Week 2 College Football Predictions
It was a glorious first full week of college football and it felt so good to throw on my jersey, cook up some tailgate food and watch some gargantuan matchups in Week 1. Week 1 article bets (Monday article + model alignment picks on Thursday) went 4-2, and really should’ve been 5-1 but the Michigan State backup QB threw a “meaningless” pick-six in the final minutes of what was otherwise a shutout Sparty win against Western Michigan. Nonetheless, the betting gods evened the score for me with a miraculous South Carolina cover yesterday – apologies if you were on VT. I’ve already fired on several Week 2 bets so far, so let’s take a look at a few of my favorites that are still worth taking after the initial Sunday line movement frenzy:
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.
Virginia (+3) vs NC State
Unfortunately for me last week, I drastically underestimated the Cavaliers and backed Coastal Carolina. QB Chandler Morris threw for 264 yards and 2 TDs, and WR Cameron Ross had 7 catches for 124 yards and a TD, plus a kickoff return TD for Virginia in a dominating 48 to 7 win to destroy my bet on the Chants. This week, however, I won’t make that mistake. I faded NC State last week against ECU. That proved to be a wise decision, and I’m doing it again here. NC State dropped a half point in their TSI rating after that game, while Virginia got a 1.5-point bump, bringing this week’s TSI projection to a pick ‘em in Raleigh. For what it’s worth, based solely on what these teams did last week (no priors), Virginia was 27 points better than NC State – take that with a grain of salt.
College Football Pick: Virginia +3 or better
Ole Miss (-10) vs Kentucky
Remember last year when Ole Miss was considered a playoff contender and they took Georgia down to the wire and then inexplicably lost to Kentucky to derail that whole conversation? I’m betting Lane Kiffin does. Ole Miss throttled Georgia State in its opener, scoring 63 points on 81 plays with 8.6 yards per play. Kentucky, conversely, escaped MAC juggernaut Toledo in a snoozefest of a game. In that game, Kentucky was outgained in total and had fewer yards per play than the Rockets, scoring 24 points on 66 plays. TSI projects Ole Miss -15, which gets us through some relatively key numbers, plus factoring in the revenge angle for the Rebels makes me think the Lane Train might run this up if he can. Again, for funsies, removing priors, I’d make this projection Ole Miss -36.
College Football Pick: Ole Miss -13 or better
Nebraska/Akron Under 48
Nebraska escaped Cincinnati in Week 1 – although we cashed a Cincinnati ticket – in a rockfight of a game in which Nebraska only posted 4.5 yards per play and scored just 20 points on 78 plays. Akron played an even less exciting game, getting shut out by – checks notes – Wyoming en route to just 3.5 yards per play and 0 points on 66 plays. I think the Nebraska defense, which held Cincinnati under 5 yards per play, will completely eliminate any threat of Akron contributing much to this total, and I have doubts that the Husker offense is explosive enough to score seven touchdowns themselves, nor do I really think Matt Rhule is a “hang 50 on ‘em” kind of coach. TSI projects just 43.5 points here, and removing priors would only project 23.5.
College Football Pick: Under 47 or better
For more Week 2 college football predictions and analysis, visit the College Football Week 2 Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
