Week 2 College Football Betting Splits Systems and Picks:
If you haven’t been following my DK Betting Splits work over the last couple of years, these systems, and the splits, for that matter, have become popular. In short, the numbers that DK provides in this feed summarize the percentage of the money handle and number of bets there is on each side of a wagering option for the games in most major sports. I have continued tracking and updating those systems in order for bettors to focus on the best ways to use the numbers. Here are the updated numbers for this weekend’s college football action.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 505-568 ATS (47.1%). This angle has produced consistently over the last few seasons, and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span who have given you a small profit in three straight years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PENN STATE, TEXAS, PITTSBURGH, ILLINOIS, OLE MISS, CLEMSON, RUTGERS, CINCINNATI, OREGON, COLORADO, WISCONSIN, NORTH CAROLINA, MEMPHIS, TULANE, NEBRASKA, USC, TULSA, BYU
CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 192-220 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%, in 2023, it was 46.7%, and in 2024, it was 46.6%. This is incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS, SMU, CLEMSON, OREGON, MARSHALL, LSU, USC, ALABAMA, BYU
CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 263-297 ATS (47%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in 2024, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LIBERTY, ILLINOIS, OLE MISS, NORTH TEXAS, WEST VIRGINIA, NORTH CAROLINA, MEMPHIS, TULANE, UCLA, TULSA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the side of majority handle when it goes against the grain can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SOUTH FLORIDA, SAN DIEGO STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When a majority of 55% or more of number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past three seasons, this majority group has gone 129-106 ATS (54.9%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4, actually, and it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS, MICHIGAN
CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: Contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge HOME favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. Typically, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 60-40 ATS (60%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PENN STATE, TEXAS TECH, TEXAS, INDIANA, TEXAS A&M, CLEMSON, OREGON, WISCONSIN, LSU, AUBURN, NEBRASKA, USC, ALABAMA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 57-42 (56.7%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): FRESNO STATE-OREGON STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 157-127 (55.3%). This system improved its win percentage in ’24 (57.8%). This does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): FRESNO STATE-OREGON STATE, BOWLING GREEN-CINCINNATI, HOUSTON-RICE, VANDERBILT-VIRGINIA TECH, STANFORD-BYU, SAN DIEGO STATE-WASHINGTON STATE
