The 2026 tennis season reaches its peak with the 2026 US Open in New York, with the final Grand Slam of the year getting underway at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. The summer hard-court tune-ups are behind us, and now the margin for error disappears as the best players in the world battle across best-of-five and grueling best-of-three tests in the Flushing Meadows heat.
The fortnight always brings unmatched betting value on both tours, offering an early look at physical durability, tactical adjustments, and draw paths that could shape the championship picture. There is no shortage of high-level matchups to break down, and I’ll be delivering daily betting analysis and best bets throughout the tournament.
With that in mind, keep reading for my top tennis picks and best bets for Day 10 of the US Open on Tuesday, September 8.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Linda Noskova vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka showed some real mental toughness in her win against Taylor Townsend, as she got broken a few times and could have easily collapsed. After all, she had done so several times throughout the summer. But the Belarusian ultimately got through in straight sets, and she played at a relatively high level. Now, Sabalenka will look to take out the Wimbledon champion, and she’s a heavy favorite to do so. And while I do like her chances of winning the match, I think the pricing is a little off here.
Sabalenka is 2-0 against Noskova, and the Belarusian hasn’t yet dropped a set. However, they haven’t met since Indian Wells, and it does feel like Noskova is a different player now. Noskova’s hold percentage this season is a career-high 80.4%, which puts her right behind Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina on the WTA Tour. She’s truly one of the best servers on the planet, and that’s something that gives you a chance in any matchup. Noskova has also won a Slam now, meaning she has matured a ton in crunch-time situations.
It just isn’t too hard to imagine Noskova serving her way into some late-set situations against Sabalenka, and that’s when the Belarusian’s recent letdowns will weigh on her. Sure, we haven’t seen it happen in New York just yet, but this is also the best player she has faced, by far.
With this being a meeting between two high hold-rate players, it’s just tempting to take Noskova to win a set. I also considered the Over on the game total, but I feel a little better about backing the underdog. Also, considering Noskova’s big serving and aggressive baseline game, I’m also sprinkling the moneyline at +220. Sabalenka should be favored in this match, but I don’t give her a 70% chance of winning — at least not in 2026.
Bet: Noskova To Win A Set (-122 – 1.5 units) & Noskova ML (+220 – 0.5 units)
NOTE: I have Jessica Pegula to win Quarter 2 on the women’s side and Frances Tiafoe to win Quarter 3 on the men’s side. That’s why I’m not touching those matches. If anything, I’ll look to hedge. I also don’t have any strong opinions on what Carlos Alcaraz vs. Ben Shelton will look like, so I’m keeping my Tuesday card relatively light.
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
