College Football Picks
Weekends are now reserved for sinking into the couch cushions with some snacks and beers, as we have college football on Saturday and NFL on Sundays. This is such a fascinating set of games on the college side, as we are lacking marquee matchups, especially in comparison to Week 1, but we get to see how teams, coaches, players, bettors, and oddsmakers all adjust. Week 2 college football picks certainly carry a degree of variance.
But, if you study the matchups, do your research, analyze the numbers, stay mindful of your priors while also keeping in mind what you just saw, you can predict some winners. Easier said than done, right?
Week 2 and Week 3 are huge weeks for those looking to take advantage of overreactions and under-reactions. Maybe even Week 4 now with all the new team personnel on an annual basis. Hopefully we can pick on some of that here. These picks are for Saturday, but I did write up James Madison vs. Louisville and Northern Illinois vs. Maryland as Friday previews.
There are a few Week 2 college football picks I like, so let’s get to it. Whether you agree or not, you can check out our Week 2 College Football Hub to see what others are taking and also to explore all of our college football tools, power ratings, and more.
Here are my Week 2 College Football Picks:
Odds as of Wednesday, September 3, 6:00 p.m. PT
Delaware vs. Colorado Prediction (-23.5, 50.5)
3:30 p.m. ET
This is a rarity for Colorado. During the 2023 season, they played 11 games against Power Five opponents, with the lone game not fitting the bill as the rivalry game against Colorado State. Last season, Colorado did play a FCS school, but perennial power North Dakota State was that opponent.
Now, they face a Delaware team that they outclass from a talent standpoint all over the field. While it wasn’t a great first impression from Kaidon Salter and a rebuilt Colorado roster, at least they played Georgia Tech, a good opponent with a dual-threat QB. Haynes King had 156 yards and three of Georgia Tech’s four offensive touchdowns. They just couldn’t stop him when he had designed runs or was able to improvise.
Delaware QB Nick Minicucci is not that guy. He did have a nice game last week against Delaware State, but the Hornets are ranked 260th out of 266 teams for Jeff Sagarin. He’s not the dual-threat guy that King is. Not even close. And the rest of the talent around him is barely FBS-caliber, as the Blue Hens are in their transitional season to the FBS ranks.
This is really the first chance in the Sanders era to put a thumping on an inferior team that isn’t playing in a rivalry game. Furthermore, how will the Blue Hens, who do not have FBS-caliber depth due to the lower number of scholarships at the FCS level, fare with the elevation in Boulder?
This one should get ugly early and even uglier late.
Pick: Colorado -23.5
Western Kentucky vs. Toledo Prediction (-7, 59.5)
7 p.m. ET
Toledo had a close, respectable loss to Kentucky last week and that seems to be a driving force in the market here, as the Rockets are taking money against this week’s Kentucky opponent. Western Kentucky’s win over a really bad Sam Houston State team wasn’t as close as the 41-24 score would indicate and the Hilltoppers crushed an overmatched North Alabama team.
Maverick McIvor and his OC Rick Bowie were a package deal from Abilene Christian and they have been good together. McIvor has an 8/0 TD/INT ratio and has a 69.5% completion rate for 706 yards. So this should be a much different offense from what Toledo faced last week with Zach Calzada, as the Rockets held him to just 85 yards passing, but gave up over five yards per carry. Most of that came on the Dante Dowdell 79-yard TD run.
I guess the market believes that what was a solid Toledo performance on defense will transfer over, but the Rockets didn’t run the ball effectively at all last week and Gleason may have a tough time putting some distance in this one. If nothing else, a pass-happy team always has a chance to find the back door.
Shop around here, as 7.5s were available as of Wednesday night and may still be out there in the lead-up to the game.
Pick: Western Kentucky +7
Tulsa vs. New Mexico State Prediction (+4.5, 52.5)
9 p.m. ET
Oh yeah, baby! A barnburner! Tulsa and New Mexico State come together in Las Cruces and I have to be honest, the movement towards the Golden Hurricane here has gone a bit too far in my opinion. Truth be told, my Week 2 power ratings still have New Mexico State favored, even after what appears to be a really impressive win for Tulsa.
Well, Abilene Christian had a 15-play, 87-yard drive in the first quarter that ended with a turnover on downs on 4th-and-Goal at the 1. The Wildcats also had a seven-play, 74-yard drive stopped on 4th-and-Goal at the 2. The defense did adjust in the second half and the depth difference between the two teams played out eventually in the 35-7 win, but it could have been a very different first half, one that potentially could have been 14-10 Abilene Christian at the half.
New Mexico State beat a bad Bryant team 19-3. Logan Fife was just 14-of-31 passing, but he is a guy who has been around a while and should develop more of a rapport with his receivers. The ground game did very little for the Aggies as well. I can understand why people are low on them.
However, this is Tulsa’s first road favorite role since 2022 and they’ll be playing at elevation in Week 2 of the season. The Golden Hurricane will likely have to fly into El Paso or Albuquerque and take a bus to Las Cruces. It’s just not an easy game in a lot of ways, especially for a team with seven wins over the last two seasons laying a road number.
I also like Under 52.5 as well, as neither team created a lot of explosive plays in Week 1.
Picks: New Mexico State +4.5, Under 52.5
For more best bets and Week 2 College Football content, click here.
