	Wisconsin	67	2
56	Duke	66	3.5
57	San Diego State	65.5	2
58	Toledo	65.5	3
59	Wake Forest	65.5	2
60	Connecticut	64.5	2.5
61	Memphis	64.5	2.5
62	Navy	64.5	2
63	Old Dominion	64.5	1.5
64	Michigan State	64	2
65	UNLV	64	2.5
66	New Mexico	63.5	2
67	Purdue	63.5	1
68	Boise State	63	3.5
69	Minnesota	63	2
70	Rutgers	63	2
71	Virginia Tech	62.5	2
72	North Carolina	62	2
73	West Virginia	62	2
74	UCF	61.5	2
75	UCLA	61.5	2
76	UTSA	61.5	3.5
77	Washington State	61.5	3
78	Maryland	61	2
79	Utah State	60.5	2
80	Army	60	2.5
81	Texas State	60	2
82	Hawai’i	59.5	2
83	Colorado	58	2
84	California	57.5	2
85	Fresno State	57	2
86	Stanford	57	1
87	Temple	57	2
88	Western Michigan	57	2
89	Florida Atlantic	56.5	2
90	Kennesaw State	56.5	1.5
91	Ohio	56.5	3.5
92	Southern Mississippi	56.5	2
93	Boston College	55.5	2
94	Miami (Ohio)	55	2.5
95	Tulsa	54.5	1
96	Western Kentucky	54.5	2.5
97	Arkansas State	53	2
98	South Alabama	53	2
99	Louisiana-Lafayette	52.5	2
100	Marshall	52.5	3
101	Troy	52.5	3
102	Jacksonville State	52	3.5
103	Oklahoma State	52	2
104	Central Michigan	51.5	2
105	San Jose State	51.5	2.5
106	Georgia Southern	51	3.5
107	Oregon State	51	3.5
108	Missouri State	50.5	2
109	Florida International	50	2
110	Liberty	50	3
111	Rice	50	3
112	Wyoming	50	2
113	Air Force	49.5	2
114	Buffalo	49.5	2
115	Nevada	49.5	1
116	Syracuse	49.5	2.5
117	UAB	49.5	2.5
118	Appalachian State	49	2
119	Louisiana Tech	49	2
120	Delaware	48	3
121	Eastern Michigan	47.5	2
122	Coastal Carolina	47	2
123	Colorado State	45.5	2
124	Middle Tennessee	45.5	2
125	Northern Illinois	45.5	1
126	Akron	44.5	2
127	Bowling Green	44.5	2
128	UTEP	44.5	2
129	New Mexico State	44	2.5
130	Louisiana-Monroe	42.5	2
131	Georgia State	42	1
132	Kent State	42	1
133	Ball State	39.5	2.5
134	Sam Houston State	37.5	0.5
135	Charlotte	36.5	1
136	Massachusetts	28.5	1

Here are my Week 15 power ratings adjustments:

Up: Western Michigan +1.5, Navy +1.5, Iowa +1.5, Arizona +2.5, New Mexico +2, Utah State +1.5, Texas +1.5, North Texas +2.5, Texas Tech +2.5, Vanderbilt +2.5, James Madison +3.5, Louisville +1.5, South Florida +2.5, App State +2, Ohio State +1.5, Miami (FL) +1.5, LSU +2, TCU +1.5, Troy +1.5, Texas State +1.5, Oklahoma State +2.5, Jacksonville State +1.5, Miami (OH) +1, UNLV +2.5

Down: Memphis -3, Utah -2.5, Arizona State -2.5, Colorado State -4, San Diego State -1.5, Boise State -3, Temple -2.5, Florida State -2.5, West Virginia -3, Tennessee -3, Coastal Carolina -4.5, Kentucky -2.5, Duke -2, Rutgers -2.5, Syracuse -2.5, Oklahoma -2.5, Auburn -2, Cincinnati -3, Baylor -2, Sam Houston State -3, Louisiana -2, Iowa State -2.5, SMU -2.5, Virginia -2.5

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Coastal Carolina -4.5: Had this line too short to begin with (as evidenced by the James Madison +3.5 adjustment) and also Tim Beck was fired, though that’s probably addition by subtraction with an excellent up-and-coming coordinator in Jeremiah Johnson as the interim.

Colorado State -4: The Rams had a terrible season. Awful. This is more about setting up their rating for next season than anything moving forward, obviously, as they are not a bowl team.

James Madison +3.5: A bump for now, but Bob Chesney is likely to get hired somewhere, so this is a work in progress.

A bunch of -3 adjustments: A variety of reasons here; bad performances, bad finishes to the season, bad reads by me. Just setting most of these up for bowl season or the offseason.

My Week 15 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
12/5	Kennesaw State	Jacksonville State	+1
	Troy	James Madison	-25
	North Texas	Tulane	+3.5
	UNLV	Boise State	-2.5
12/6	BYU	Texas Tech (N – Arlington)	-11
	Miami (OH)	Western Michigan (N – Detroit)	-2
	Georgia	Alabama (N – Atlanta)	-0.5
	Duke	Virginia (N – Charlotte)	-5
	Indiana	Ohio State (N – Indy)	-4

Some games to consider based on my lines vs. the market:

Kennesaw State +1.5 (-1) vs. Jacksonville State: All of these numbers should be pretty tight at this stage of the game with so many data points. The four Friday games are at home sites and the five Saturday games are neutral. I personally have Kennesaw State slightly favored here, even with HFA for Jacksonville State, so this one’s notable to me.

UNLV +3.5 (+2.5) at Boise State: The weather is a concern here, as UNLV had an awful performance on the road at Wyoming, but did play better at Colorado State and Nevada. Boise State rolled by 25 in the first meeting on the Smurf Turf, so I think that’s playing a factor here as well. Maddux Madsen isn’t playing, though, and he had 4 TD in the first game.

Alabama +2 (-0.5) vs. Georgia: Another one like Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State where I don’t have a huge discrepancy with the line, but do have the other team favored. I’m not sure if Georgia is granted any home-field advantage for the game being in Atlanta, but I’m not giving them any. Alabama has been in this environment a lot.

Virginia -3 (-5) vs. Duke: As the season has gone along, I’ve grown to appreciate this Virginia team. By no means do I think they’re a great team, but I do think they’re a better team than Duke.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.