Adam Burke shares his weekly college football power ratings
Upsets and blowouts were the theme of Week 1, as we saw a lot of non-competitive games, but also got some pretty surprising results with Colorado and Texas State both winning outright as dogs of more than 20 points. We also got some expected results, as a lot of underdogs failed to remotely put a scare into their superior opponents.
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That should continue to be the theme early in the season, as non-conference play rolls on. There are going to be substantial mismatches for the next few weeks, but all of these teams will start to settle in one way or another. We did see some really slow starts out of certain teams and then saw them really rise up after halftime. We’re dealing with 18 to 24-year-old kids here, so those things are going to happen as well.
As I mentioned last week, I go through a three-step process each week when it comes to updating my College Football Power Ratings.
– Compare my line to the closing line
– Study the box score
– Look for injury information
When I talk about studying the box score, I’m not just looking at yardage. I’m looking for special teams touchdowns. I’m looking for turnover margin discrepancies. I’m looking for yards per play differentials. Drive logs and play-by-play data are really important parts of the process because raw yardage and the final score don’t always tell the full story.
I’m also looking for things that teams can build on. For example, it was against NC A&T, but UAB QB Jacob Zeno was 38-of-41 passing. That’s a ridiculous amount of completions for a lot of pass attempts. I’m generally low on UAB between the personnel losses and new head coach Trent Dilfer, but maybe there’s something there, so I gave UAB a bump.
Similarly, while Sam Houston State got shut out by BYU, the Bearkats only allowed 3.83 yards per play, so their defense stood up well against a Big 12 (in name only) opponent. They got a bump from me, since it sure looks like their offense is legit.
The early part of the season does present some challenges. Every team will play its best and worst game of the season at some point. What if that game was in Week 1? The challenge is in not overreacting to one data point, while also trying to react the proper amount. Colorado is the most obvious example in Week 1. This was an unprecedented situation with over 80 players in and out via the transfer portal and a coach who had never coached at the FBS level.
Lost in the Shedeur Sanders hype and the big upset win is that Colorado still allowed 42 points and over seven yards per carry to a team that lost its starting QB, top two RB, and top WR from last season. It is a unique situation and the most blatant one of the week, but not the only one.
The other factor that comes into play at this time of year is admitting that you were wrong. Nobody likes to do that, especially in the sports betting world, which is an ego-driven business. I admitted defeat on Louisiana Tech this week after they got obliterated by SMU. They’re the first, but they won’t be the last.
But, there were also some wins. I was purposely low on Minnesota and they looked quite bad against Nebraska – it’s just that Nebraska looked quite bad as well. When those positions are validated, I’ll stick with them and likely stick with them a lot longer. I’ll pull the ripcord quickly when I know I’m beat, but I’ll dig in when I get one right.
As I’ve mentioned before, this is an inexact science and forever will be. It is open to a lot of interpretation and college football is inherently volatile given the number of teams, the talent gaps, and the ages and maturity levels of the players. The boat will always spring leaks, but you also have enough sealant to fix as many as possible.
Here are my Week 2 College Football Power Ratings:
