Week 15 College Football Playoff Rankings

The fighting we saw on the field in Week 14 now goes into a conference room, as the College Football Playoff Committee tries to make sense of what we saw last week. The Rivalry Week action will give the CFP Rankings a major shake-up on Tuesday and conference championship games will decide who stays and who goes in the Top 12.

College Football Playoff Rankings Week 14 Relevant Results

Big Ten

Michigan 13, Ohio State 10

 

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Penn State 44, Maryland 7

Indiana 66, Purdue 0

Illinois 38, Northwestern 28

SEC

Georgia 44, Georgia Tech 42 (8 OT)

Ole Miss 26, Mississippi State 14

Texas 17, Texas A&M 7

Alabama 28, Auburn 14

Tennessee 36, Vanderbilt 23

South Carolina 17, Clemson 14

Missouri 28, Arkansas 21

Big 12

Colorado 52, Oklahoma State 0

Arizona State 49, Arizona 7

Iowa State 29, Kansas State 21

BYU 30, Houston 18

Mountain West

Boise State 34, Oregon State 18

UNLV 38, Nevada 14

ACC

Syracuse 42, Miami (FL) 38

SMU 38, California 6

South Carolina 17, Clemson 14

AAC

Memphis 34, Tulane 24

Independent

Notre Dame 49, USC 35

College Football Playoff Rankings Analysis & Championship Game Scenarios

How did the Week 14 results impact the teams and conferences? What are the tiebreakers and title game scenarios?

Big Ten

Arguably the most devastating loss in the Ohio State/Michigan rivalry won’t keep the Buckeyes out of the Top 12, and it may not even keep them from having a home game. Ryan Day shouldn’t be coaching that game, but as of Sunday morning, the administration, led by new AD Ross Bjork, hadn’t sent him to the gallows. For what it’s worth, Bjork asked Urban Meyer several times about being the head coach at Texas A&M when he was the AD. We’ll see how far Ohio State drops, but by being No. 2 in the rankings, they’ll have more than enough of a safety net as they fall.

The real question now is what happens with Indiana. In theory, the Ohio State loss to a 7-5 Michigan team hurts their position a little bit. The 66-0 win over Purdue showed that Curt Cignetti believed his team needed some style points and they certainly got them against the overmatched Boilermakers.

Indiana dropped five spots with the loss to Ohio State, very much opening up the possibility of getting left out thanks to a three-loss Alabama team or even Clemson as an at-large. They might have done enough to save themselves.

Oregon and Penn State now play for the Big Ten title and a bye. Remember the four highest-ranked conference champions receive a first-round bye. Even that picture is a little murky now.

SEC

Georgia avoided potential disaster with the eight-overtime win over Georgia Tech. But, the Bulldogs are also in the SEC Championship Game against Texas, so they could have lost, won that game, and got in anyway, even if the Committee pushed them outside of the Top 12. Personally, I don’t think they would have.

Alabama and South Carolina are the teams in the spotlight here. The Gamecocks got a very gritty win over Clemson, but they’ve also lost to Alabama and Ole Miss, the teams that were in the spots directly above them in last week’s CFP rankings. On the other hand, you could argue that the aggregate of the Texas A&M and Clemson wins are better than the two best wins for Alabama and Ole Miss (both beat Georgia). Missouri winning to stay in the Top 25 also helps the Gamecocks and Crimson Tide.

The Committee would set a potentially dangerous precedent by putting South Carolina over Alabama and Ole Miss, though I do think they deserve to be ranked above the Rebels. I’m curious if the Committee considers the LaNorris Sellers injury against LSU and the incompetence of the officiating crew in that game.

Tennessee is safely in. Georgia is, too, win or lose against Texas.

Big 12

As it turned out, we had the potential for chaos in the Big 12 and got nothing of the sort. While Colorado had a massive win over Oklahoma State on Friday, it was all for naught. The most likely scenario of Arizona State and Iowa State holding serve came to fruition and the two will play in Jerry World for a spot in the tournament.

Where it gets interesting is that the four highest-ranked conference champions get a bye. Right now, that is Oregon/Penn State, Texas/Georgia, SMU, and Boise State. However, if Clemson, who will drop with the South Carolina loss, beats SMU, they’ll make the playoff.

Arizona State and Iowa State will both move up with the Clemson and Tulane losses, but will they move up enough to secure a bye with a win on Saturday? Obviously they would need UNLV over Boise State to feel more comfortable.

Mountain West

A classic “For All The Marbles” game on the Smurf Turf comes up on Friday between Boise State and UNLV. The winner goes to the College Football Playoff. The loser goes home to play in a consolation prize bowl game. Boise State is -4 on the early lines, interesting because Boise State was -4 in Las Vegas around Halloween and got the win and cover.

If Boise State wins, they’ll be the No. 4 seed and get a bye. If UNLV wins, they’ll be in the playoff, but are likely to be on the road in the first round.

ACC

This is where we get some fireworks. Miami lost to Syracuse, putting Clemson, who has to shake off a rivalry loss in the Palmetto Bowl, in the ACC Title Game against SMU. Is there a scenario in which the Committee leaves Miami in the Top 12?

To me, last week’s rankings showed some ACC bias with Miami at 6, SMU at 9, and Clemson inexplicably at 12. Clemson should’ve been around 15 in my estimation. The Tigers don’t really have any good wins and now picked up a third loss. But, they can get in by winning a toss-up game in Charlotte, which will essentially be a home game for the Tigers.

Clemson was not punished for being a two-loss ACC team with three three-loss SEC teams behind them. How will Miami be viewed as a two-loss ACC team? I will be very interested to see how the CFP ranks Miami and I think people might be very upset on Tuesday because I think they’ll still be viewed as a Top 12 team despite also having no wins of consequence.

AAC

The AAC was eliminated from College Football Playoff contention with Tulane’s loss to Memphis. The game had no bearing on the AAC Championship Game, which will be Tulane vs. Army. The game will be in West Point, as Army ran the table in the AAC at 8-0 and Tulane had Thursday’s defeat. But, this game has no bearing on the Playoff now.

Independent

Notre Dame picked up a good win over USC with the help of two pick-sixes and may move up to No. 4 temporarily in the CFP rankings, but they will be the No. 5 seed because they cannot win a conference. They are a lock to host a home game in South Bend.

Week 15 College Football Playoff Rankings Projection

1. Oregon

2. Texas

3. Penn State

4. Notre Dame

5. Georgia

6. SMU

7. Ohio State

8. Tennessee

9. Boise State

10. Indiana

11. Alabama

12. Miami (FL)

13. South Carolina

14. Arizona State

15. Clemson

16. Ole Miss

17. Iowa State

18. Missouri

19. UNLV

20. Illinois

21. BYU

22. Illinois

23. Colorado

24. Syracuse

25. Texas A&M

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