Week 2 College Football Power Ratings and Projections for Every Game

Week 2 College Football Power Ratings

It has always been my belief that making your own numbers in any sport is both art and science. But, I do believe that as the season goes along, there is a lot more art than science to the process. In some respects, the hardest part is getting a good foundation to start the season. If you don’t have that, you’ll probably never have a good set of power ratings. But, those priors and all that spring and summer research can go away in a hurry if a team wildly overperforms or underperforms relative to the expectation you set for them and the expectations that oddsmakers placed on them.

The transition from Week 1 to Week 2 is always one of the most challenging for me with college football power ratings. We’ve seen one game from nearly every team and two from a handful of teams who had Week 0 opponents. As I always like to say, you might see a team’s best game and a team’s worst game and you don’t know when that is, but the knee-jerk reaction is always to think that Week 1 falls into one of those two categories.

Take Clemson, for instance. They got waxed 51-10 by LSU and took a big dive in my power ratings for that performance. Is that who the Tigers are this season? Maybe. Is LSU just that good and was I sleeping on them a little bit? Also a maybe. But, you can’t do nothing. You can’t just draw a line through a game saying it’s just the first one and blame it on the turnover or the coaching or the new QB or whatever and chalk it up as one of those things that happens.

Similarly, take UMass. The Minutemen had the best performance we’ve seen from them in probably a decade with their win over Rutgers. The natural reaction is to blame it on Rutgers and be like, “man, they really suck this season” and that sentiment may very well be right. It is also possible that Joe Harasymiak has settled in with his second season and gotten some better players. It is also possible that UMass gets slaughtered by their next FBS opponent.

Take Oregon as another example. It was another Dan Lanning Special early in the season, much like the one he had two years ago against Boise State. All of the talk will be about how a 24-point favorite only won by 7 and was actually at risk of losing the game outright. The results matter, but so does the trek to get to the final point. Per Game On Paper, Oregon had a 71st percentile performance in EPA/Play, while Boise State had a 34th percentile performance based off of 2025 numbers since there isn’t enough 2026 data to use.

The Ducks had 7.91 yards per play, a 91st percentile effort. The Broncos had 4.26 yards per play, a 33rd percentile effort. In more basic terms, Oregon outgained Boise State 506-277, running one fewer play from scrimmage. So, what matters more? The 34-27 final or the very one-sided box score?

The science leads you to the art. Quantifying what happened, how it happened, and why it happened is the scientific part, based in the data and the play-by-play of the game. Determining how big or how little of an adjustment to make is the art, at least in my case. I don’t have a definitive blueprint to say that outgaining an opponent by 3.65 yards means I adjust Team A by X points and Team B by X points. Also, for better or worse, the optics of the 34-27 final score will have some sort of measurable impact on how the betting market rates the two teams going into the next week.

In that respect, there are some hefty adjustments that I have made this week and have also decided to make some bigger Week 1 to Week 2 adjustments than I normally would. Like I said, I don’t want to be too biased over one data point, but at the same time, it does matter. And with the transfer portal and all the personnel chaos, I think it’s a lot harder to pick up the pieces and turn them into something useful than it is to just get a good week of practice in and fix a litany of issues.

My three-step process hasn’t changed with updating a team’s power rating:

• Compare my line to the closing line (and how the line moved in the process)
• Study the box scores
• Seek out any injury information I can find

That last one is extremely difficult for a lot of Group of Six programs, so I try to adjust when I know something obvious and hope that I can either buy back a position if something breaks during the week or just hope for the best.

Week 2 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Ohio State	93	3.5
2	Notre Dame	92.5	3.5
3	Indiana	91.5	3.5
4	Georgia	90.5	2.5
5	Texas	90.5	3.5
6	Miami (Florida)	90	3
7	Oregon	90	3.5
8	LSU	87.5	3
9	Texas A&M	86.5	2
10	Texas Tech	86.5	3.5
11	USC	86	3
12	Alabama	85.5	3.5
13	Oklahoma	84	3
14	Mississippi	83.5	3.5
15	Florida	82.5	2
16	Penn State	82	2.5
17	Tennessee	81	2.5
18	BYU	79.5	3.5
19	Washington	79	3.5
20	Missouri	78.5	3.5
21	Iowa	78	3.5
22	Louisville	78	3.5
23	SMU	78	3.5
24	South Carolina	78	2.5
25	Michigan	77	2.5
26	Utah	77	2.5
27	Pittsburgh	76.5	2.5
28	Kansas State	76	3
29	Virginia	76	2
30	Auburn	75	2
31	Nebraska	75	2
32	Vanderbilt	75	2.5
33	Arizona	74.5	3
34	Houston	74.5	2
35	UCLA	74.5	1.5
36	Florida State	74	2.5
37	Virginia Tech	74	2
38	Kentucky	73.5	2
39	Clemson	73	2.5
40	Illinois	72.5	2.5
41	Arizona State	72	2
42	Boise State	71.5	3.5
43	TCU	71.5	2.5
44	Wisconsin	71.5	2
45	Minnesota	71	2.5
46	Baylor	70.5	1.5
47	Duke	70.5	2.5
48	Mississippi State	70.5	2
49	Kansas	69.5	2.5
50	Northwestern	69.5	1.5
51	Georgia Tech	69	2
52	North Carolina State	69	2.5
53	Wake Forest	69	2
54	Arkansas	68.5	1.5
55	Cincinnati	68.5	1.5
56	Maryland	68.5	2
57	Memphis	68	2.5
58	Oklahoma State	68	2
59	UCF	68	2
60	West Virginia	68	2
61	Colorado	67	2.5
62	Michigan State	67	1.5
63	North Dakota State	67	3.5
64	UNLV	66.5	2.5
65	California	66	2
66	Navy	66	2.5
67	North Carolina	66	2
68	Iowa State	65.5	2.5
69	San Diego State	65.5	2
70	Syracuse	65.5	2.5
71	Fresno State	65	2
72	New Mexico	65	2
73	UTSA	65	3.5
74	Purdue	64	1
75	Stanford	63.5	1.5
76	Army	63	2.5
77	Rutgers	63	2
78	Boston College	62	2
79	James Madison	62	3.5
80	Texas State	62	2
81	South Florida	61.5	3
82	Tulane	61.5	2.5
83	Washington State	61.5	3
84	East Carolina	61	2
85	Air Force	60.5	2
86	Old Dominion	60	1.5
87	Western Michigan	60	3.5
88	Liberty	59	2.5
89	Marshall	58.5	3.5
90	Tulsa	58.5	1
91	Colorado State	57.5	2
92	North Texas	57.5	2.5
93	Toledo	57.5	3.5
94	Louisiana-Lafayette	57	2
95	Troy	57	3
96	Arkansas State	56.5	2.5
97	Hawai’i	56.5	3
98	Louisiana Tech	56.5	2
99	Nevada	56.5	1
100	Oregon State	56.5	3.5
101	Utah State	56.5	3
102	Georgia Southern	56	3.5
103	Jacksonville State	56	3.5
104	Miami (Ohio)	56	3.5
105	Delaware	55.5	1
106	Kennesaw State	55.5	2.5
107	Temple	55.5	2
108	Connecticut	55	3
109	Florida Atlantic	55	1.5
110	Appalachian State	54.5	2
111	Florida International	54.5	2
112	Wyoming	54.5	2
113	South Alabama	54	2
114	Ohio	53.5	3.5
115	Western Kentucky	53.5	3
116	San Jose State	53	2.5
117	Coastal Carolina	52.5	2
118	Central Michigan	51.5	3
119	Rice	51.5	3
120	UAB	50.5	2.5
121	Eastern Michigan	50	2.5
122	New Mexico State	50	2.5
123	Southern Mississippi	49.5	2
124	Middle Tennessee	48.5	1.5
125	Georgia State	48	1
126	Buffalo	47.5	2
127	Missouri State	47.5	2
128	Northern Illinois	47.5	1.5
129	Sam Houston State	47.5	2
130	Bowling Green	47	2
131	UTEP	47	1
132	Kent State	46.5	1
133	Sacramento State	46.5	2
134	Akron	46	2
135	Ball State	44	3
136	Louisiana-Monroe	44	2
137	Massachusetts	43.5	1
138	Charlotte	41.5	1

Like I said last week, I will include my adjustments and typically some notes on why I made the moves of 3+ points.

Week 2 PR Adjustments

Up: UMass +3.5, UAB +1, San Jose State +1.5, Michigan State +1, USC +4, Miami (FL) +2.5, Pitt +3, Penn State +1.5, Duke +1.5, FIU +1.5, Florida +2.5, Indiana +1, Tulsa +4, Alabama +1, Nebraska +1.5, Texas A&M +1, New Mexico +5, Colorado State +2.5, UCLA +3.5, Nevada +4, Sam Houston State +3, Memphis +2.5, LSU +3, Kentucky +2, North Dakota State +3.5, Kansas State +2, Louisville +1.5

Down: Rutgers -3.5, Akron -2.5, Georgia Tech -2.5, Illinois -1.5, Buffalo -4.5, Eastern Michigan -1.5, Toledo -1, Stanford -2.5, Miami (OH) -3, James Madison -2.5, Michigan -5, Tulane -3, South Florida -3, FAU -2.5, Oklahoma State -2.5, East Carolina -2.5, UL Monroe -2, Ohio -1.5, Central Michigan -2.5, Western Kentucky -6, Oregon -2, Troy -1.5, Hawaii -3.5, Clemson -4.5, Bowling Green -3.5, Charlotte -3, Arkansas -2, Old Dominion -1.5, Utah State -3, Missouri State -2.5, Temple -1.5, Auburn -2.5, California -2.5

Some notes on the biggest movers:

New Mexico +5: Turns out the loss of Jack Layne didn’t really mean much, at least in the opener. This is a correction to the adjustment I made to the loss of Layne, plus a little more on top for having a light number and a bad bet on Central Michigan.

USC +4: Jayden Maiava looks to have taken another step forward. Also, a truly suffocating defensive effort against Fresno State.

Nevada +4: Dead wrong on this line and this game, as the Wolf Pack took the Hilltoppers up the hill and threw them down it in Reno. Maybe Jeff Choate has an offense after racking up 7.7 yards per carry.

Tulsa +4: Tre Lamb is doing WORK in the Sooner State. Eric Morris, with basically his North Texas offense, averaged just 4.28 YPP against the Golden Hurricane.

Western Kentucky -6: WKU was part of Nevada’s second-biggest win since 2021. Not a great way to open the season.

Michigan -5: Pretty self-explanatory here. They also should have lost.

Buffalo -4.5: A ROUGH showing for Pete Lembo’s Bulls against Albany on Thursday night. The weather was a bit of a factor, but 4.56 YPP is sad.

Clemson -4.5: Self-explanatory here, too. The Dabo magic might just be gone.

Lots of noteworthy adjustments in the 3 to 3.5-point range. Those will continue as we go forward over the next few weeks. I was more patient on some teams than others, but time is not on our side for being overly patient, so the next two weeks will show a lot.

My Week 2 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away	Home	Line
9/11	Rutgers	Boston College	-1
	Missouri	Kansas	+6.5
9/12	Oregon	Oklahoma State	+20
	Oklahoma	Michigan	+4.5
	App State	East Carolina	-8.5
	Wake Forest	Purdue	+4
	Old Dominion	Virginia Tech	-16
	Penn State	Temple	+24.5
	Arizona State	Texas A&M	-16.5
	South Florida	Army	-4
	Washington State	Kansas State	-17.5
	Western Kentucky	Georgia	-39.5
	Utah State	Washington	-26
	Arizona	BYU	-8.5
	UCF	Pitt	-11
	Cal	Syracuse	-2
	Maryland	UConn	+10.5
	UTSA	Texas State	+1
	Duke	Illinois	-4.5
	Eastern Michigan	Michigan State	-18.5
	UL Monroe	UAB	-9
	Mississippi State	Minnesota	-3
	Alabama	Kentucky	+10
	Rice	Notre Dame	-44.5
	UNLV	North Texas	+6.5
	Delaware	Vanderbilt	-22
	Memphis	Boise State	-7
	Buffalo	FIU	-9
	Jacksonville State	Ohio	-1
	South Alabama	Tulane	-10
	Tulsa	Sam Houston State	+11
	Bowling Green	Nebraska	-30
	Tennessee	Georgia Tech	+14.5
	MTSU	Marshall	-13.5
	Georgia State	Kennesaw State	-10
	San Diego State	UCLA	-10.5
	Georgia Southern	Clemson	-19.5
	Navy	FAU	+9.5
	Iowa State	Iowa	-16
	Southern Miss	Auburn	-27.5
	Louisiana Tech	LSU	-34
	Ohio State	Texas	-1
	Texas Tech	Oregon State	+26.5
	Charlotte	Mississippi	-45.5
	North Dakota State	Air Force	+4.5
	Arkansas	Utah	-11
	Sac State	Fresno State	-20.5
	Louisiana	USC	-32
	New Mexico State	Hawaii	-9.5

Games to consider:

Pitt -7.5 (-11) vs. UCF: It was Miami (OH), but Pitt dominated that game and I gave them a bump as a result. We’ll see if that was the right move because that’s why this line wound up where it is for me.

Minnesota +1.5 (-3) vs. Mississippi State: This one isn’t based on any adjustments or anything. Just what my process came up with over the summer.

Navy -5.5 (-9.5) at FAU: I downgraded FAU pretty big after getting pummeled by Florida. Big talent disadvantage in that game, but the offense was pretty bad and they’ll get limited possessions here.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.